Polish Political Science Yearbook

9

Authors: Bartosz Kozicki, Jarosław Zelkowski, Szymon Mitkow, Mariusz Gontarczyk

The study concerns forecasting the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army based on information obtained from the website: https://data.worldbank.org (The World Bank, 9.03.2020). The research began with a comparative analysis of the number of soldiers in the armies of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea for a comparative analysis of the number of armies of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation arises from Russian policy in the region of the Middle East countries, including the impact on world oil prices. The comparative analysis showed the similarities and differences in the dynamics of changes in the number of both armies dynamically. Subsequently, the primary time series data analysis on the number of Saudi Arabian troops was performed. The study selected methods for predicting raw data: Holt’s exponential smoothing and Klein’s model for the future. The next stage of the research was forecasting and the analysis and evaluation of the obtained forecasts. Klein’s model was the best forecasting model. The forecast of the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army for 2020 is 251454, and for 2021, it has increased to 251006. The study ends with a summary and conclusions.

11

Authors: Marcin Czyżniewski

This article aims to analyze disputes and discussions on the powers of the President of the Republic, which have been happening since the establishment of the Czech Republic in 1993. These occurred when the President tried to interpret the provisions of the Constitution, took actions beyond their framework, or considered that his powers did not impose an obligation to act automatically. The disputes over the President’s powers were, therefore, not the result of theoretical discussions on the constitutional order of the Czech Republic, but were the result of the President’s involvement in the political life of the country, and above all, the decisions that did not correspond to the opinions and actions of the government. Disputes did not have an impact on a permanent change in the constitutional order. For example, there was no reason for an amendment to the Constitution that would extend, restrict, or clarify those powers.

11

Authors: Iwona Hofman

The purpose of the article is to describe the model and method of management of the Literary Institute and “Kultura” by Jerzy Giedroyc using the categories of circles, networks, and relations, verifying in this way the editor’s legend. The analysis covered the entire period of the Institute’s operation (1946-2000), comparing the internal periodization of the activity with the changes of the authors in the “Kultura” circle, which made it possible to distinguish between the friendly and home circle and three authors’ circles. The diaries, biographies, and letters provided the grounds to emphasize the significance of the network for building the position of “Kultura” as an opinion-forming magazine and a place of help for emigrant writers. Managing “Kultura” is presented, which is focused on creating relations and being objective. Synthesis, content analysis, and comparative methods have been used. This problem has not been discussed so far in the extensive literature on the subject.

13

Authors: Justyna Maliszewska-Nienartowicz, Marcin Kleinowski

Although the rule of law is a normative notion, it requires a multidimensional approach. It speaks to important issues of law and politics, and its respect is essential for both legal and social security. It can be observed within the European Union (EU) where the issue of respect for the rule of law by its Member States has gained particular importance. The main goal of our study is to contribute to the academic discourse concerning the EU rule of law. The analysis particularly considers the approaches adopted by the EU institutions to the definition of this concept. Consequently, the first part of the article concentrates on difficulties in defining the rule of law. The second part presents the evolution of the Court of Justice approach toward this concept. The next part contains the analysis of the attitudes presented by other EU institutions in their documents. In the conclusions, it is underlined that although the approaches of the EU institutions towards the rule of have evolved, and they have tried to define it and indicate its main components, certain issues require clarification, e.g., the relations of the rule of law with other values.

17

Authors: Michał Kubiak

Among many demographic changes, one of the most evident now is the aging of the population, the consequences of which are increasingly leaving a mark on the directions of social policy. In connection with the aging of the population and positive aspects, manifestations of ageism, based on stereotypes and negative attitudes toward older people, are also more and more noticeable. Sometimes, these are discriminatory practices against older people encountered in the health sector, the labor market, public offices, and others. The research presented in the article aimed to identify age discrimination and its manifestations among older people. The purposive sampling technique was used to choose the research sample – the assumption was to examine active older people related to a large city who get involved and participate in various activities and projects carried out for them by nongovernmental organizations. The method of a diagnostic survey with a questionnaire, which included both closed and open-ended questions, was used in the research. The research was intended to help answer the following questions: do older people notice age discrimination, and have they experienced worse treatment because of their age? How many of the surveyed seniors experienced worse treatment and what forms (most often) did it take, and where did it happen?

