Financial Journal

p. 8-26

Authors: Aleksandra L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina, Sofiia R. Borisova

This paper presents an analysis of non-resource revenues of the consolidated budget of Russia by types of economic activity. The purpose of this study was to identify which sectors are the most sensitive to shocks form the fiscal point of view, and to answer the questions: how long it takes for the revenues of different sectors recover from “local lows” and how the sectoral structure of budget revenues affects the volatility of payments. In accordance with the set objectives, we examined the dynamics of consolidated budget revenues in real terms for the period 2008–2022 as a whole and by sector. In addition, a sectoral analysis was provided for CIT. The calculations were based on the data of the Federal Tax Service prepared by excluding payments on natural rent. The analysis showed that revenue fluctuations are largely determined by the dynamics of payments from the extractive sector (especially oil production), and an increase in the sector’s share is likely to increase the overall volatility of revenues. In fiscal terms, the processing sector is the most sustainable for total revenues but provides a source of volatility in CIT dynamics. Revenues from financial activities show the fastest recovery from the crises. Trade and finance have a stabilizing effect on both total revenues and CIT dynamics. The results of the study can be used at the stage of budget planning.

p. 43-60

Authors: Alexandr Patalaha, Maria A. Shchepeleva

This research focuses on the determinants of banking crises. Despite all efforts to create systems of leading indicators, banking crises still occur, leading to negative consequences not only in the financial but also in the real sector of the economy. Our objective is to figure out how the characteristics of past banking crises, in particular the amount of liquidity support provided by the government, are related to the probability of subsequent banking crises. To accomplish this task, we use a classification tree methodology which we apply to a sample of 56 countries over the period 2000–2021. In addition to the characteristics of past crisis episodes, we add to the list of potential predictors of banking crises indicators related to the depth, structure and efficiency of the banking sector; institutional and macroeconomic indicators; and the index of macroprudential policy. To test the robustness of our results, we perform variable selection through Bayesian model averaging. Our results suggest that liquidity support during the past banking crisis is important for future crises. We demonstrate that excessive government support aimed at stabilizing the system during a crisis may affect future banking sector stability mainly by increasing the level of moral hazard in the financial system.

p. 76-92

Authors: Pavel K. Koval, Andrey V. Polbin

In modern economic literature, much attention is paid to estimates of the structural parameters of consumer choice and the process of income generation. Such estimations play an important role in determining the optimal insurance system, optimal monetary and fiscal policies, as well as in assessing the welfare of the population. In this paper, we estimate a set of parameters that determine the dynamics of household income and consumption in Russia. These parameters are heterogeneous at the household level; the paper uses the estimation method proposed in [Alan et al., 2018]. To estimate the parameters we use RLMS panel data for the period 2005–2019. The results indicate the presence of significant co-dependent heterogeneity of the parameters determining the dynamics of income and consumption. These results reflect the specifics of the consumer behavior of households in Russia. In particular, significant heterogeneity in the sensitivity of consumption to income shocks indicates a large variability of consumption insurance mechanisms available to households. In addition, there is significant heterogeneity in the dispersion of income shocks, which is critical in the context of the discussion of heterogeneous insurance instruments against income shocks (e.g., access to financial assets), as households with higher variation in unanticipated income change value these instruments more. This study is the first to estimate the full distribution of heterogeneous parameters of consumption and income dynamics using Russian data. Estimates of heterogeneous parameters are important for constructing theoretical models of consumer choice and analyzing optimal social policy. In particular, high values of the level of parameter heterogeneity indicate that standard models with a representative agent are not suitable for optimal policy choices.

p. 110-122

Authors: Ludmila N. Ivanova, Ekaternina N. Badmaeva

In the conditions of expanding interaction between friendly countries, the cross-border approach to economic cooperation in strategically important areas is becoming increasingly important. The methodological basis of this study was the dialectical method of cognition, which allows analyzing and synthesizing economic phenomena, dissecting them into separate elements. The methods of logical, economic and situational analysis were also used. The authors give a bibliographic review of economic cooperation between Russia and the Republic of Kazakhstan using a cross-border approach to the analysis of the precious metals and stones market; show the role of the Republic of Kazakhstan at historical stages in the formation of integration processes in the Eurasian space; characterize the structure of the market of precious metals and stones and products made of them. The market of precious metals, gemstones and products made of them is a promising direction of Kazakhstan's economic development. The Republic of Kazakhstan is successfully improving the state regulation of the precious metals and gemstones industry, taking into account global trends and best practices in this area. Cross-border cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia will contribute to their further economic development.

