Financial Journal

p. 8-28

Authors: Marina Yu. Malkina, Anton O. Ovcharov

The article presents an overview of theoretical approaches to the study of the content and channels of financial contagion, the main methods and models of its quantitative analysis. The results of contemporary domestic and foreign studies devoted to the assessment of the intensity, direction and scale of contagion across countries and industries are discussed. We conclude that Russian researchers pay insufficient attention to this problem. In the practical part of the article, we test hypotheses about the transmission of contagion from the oil market to a number of Russian large companies belonging to different sectors of the economy. Sanctions and pandemic shocks are seen as external triggers for contagion. We use a large amount of oil and stock price data for a period that includes the 2014–2016 monetary and financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic crisis. To distinguish between periods of high and low market volatility, which is necessary to detect contagion, we calculate moving coefficients of variation for oil and stock prices. To identify cases of contagion, we employ the Forbes-Rigobon test, tests for coasymmetry and cocurtosis of distribution. The resulting estimates confirm numerous cases of contagion, with their number increasing as higher distribution moments are analysed. In addition, we conclude that during the 2014–2016 crisis, the Russian oil and gas industry showed the greatest vulnerability to contagion from the oil market. However, the pandemic shock changed the telecommunications sector turned out to be the most susceptible to contagion from the oil market in Russia. The banking sector in both crises showed a high degree of contagion from the oil market. At the same time, companies associated with ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, mining and processing of precious metals, as well as the chemical industry demonstrated the greatest resistance to financial contagion.

p. 46-63

Authors: N.A. Avksentiev, A.S. Makarov, Yu.V. Makarova, E.M. Pazukhina, N.N. Sisigina, O.A. Feoktistova, E.E. Zaytseva, S.D. Kuznetsov, A. Paice, K.I Saytkulov

A number of governmental anti-HIV strategic programs are being implemented today in Russia; however, as of 2020, only 74.5% of the infected were aware of their status and only 67.4% of them were receiving the therapy. Under such conditions, it seems reasonable to assess future social and economic consequences depending on various scenarios of centralized financing of anti-HIV activities in the future. With the use of mathematic modelling, an economic analysis was performed for the “no change” scenario of maintaining costs for HIV control at the level of 2020, and a prognosis was made for 4 possible scenarios of national policy changes in relation to federal expenditures: a 25% and 50% increase in expenditures from the level of 2020, a “maximum extensive scenario” (which assumes reaching the upper limit of expenditures with approximately 60% growth while maintaining the current structure of costs), and an “intensive” scenario with an increase in nominal expenditures and shifting costs to purchasing newer third-generation antiretroviral therapy regimens. According to the modelling results, the current financial strategy (the “no change” scenario) in nominal terms will result in HIV mortality growth up to 25 thousand cases annually, the economic burden over the period of 2020–2030 will exceed RUB 4 bln and will not let achieving the national target of “90-90-90” by 2024. Under this scenario, Russia would remain the leader in HIV prevalence among the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The “no change” scenario would result in indirect economic losses of RUB 3,481.06 bln per year, with epidemiological parameters still high. The most efficient scenario turned out to be the “maximum extensive scenario” that suggests an increase in federal budget expenditures on combating HIV infection by approximately RUB 20 bln annually. This course of events would allow reducing HIV mortality to 5.4 cases per 100 thsd population by 2030, which is comparable to the current HIV mortality in Spain, Italy and Switzerland, and reducing HIV mortality by 111,9 thsd cases to a level comparable to that of the USA, Chile and New Zealand in 2019. The economic benefit from the implementation of this scenario in 2020–2030 would amount to RUB 1,663.02 bln due to decreased direct non-medical and indirect costs in the form of GDP growth and reduced payments of pensions and disability benefits.