23

Authors: Jakub Zajączkowski

The article's objective is to analyze the main assumptions of India's strategy in the Indo-Pacific region and define the role of the US in it. The time frame of the article is determined by the assumption of power in India in 2014 by the Indian People's Party (Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as well as the opening of a new stage of the US-led Indo-Pacific rebalancing strategy, which followed China's initiation in 2013 of its Belt and Road Initiative (previously known as the One Belt One Road project). The article seeks to answer the following main research question: What role has India attributed to the United States in its Indo-Pacific strategy since 2014? It hypothesizes that the United States has assumed an increasingly significant role in India's regional strategy over the past seven years, but not to the extent of a formal alliance, only approaching at best the status of a strategic partnership. The theoretical framework used to analyze the case study of the US role in India's regional strategy is the category of institutional balancing and the assumptions of neoclassical realism. The choice of such research tools was determined by their explanatory value. Moreover, both models complement each other. Bearing the above in mind, the following structure of the article was adopted. The first part presents the general assumption of the analysis and the theoretical framework. The second discusses the evolution of India's approach to the US from 2014 to 2021, indicating the reasons for its change and reconstructing the role of the US in the Indian regional strategy, especially after 2020. The third part draws on the theoretical framework adopted in the article, i.e., the assumptions of institutional balancing and neoclassical realism, to offer conclusions that answer the main research questions.

4

Authors: Patryk Wawrzyński

Book Review: Agnieszka Stępińska, Artur Lipiński, Dorota Piontek, Agnieszka Hess, Populist Political Communication in Poland. Political Actors – Media – Citizens, Logos Verlag, pp. 243.

7

Authors: Łukasz Pietraszek

In the modern world, the development of technology has a significant impact on various areas of human functioning. However, the appearance of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and the need to implement numerous restrictions resulted in an even greater increase in the importance of new technologies, especially in such sectors as education, administration, or finance. In Poland, the introduction of the remote work system encountered many difficulties related to the unpreparedness of previous structures to implement such solutions. An example of a country where they operate efficiently, responding to the problems that Poland faces today, is Estonia, in which, beginning from 2004, the state administration sector has been gradually replaced by a digital system based on Blockchain technology. At present, in Poland, appropriate steps are already taken by the Ministry of Digitization to digitize public administration in the form of a plan of four streams. Given the protracted pandemic, the possibilities for immediate solutions and considering the advantages and disadvantages of digitizing the state seem worth attention.

10

Authors: Tunde A. Abioro

The cycle of individual and communal lives from birth to death is supposedly preserved by the government through institutions. However, political, social, and economic activities are engaged to make ends meet wherein the government is to serve as an unbiased regulator. The activities that play out in Southern Kaduna reflected politics of being on one side with interplay on origin, identity, religion, and locality. On the other hand, it reflects politics of belonging that play on kin, reciprocity, and stranger status. It has thus resulted in violence, suspicion, and persistent conflict. The study examines citizen’s inclusiveness in peacebuilding initiatives and the people’s perception of the sincerity of the government. The research relies on secondary sources where governmental and non-governmental publications and documents from relevant and reliable sources enriched the socio-historical approach, particularly those relating to contestation in the region. The study found out that just like situations in the other northwest states of the country, the crisis exacerbates by the government’s inability to mediate fairly between warring parties to ensure fairness and justice as well as failure to apprehend and punish the culprits, even as recommendations from the various interventions were unimplemented. Thus, the spate of violence continues.

12

Authors: Rafał Wiśniewski

The article aims to analyze the role of economic sanctions in the People’s Republic of China’s overall approach to achieving its security objectives in the international arena. During the last two decades, Beijing used this instrument on numerous occasions to exert pressure on a varied group of actors. China’s current strategy toward a range of disputes and conflicts it is engaged in (the South China Sea territorial disputes most prominently stand out) is often described using the popular vocabulary of “hybrid warfare” or “grey zone conflicts”. Putting the conceptual complications aside, the author agrees that the PRC’s approach can be viewed as part of a growing trend for great powers to employ what can be called “hybrid strategies” toward its opponents. As part of a broader category of economic statecraft, economic sanctions form an important element of this approach. Considering current scholarship on both “hybrid” (or “grey area”) warfare and economic sanctions, the article answers the question of why the PRC increasingly resorts to hybrid strategies (including economic coercion) and identifies the main characteristics of Chinese economic sanctions. It also provides preliminary conclusions on their effectiveness.