p. 8-26

Authors: Anton I. Votinov, Victoria A. Gribova, Samvel S. Lazaryan

This paper attempts to assess the impact of public investment within the framework of a simple DSGE model calibrated on Russian data. To this end, three versions of the DSGE model were constructed. The first model, referred to as the baseline model, assumes efficient allocation of public investment. The second model considers inefficient use of public investment when it is not fully converted into capital. The third model examines crowding out of private investment by public investment. The primary focus of this paper is to analyze the effects of public investment shock on various components of the economy. Two distinct effects are identified with regard to investment. The first effect relates to a short-term increase in demand due to an increase in investment activity. The size of this effect is strongly influenced by the crowding-out phenomenon, in particular by the ability of the economy to absorb investment effectively. The second effect is a reduction in marginal costs in the medium to long run, which facilitates economic growth even at the expense of increased private investment. This effect depends primarily on the efficiency of transformation of public investment into capital. The study also analyzes the sensitivity of the results to parameterization, including the degree of economic openness. The findings of the study explain the transmission mechanism of public investment, including the factors affecting its efficiency. It is important to note that the main objective of the study was to investigate the transmission mechanism and its determinants, while the next stage of the research is expected to include a comprehensive assessment of the parameters using Russian data.

p. 45-60

Authors: Andrey I. Lukashov

The article is devoted to the issues related to the need to improve the efficiency of budget funds. The author proposes to supplement the "classical" criteria of budget funds usage efficiency with the criterion of legality. The study summarizes and analyzes the results of control activities of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation and the Federal Treasury. In view of the significant number of violations detected by the state financial control bodies, the author concludes that it is necessary to improve the treasury control tools, such as treasury service, treasury support, budget monitoring and preliminary control in the field of procurement. The author also considers approaches to improving the operational efficiency of the use of budgetary funds. The empirical basis of the study are the results of the federal budget execution for the past five years, as well as indicators of the federal budget receivables. Special attention is paid to the prospects for the development of centralized budget accounting.

p. 79-83

Authors: Vladimir V. Klimanov, Anna A. Mikhaylova, Zoya I. Egorsheva

At present in Russia there is a need to improve the quality of budget policy as the most important element of state policy, and Moscow is undoubtedly the leading region for its implementation. The purpose of the study is to determine whether Moscow's budget policy can respond to the challenges of the new reality through the instrument of state programs. To achieve this goal, the article considers the retrospective of Moscow budget execution in terms of expenditures, paying special attention to the program structure of expenditures. With the help of statistical and analytical methods the authors analyze the dynamics of budget expenditures distribution within the framework of Moscow state programs, and examine the approved and executed budgets and the percentage of deviation of the executed expenditures from the initially approved ones by subprograms. It is concluded that the Moscow budget is quite adaptive. The dynamics of budget expenditures shows that the distribution of budget allocations has been adjusted due to the need of the megapolis to respond to various challenges. If earlier such challenges included the need to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, now it is a tense foreign policy situation and sanctions from unfriendly states.

p. 117-132

Authors: Vladimir D. Smirnov

Increasing competition in all sectors of the economy, caused by the accelerated introduction of new technological advances in manufacturing processes, the creation of innovative products and the use of new business models, generates increased uncertainty in the development prospects of each market organization. The natural reaction of many commercial structures is to deepen specialization and competencies in their core activities. The purpose of the study is to identify the circumstances affecting interaction between a company and a bank in the new conditions. The article for the first time examines these relationships from the point of view of the need for each party to improve its own business, which objectively requires closer cooperation between them. Based on the results of the study, the author concludes that strengthening collaboration between a firm and a bank in the field of credit and payment operations and management of related risks is based on pursuit of each party’s own goals and increases the value of each of them. Forms of cooperation between a company and a bank can be different, but the most effective for each organization seems to be a partnership form of relationship, allowing the participants of cooperation to receive the greatest benefits and, at the same time, to strengthen and reinforce their positions in the core activities of each party.