p. 79-91

Authors: Yuriy V. Belousov

In the current digital age, budget transparency becomes an important characteristic of the quality of public administration. Over the past two decades, there has been a rapid increase in the level of openness of budget data. However, this is not happening in all countries; the gap in the level of transparency is striking, and it is growing. To a large extent, this level depends on the concept of public administration adopted by this or that state. The paper examines the peculiarities of the budget openness policy in the three most common public administration systems: the Weberian model, New Public Governance and New Public Management. In the countries practicing the Weberian system, budget openness is not maintained or is treated formally. The New Public Governance system, in terms of budget transparency, is mostly focused on the development of democracy rather than on addressing financial issues. New Public Management is aimed at improving the efficiency of public administration. This requires a high level of budget data transparency. However, this level has not yet been achieved; therefore, the real impact of the New Public Management system can only be expected in the future.

p. 108-121

Authors: Galina V. Semeko

In the context of the rapid growth of international cash flows under the influence of globalization and digitalization of the world economy, the disadvantages of the correspondent banking network for crossborder money transfers are becoming increasingly obvious. Cross-border payments continue to be largely based on the old correspondent banking model, which has not quite benefited from the flow of innovations. New technologies have the potential to facilitate fast, low-cost, transparent and scalable payments. There is a need to modernize international payment systems and to develop alternative payment instruments based on new financial technologies. Central banks and the payments industry are considering ways to improve cross-border systems. One of the most relevant and widely discussed new payment instruments is the central bank digital currency (CBDC). А consensus has been reached in the global community on the expediency and profitability of introducing this new form of fiat money into retail payments, and a large number of countries are implementing relevant projects. In contrast, the promotion of the CBDC in the field of wholesale payments is lagging behind. However, studies confirm viability of using the CBDC in wholesale cross-border payments. A number of central banks are working on wholesale cross-border payment models, and international cooperation among central banks on wholesale CBDC, including for cross-border payments, is intensifying. The article discusses how cross-border wholesale CBDC can address challenges of the existing correspondent banking arrangement. The main purpose is to analyze the results of the most advanced international projects aimed at creating cross-border payment systems based on CBDC and distributed ledger technology. The design features of the proposed payment models, their effectiveness and potential risks are considered.

p. 134-147

Authors: Alexey A. Upravitelev

Microfinance is very popular in Russia, but this sphere is often associated with a number of socioeconomic problems, one of which is the population’s debt load. Often the clients of microfinance organizations (MFOs) are citizens from the poorest segments of the population who do not have a high level of financial literacy. The trend towards digitalization of the financial sector has a significant impact on the decision-making process of MFO services consumers. The subject of this paper is the problem of bounded rationality of decision-making, typical for users of online services of microfinance organizations. To reduce the negative effects on users of MFO services, the Central Bank reduces the maximum permissible interest rate for this type of organizations, and the Ministry of Finance organizes programs to improve financial literacy. The aim of the study is to estimate the efficiency of existing methods for solving this problem and to propose our own solution based on the concepts of behavioral imperialism. The relevance is that the digitalization of the financial sector is rapidly increasing, since both classic services are moving online and completely new technological financial services (fintech) appear, which requires the user to master new skills of working in the online environment. In conclusion, the author gives his recommendations for financial literacy programs that can reduce the bounded rationality of financial decision-making.

p. 9-27

Authors: Vladimir V. Gromov

IT industry is noticeably distinguished by the tax support provided to it in the Russian economy. Nowadays software companies are treated as main contributors to national technological breakthrough being one of the main priorities of federal tax policy. Tax maneuver of 2021 significantly changed well-known tax rules, but some of novelties became a logical development of previously implemented measures. We systematize them by following our classification that introduces three main phases, all of which provided a qualitative update of the previous taxation framework, and for analysis consider particular reliefs as a unified, specific tax regime integrated in the general taxation system. The purpose of the article is to identify priorities and evaluate effectiveness of mechanisms designed to stimulate IT companies, including a preliminary assessment of valid perimeter and performance of the maneuver. Obtained results indicate that the tax regime initially given to software business had a bad design, an extremely narrow scope of beneficiaries and, due to this, a little effect on the IT industry; modernization of that design with the revision of basics was necessary at least in order to stop the decline of IT industry in the part of small companies. However, the main trend of recent tax policy demonstrates a strengthening of sustainable business with comparative fall of competitiveness of beginning entrepreneurs. In sum, the tax maneuver has a positive economic impact but covers, according to our estimates, less than 20% of IT companies.