12

Authors: Grzegorz Sobolewski

National and international security remains a fascinating area of scientific research. Studies of phenomena and processes in military security suggest that we are witnessing great and intense changes. In their analyses of the modern security environment, both NATO and the EU wish to accommodate the existing conditions. Poland also has been affected by that process. The security policy should be based on the main assumption that Poland is a sovereign security entity, able to define its national interests and strategic objectives autonomously. However, the foundations of our security are assured by membership in the EU and NATO, good relations in the region, a strategic alliance with the USA, and an internal defense mechanism. The needs of the state and the society for national security arise from a dynamic rate of changes in challenges and hazards. The Author intends to combine theory with practice that is implemented in favor of the military security of Poland. First of all, the essence of military security is presented from theoretical and utilitarian viewpoints. The subsequent parts of the paper present research results related to the identification of contemporary challenges and hazards to the military security of Poland. This approach provided an opportunity to outline assumptions of policy and strategy underlying military security in current international security conditions.

14

Authors: Piotr Lewandowski

The article analyzes the Polish reason of state in changing international order understood as the loss of hegemon position by the United States. The author defines the reason of state as an analytical operant and relates it to the security and sovereignty of a state in the international environment. The text also outlines possibilities of development of Poland's reason of state in the region and global geopolitics.

23

Authors: Solomiya Kharchuk

What are the primary drivers of the relationship between Xi’s China and Lukashenko’s Belarus? The present research paper uses the historical process-tracing method to provide an answer to this question. Furthermore, it uses quantitative data analysis regarding the economic intercourse between Belarus and China. It examines whether China’s opposition regarding the unipolar American-led world order and Belarus’s security concerns are the primary drivers of the relationship between Minsk and Beijing. The present article concludes that the congruence of beliefs and Minsk’s desire to ensure survival are drawing the two countries closer together. China’s new strategy encompasses Beijing’s increasing participation in world affairs. China opposes the world order led by a single hegemon, the United States of America. In the interim, Belarus, a relatively weak state insignificant in the global balance of power, shares Beijing’s beliefs about the desired nature of the contemporary world order. However, the Belarusian economy’s condition, which relies heavily on external funding, does not allow the economic cooperation between Minsk and Beijing to thrive. China gradually increases its engagement with Belarus, yet it obscures its ambitions, for Minsk lies in Moscow’s sphere of influence.

3

Authors: Lech Wyszczelski

Book Review: Magdalena Molendowska, Rafał Miernik (Eds.), Bezpieczeństwo w cyberprzestrzeni. Wybrane zagadnienia, Toruń 2020, pp. 328

9

Authors: Krzysztof Kowalczyk

This article aims to analyze the approach of Polish parliamentary parties to the anti-abortion legislation in 1991-2019 on the level of their ideological programmes. Classification of political parties concerning their ideological families has been proposed. Next, the article presents a typology based on the party’s attitude to the discussed problem, distinguishing the following categories of parties: the proponents of apportioning, the opponents of abortion, heterogeneous parties, and parties that do not express an opinion on this issue.

11

Authors: Gideon Biger

Earlier this year, President Donald Trump presented his Peace Plan for Israel and the Palestinians. The plan also dealt with the future boundaries of Jerusalem. Jerusalem is the only city ruled by a sovereign regime, the State of Israel, which declared Jerusalem as its Capital city and draw its boundary lines. Except for the US, the status and boundaries of Jerusalem are not accepted by any other international or national entity. Only the United States, which accepts Jerusalem as the capital city of Israel, agreed to accept its Israeli declared boundaries. Jerusalem’s status and boundaries stand at the core of the dispute between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, which wishes to restore the pre-1967 line. The city of Jerusalem was divided during the years 1948-1967 between Israel and Jordan. The Palestinian Authority thus calls for a separation of Jerusalem between two independent states. Today, Jerusalem has an urban boundary that serves partly as a separating line between Israel and the Palestinian Autonomy, but most countries do not accept the present boundaries, and its future permanent line and status are far from establishing. Jerusalem is a unique city. This article presents a brief history that should help understanding its uniqueness.

14

Authors: Maciej Skrzypek

The COVID-19 pandemic occurred in Poland during the campaign before the presidential election scheduled for May 10. This non-military threat changed the election campaign’s dynamics, leading to an unprecedented failure to hold elections and postponing them. Around the changes in the election procedure, many constitutionalists and political scientists voiced their inconsistency with the law and the provisions of the Constitutional Tribunal. Both the proposed provisions and the manner of their organization raised objections. The article classifies these changes as manifestations of democratic backsliding, weakening democratic institutions and leading to a decline in the quality of democracy. The research goal is to analyze the records in the selected source material and relate them to the selected theoretical category (democratic backsliding). In the course of the research, the following hypothesis is verified: in the face of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland, attempts by the ruling elite to change the provisions related to organizing the presidential elections scheduled for May 10 are an example of democratic backsliding, which, by weakening democratic institutions, has threatened the constitutional provisions and the essence of the democratic system.