p. 44-60

Authors: Maria G. Girich, Kristina V. Ivanovicheva, Antonina D. Levashenko

The issue of online platforms’ employment is topical due to the emergence of questions of application of labor law, taxation and social insurance to such persons providing services via platforms. The purpose of this article is to develop recommendations regarding the regulation of relations arising between the platform and its employee in Russia, including the application of labor and business legislation, taxation and social insurance of such persons, taking into account the comparison of the legal regulation in Russia and in foreign countries. The methodology of the work is based on a comparative legal analysis of legal documents in foreign countries (Spain, Great Britain, Italy, France) and Russia. One of the international trends in the regulation of employment on online platforms is the application of labor laws to regulate the relationship between the employee and the platform, or the introduction of a special status of a “quasi-employee” with the provision of platforms with certain obligations to ensure the employment rights of employees. In Russia, the legal status of platform employees is not defined, it is not defined, e.g. whether a person is an employee, an entrepreneur, or a legal entity. For tax purposes, platform employees are usually self-employed (professional income taxpayers), so the article compares the approaches to taxation of such employees in Russia and in foreign countries. Furthermore, the selfemployed in Russia cannot pay social insurance contributions; the article discusses the approaches of foreign countries to social insurance of the self-employed, as well as the issue of the emergence of platforms’ obligations for social insurance of their employees, considering the application of labor law to the activities of those platforms.

p. 74-85

Authors: Olga A. Sinenko, Alexey Yu. Domnikov

The article is devoted to the study of fiscal mechanisms of regulation of property taxation in the territories with a special economic status. The purpose of this work is to analyze the specifics of property taxes, to assess the value and structure of tax preferences provided, as well as to identify trends in property taxation of companies within the territories with a special economic status. The paper explores the features of property taxation within these territories both in Russia and in foreign countries. It is concluded that in foreign practice tax preferences on property taxes are applied mainly to high-tech companies in special territories. The article analyzes the tax preferences for property taxes in Russia granted to the residents for the period of functioning of special economic zones, territories of advanced socio-economic development and the Free Port of Vladivostok.

p. 102-115

Authors: Sergey V. Bogachov, Sergey I. Kravchenko

The article is devoted to solving the urgent task of the expanding the sources of extrabudgetary funding of the housing and utilities secor through the use of elements of tax regulation. The purpose of the study is to analyze and summarize the literature on foreign experience in financing and tax regulation of the housing and communal sphere and to assess the possibilities of its application in Russian practice. Methods of comparison, grouping, logical generalization, tabular presentation of data, expert evaluations were used for the study. As a result of the research, the features of the housing and utilities sphere as an object of financial and tax regulation were revealed. The authors characterized the models and methods of financing of sector used in the EU countries, the USA, China and India, including the degree of state intervention, distribution of powers and responsibilities by management levels, use of the mechanism of publicprivate partnership, creation of joint ventures with foreign capital, issue of infrastructure bonds, implementation of energy saving programs. The approaches to issuing municipal infrastructure bonds in the U.S. and India are presented. Attention is focused on the differences in the distribution of EU countries in terms of the volume and structure of the use of the public-private partnership mechanism. The sources of financing for the implementation of energy efficiency projects in the EU countries are systematized. The article analyzes the foreign practice of tax regulation to increase the investment attractiveness of financial instruments in the modernization of utility infrastructure facilities, exemption from taxation of municipal infrastructure bonds in the United States and India, and improving energy efficiency in the housing sector through the use of tax incentives for the implementation of energy efficiency projects and energy service contracts in Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Sweden. The article also substantiates the possibilities of adapting those methods of financial and tax regulation of infrastructure bonds turnover and implementation of energy service contracts to expand non-budgetary sources of the housing and communal sphere financing in the Russian Federation.

p. 8-25

Authors: Natalia E. Barbashova

In compliance with the requirements of the budget legislation the constituent entities of the Russian Federation work out and adopt long-term budget forecasts. The major drawbacks of the current regional forecasts are inadequate methodology of calculating indicators (revenues, expenditures, deficit, debt) and an indistinct role of forecasting in the budgeting process. The article gives specific recommendations on assessing the parameters of revenues and expenditures of the regional budget for a long term horizon. The author focuses on the relationship of the long-term budget forecasts with the other documents of strategic planning (notably, forecasts of socio-economic development). The author suggests various formulas for calculating revenues and expenditures of regional budgets in the long term, as well as options for detailed elaboration of these parameters depending on the availability of background information and the peculiar features of the region. The article also formulates recommendations on the formalized approaches to assess the long-term consequences of the region’s budget policy, as well as to quantify external challenges on a long-term budget forecast model. Approbation of the proposed approaches was carried out on the example of a simulation model based on the data of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug.

p. 43-54

Authors: Kristina V. Shvandar, Lyubov I. Khomyakova

The article considers the mutual payment systems of regional associations in Asia, Africa and Latin America in line with the global trend to reduce the share of the US dollar in settlements among countries belonging to trade, regional or integration blocs. We took for the research the Regional Payment System SML (Sistema de Pagamentos em Moeda Local) of the MERCOSUR countries, the Regional Mutual Settlement System SUCRE (Sistema Único de Compensación Regional) of the ALBA countries, the Regional Clearing and Settlement System REPSS (Regional Payment and Settlement System) of the COMESA, Settlement system of the Asian Clearing Union. It reveals features of these mutual payment systems, analyzes their contribution to the servicing of mutual trade turnover (noted such a feature of existing systems as their centric organization). The role of these systems in stimulating the use of national currencies by economic entities has been determined. It is indicated that the dedollarisation processes are closely related to the development of cross-border payments and the achievement of certain agreements on the development of a common payment space among countries of the same region that have economic ties, first of all active mutual trade. Based on the model and data on mutual trade turnover and the currency structure of settlements of the Eurasian Economic Union countries given Latin American, African and Asian experience, it forecasts an increase in the share of their national currencies in the servicing of mutual trade in goods and services.

p. 73-90

Authors: Vladimir V. Olkhovik, Olga I. Lyutova, Edvardas Juchnevicius

This article explores the interrelation between economic growth and foreign direct investments (FDI) in the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in 1993–2019. The research focuses on the impact of new FDI inflows per capita, as well as the influence of accumulated foreign capital (FDI stock per capita) on GDP growth per capita. This article has aimed to find the causal link between GDP growth and FDI inflows, as well as between GDP growth and FDI stock per capita in the CIS countries. The research methods include: empirical and statistical research, synthesis of practical and theoretical matters, methods of mathematical modelling. Discussion. FDI in the CIS countries are often determined by market size and market growth potential, which ensure a favourable business environment for foreign investors. Data obtained during the analysis suggest that the CIS countries mainly attract market-oriented FDI, which is consistent with the findings of the authors. Thus, the accumulated foreign capital stock has positive impact on economic growth in the CIS countries. Results. Foreign direct investments for economic growth act through such factors as gross domestic product, interest rate, average wages, exchange rate, consumer price index, political stability. The coronavirus pandemic factor is assessed by the authors as negatively affecting the investment attractiveness of countries; the use of digital technologies in handling FDI, according to the authors, is debatable issue.

p. 113-129

Authors: Elena Yu. Makushina

Russia’s private equity and venture capital industry is in the early stages of development. In 2011 the Federal Law on Investment Partnership (335-FZ) was enacted. It brought the best international practices of collective investments into the Russian legal system by making it possible to create venture capital funds through investment partnership. This particular type of funds is the closest in substance to the most popular legal form of globally known venture capital funds which is a limited liability partnership. Significant progress has been made so far in reforming the Russian system of accounting and financial reporting under the IFRS. However, the existing regulations have not been amended to (capture) incorporate accounting and reporting of financial investments, and proper templates for disclosure and reporting by investment partnership funds have not been worked out. The aim of the article is to develop suggestions and recommendations to enhance domestic model of information disclosure by venture capital funds formed under investment partnership agreements. Researching the international practices of disclosure by venture capital funds created as limited liability partnerships allowed to devise financial reporting templates that can be used by domestic venture capital funds formed under investment partnership agreements. These templates proposed in this piece of research can serve as the basis for future industry standards of financial accounting in Russia.