16

Authors: Małgorzata Polkowska

SDA (Space Domain Awareness) and SSA (Space Situational Awareness – SSA) have been defined as comprehensive knowledge of space objects and the ability to track, understand, and predict their future location. The purpose of the article is to present SSA initiatives to protect space systems, which are now recognized as fundamental assets of the sustainable development of each country. The destruction of even a part of the space infrastructure can have severe consequences for the security of citizens and economic activity. These systems assume the combination of all data obtained by various entities operating in space and Earth to create a common database. The SSA system was created based on the US military programme SDA (Space Domain Awareness); SSA and SDA are almost similar, but SDA is a new term replacing SSA, which existed previously. SDA is a better and improved SSA. Increasingly, the SSA programme is part of national and EU space strategies, but it is not yet possible to include it in international space law.

20

Authors: Gabriel Nowacki

This work presents the methodology of the Russian impact on Latvia after 1991. It defines and specifies the scope of methods concerning both the hard and soft power in international relations in the 21st century, particularly the ones used to implement the Russian Federation’s foreign policy. The implemented strategies and impact models are described. The work is also focused on certain indicators used in global rankings by experts worldwide. In the 21st century, it is no longer enough to employ the hard power methods as it is advisable to use the soft power ones, which may bring about much better results than the hard ones.

3

Authors: Michał Lubina

Book Review: Chosein Yamahata, Sueo Sudo, Takashi Matsugi (Eds.), Rights and Security in India, Myanmar, and Thailand, Singapore 2020.

4

Authors: Lech Wyszczelski

Book Review: Zbigniew Girzyński, Jarosław Kłaczkow, Jan Żaryn (Eds.), Fundamenty Niepodległości. Sejm Ustawodawczy (1919–1922), Toruń 2020, pp. 574.

11

Authors: Joanna Siekiera

Sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea became a key topic for the negotiations since the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro. Ocean change is now the most significant threat facing humanity, especially those living in coastal areas. The possible and already observed loss of territory, and thus sovereignty of the submerged states, is not the only legal consequence of ocean change happening now, in the 21st century. Another factor is the downsizing of Exclusive Economic Zones, which implies political tensions between the neighboring countries, both sovereign and dependent territories of the former colonial powers. France is present in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean via its overseas collectivities. Thus, instead of being at the 45th position in the world’s ranking of the ocean powers, the Republic of France comes in the second position, straight after the United States of America. This high and indeed precious position, both geostrategically and economically, affects its views toward the United Nations negotiations process on biological diversity beyond national jurisdiction.

15

Authors: Anna Kobierecka

The People’s Republic of China is one of the states focusing intensively on building its soft power and shaping its international image. However, China’s image is still negative and primarily based on stereotypes. In recent years, this country is willing to change such perceptions and present itself as an efficient, intensively developing, capable country that is much more than just a global production plant. The article aims to review China’s different manifestations of development aid regarding changing this type of public diplomacy and its meaning to the Chinese government. Is it only motivated by good intentions, or maybe its goal is to only provide an advantage to China? It is evident that owing to significant development, China needs to expand its economic contacts. However, the tested hypothesis states that behind Chinese development aid, political motivation is hidden as well. The research is based on content analysis of official documents and Foreign Ministry’s statements referring to development aid.

18

Authors: Eric Pomès, Jean-Marc Coicaud

The China Sea connects as many coastal states as it divides due to the economic and strategic challenges it represents. It also embodies an area of confrontations between the Great American and Chinese strategies. Identifying with precision the differences that arise requires an interest in the symbolic dimensions that surround them. This angle of analysis provides an opportunity to observe the functioning of international law and inevitably leads to a discussion of the emerging international order. The literature on the situation in the China Sea abounds. The paper’s singularity is to approach it under the prism of international law as revealing the psychology of an actor. To carry out this research, the authors use a pragmatic and critical approach to international law. The thesis defended shows that, contrary to a positivist and judicial approach to international law, elements exogenous to the law, the history, and the psychology of an actor, influence the interpretation of existing norms.

27

Authors: Karina Verónica Val Sánchez, Nezir Akyesilmen

This paper highlighted the use of cyberspace as a conflict zone by the US and China, focusing on competition in various technological spheres, including cyberespionage, military technology, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). The main purpose of this study was to depict how great powers manipulate the cyber domain for their high political objectives through US-China rivalry. The research has been carried out mainly via literature review, discourse analysis, and relevant statistics. Consistent with previous literature and global public perception, the outcome has shown that both states are using cyberspace as a new domain for completion in trade, technology, and military purposes. Cyberespionage, the militarization of cyberspace, and AI have been the main conflict areas between these two global competitors in the last decade.