p. 8-25

Authors: Vladimir V. Gromov

Since 2021, Russian IT companies have been stimulated by enhanced tax incentives, which allow one to pay corporate income tax only to the federal budget as well as pay social security contributions at a heavily reduced rate. While medium and large businesses get benefits from the new government support, small enterprises are traditionally supported through the simplified taxation system, which offers alternative tax measures. For this reason, the purpose of the article is to identify problems which could arise when new incentives are distributed in the economy. Based on the structure of the IT industry and the conditions of reducing taxes, it is argued that fairness of taxation is broken as small IT (software) companies constitute the majority and, at the same time, have little chance to be included in the tax incentive scope. The new privileges addressed to IT companies actually favor some businesses with high turnovers, and even the favorable simplified taxation system cannot completely eliminate distortions in the tax burden level. Along with this, sub-central governments have a strong motivation to raise their tax revenues within the framework of vertical tax competition. There is a need to make the tax system more neutral as well to harmonize tax regimes, and the article provides relevant proposals.

p. 39-55

Authors: Lea Melnikovová, Shukhrat Shadmanov, Sergey Voronin, Bobur Qoraboev

This paper is dedicated to the recent reforms in Uzbekistan’s foreign trade policy and the process of the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization. It pays special attention to the chemical industry trade; with the partial equilibrium model employed, expected changes in imports of chemicals, budget revenues and consumer welfare are revealed. Two scenarios — mere tariff reduction or abolition of country-specific discrimination practices in imports — are considered. Results show that, in the former case, imports of chemical products and consumer welfare will slightly increase and budget revenues will decline; the outcome in the latter case differs: budget revenues will grow considerably, whereas imports and consumer welfare will decrease. We conclude in the latter case that the negative effect will be outweighed by creating a fairer, more competitive environment thanks to removing discrimination practices such as import-specific excise taxes and exemptions on import duty payments for state companies.

p. 71-88

Authors: Anthony Orji, Christian E. Ugwu, Jonathan E. Ogbuabor, Onyinye I. Anthony-Orji, Lynda C. Nwufo

This study examines the channels of transmission through which cash reserve ratio impacts on credit to micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). A vector error correction model was used to capture the objective. Quarterly data ranging from 2001 to 2017 were also utilized in the analysis. The study found that cash reserve ratio indirectly impacts credit to MSMEs through liquidity ratio and lending interest rate as its channels of transmission. It is worthy to note that, as liquidity ratio has a positive significant impact on credit to MSMEs, lending interest rate has a negative but significant impact on credit to MSMEs. To boost economic productivity in developing economies, the study therefore recommends that the monetary authorities reduce the cash reserve ratio in order to increase commercial banks’ liquidity. As the commercial banks’ liquidity rises, they should also reduce their lending interest rate to increase access to credit by MSMEs. Again, the government should appropriate and monitor the judicious disbursement of interest-free loans/credit to MSMEs through banks, especially development banks.

p. 108-125

Authors: Aleksei A. Batarin

The use of cash registers and its consolidation in the law are the norm for any civilized country in the world. This is due to the need for the state to protect its fiscal interests. The most common tool for controlling the revenue of entrepreneurs selling their goods and services to the public is the use of a cash register. Since the use of cash registers serves precisely the purposes of accounting for the taxable base, the control of the use of cash registers is carried out by the tax service. Consequently, provisions on the use of cash registers, as a rule, are included in tax legislation. However, this does not always happen. The experience of the Kyrgyz Republic in legislative registration of the use of cash registers is, on the one hand, textbook, but on the other hand—unique. The problems of current regulation in this area are related to the uncertainty of the legislative definition of the “use of cash registers” category in the system of relations regulated by the Tax Code of the Kyrgyz Republic. The same applies to the uncertainty in the classification of sanctions norms contained in the Code of the Kyrgyz Republic on offenses. In this regard, the author of this article gives specific recommendations to eliminate existing problems in the field of legislative regulation, including unambiguous identification of the place of the obligation to use cash registers and monitor compliance with such a duty in the system of legislation on taxes and fees, as well as proposals for further improvement of the current legal framework.

p. 8-24

Authors: Olga V. Bogacheva, Oleg V. Smorodinov

At present, the methodology of technology readiness levels (TRL) is used worldwide by both public organizations and private companies to address a number of issues. In the system of public support for the development of the science, technology and innovation (STI) sector, TRL is increasingly used as a tool for R&D project management and funding. At the same time, the TRL methodology is not integrated into the budget process in any country in the world, which does not allow the full potential of TRL to be actualized. For Russia, where the role of state scientific and research organizations and public funding of STI is extremely important, this task is a real challenge. As the authors conclude, not only should the TRL methodology be adapted to the tasks of managing budget expenditures for R&D, but the public funding system with its financial instruments should also be adjusted taking into account the requirements of TRL. The key direction of integrating the TRL methodology into the budgetary process is linking of TRLs with elements of types of budgetary expenditures. This task could be accomplished after having taken the following measures: improvement of the budget classification in terms of R&D expenditures; application of a unified project approach to all instruments of state financial support and a unified classification of R&D projects; provision of a unified system for recording expenditures on science; improvement of public support instruments; and determination of the required ratio of R&D funding from budgetary and extrabudgetary sources for various TRL intervals. This work should include development and implementation of a new approach to understanding the boundaries of the STI sector, stages (types) of scientific activities, planning methods and conditions for the provision of public support, as well as improvements in the conceptual apparatus and tools of the support.

p. 54-80

Authors: Aleksandra L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina, Sofiia R. Borisova, Victoria A. Moskvina

Budget mobilization and improvements in the quality of tax administration are always among the top priorities for fiscal authorities. During periods of instability the role of tax compliance and budget execution increases even more. Times like these require quick analysis and adaptation of the tax system to changing economic conditions, and do not always allow conventional scientific approaches to be used in the analysis of tax collection. Fiscal authorities are faced with the need to create relatively simple tools for assessing that would allow one to analyze revenues with a minimum set of data and to assess the efficiency of the tax authorities taking into account changes in the macroeconomic environment. The integral index of collection presented in this work can help solve this problem. The essence of the approach is to analyze the coherence of two dynamics: actual tax receipts and their proxy tax base. The methodical advantages of the proposed indicator are its relative simplicity and versatility. It is applicable for most of the tax and non-tax payments and can be used both independently and in conjunction with other indicators of tax collection completeness. The above makes the index a convenient tool for quick analysis at different stages of the budget process—it can be useful not only for ex-post understanding of trends in budget revenues execution and tax administration dynamics, but also for improving the accuracy of budget forecasts ex-ante.

p. 98-116

Authors: Аnna A. Mikhaylova, Evgeny N. Timushev

The paper analyzes the concept and indicator of vertical fiscal imbalance (VFI) and its capability in assessing the creditworthiness (debt sustainability) of Russian regions. It is found that VFI does not replace other indicators of debt and broader fiscal sustainability, but complements them by providing diagnostics of the balance of incoming and outgoing intergovernmental transfers in addition to the balance of expenditures and revenues (budget deficit). Vertical fiscal imbalance has a close inverse pair correlation with the share of own (tax and non-tax) revenues and fiscal capacity, and can therefore reflect creditworthiness (along with the amount of debt and capital expenditures). Technically, it is advisable to carry out an analysis using VFI with a recalculation accounting for subventions. It is concluded that vertical fiscal imbalance is an important element of the methodology of diagnosing fiscal sustainability. Further study of features of the concept, as well as the use of VFI in the analysis and regulation of intergovernmental relations, suggests a promising outlook.