8-26

Authors: A.B. Zolotareva

The article describes the main conclusions of the research work aimed at identifying key problems of and ways to improve the legal regulation of public investment in Russia. This work was based on the analysis of legislation and practice of its application. The analysis leads to the conclusion that there are significant shortcomings in the current legislation on planning and implementation of public investment, which hinder their efficiency. Among such shortcomings, the author highlights contradictions on the issue of bodies authorized to make key investment decisions; duplication of the investment component of state programs and national (federal) projects; approval of budget allocations for projects that are not ready for implementation; unclear grounds for raising the price of construction contracts, as well as for centralizing the functions of planning and implementation of sectoral investments, reduction of requirements for justification of investment projects. To mitigate these shortcomings, the author suggests to ensure systematic planning of large investments as part of national and federal projects, excluding these costs from the state programs; as a general rule, to abandon the practice of approving decisions on the implementation of budget investments by individual acts of the government and financing projects without the necessary documentation; to organize a comparative assessment of the efficiency of centralized and sectoral customers in investment management according to legally defined criteria; to return to the use of some previously applied criteria for the efficiency of investment projects.

43-62

Authors: B.I. Alekhin

Russian economic literature on poverty abounds with empirically unsupported assertions about the positive relationship between education and living standards. The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence of this relationship using panel data for 82 regions of the Russian Federation for 2000–2021. We applied a dynamic OLS estimator to estimate a panel cointegrating equation and found strong negative and statistically significant dependence of indicators of absolute and relative monetary poverty on the highest level of education of the regional working-age population. We also performed the Dumitrescu-Hurlin pairwise causality test, which shows that higher education does not homogeneously cause more absolute monetary poverty, but more absolute monetary poverty does homogeneously cause better education as people try to avoid poverty by raising their educational level. The results of these econometric procedures suggest that the purpose of the study has been achieved.

82-97

Authors: T.I. Vinogradova

Russia is following the course of implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals and shaping its climate strategy. In March 2023, Russia approved the National Action Plan for the second phase of adaptation to climate change for the period until 2025. The public budget is the main tool for achieving the political goals of the government, therefore, in order to implement the public policy in the field of environmental protection and counteraction to climate change, green budgeting is being introduced. The purpose of this article is to actualize the ideas of green budgeting, systematize such budgeting tools within the framework of the general concept of green budgeting, taking into account foreign experience of their use. The author uses general scientific methods, in particular methods of analysis and synthesis of relevant scientific literature, legal information and publications of international organizations. The following conclusions are made: The public budget system is able to minimize those economic activities that are adverse for the environment by creating the possibility of tracking, analysis, evaluation and adjustment of budget expenditures using the tools of green budgeting. The latter does not require restructuring of the public finance management system; the prerequisite for its practical use is the presence of environmental care among the state national goals.

112-122

Authors: I.V. Kiviko, N.I. Malis

Currently, the Republic of Crimea is a subsidized region, and for objective reasons the level of subsidization will not be significantly reduced in the near future, as a result of which the implementation of the indicators reflected in the Law of the Republic of Crimea "On the Strategy of Socio-economic Development of the Republic of Crimea until 2030" does not seem realistic. At the same time, the tax policy of the republic is developing measures to increase its own budget revenues, and they are already giving their positive results. Undoubtedly, the expansion of the revenue side of the regional budget should be based on increasing the manageability of the tax potential, which is formed taking into account the indicators of the dynamics of economic development. The unique geographical, resource and climatic conditions of the Republic of Crimea allow for a widely diversified economic development policy and, accordingly, regional tax policy. Based on the peculiarities of the territorial location and a large number of health resort and recreational complexes, it is possible to form a program of short-term measures to increase the tax base under special tax regimes, personal income tax and other taxes due to the cascade effect of business activity of individuals and SMEs. Full or partial solution of the problem of seasonality of active use of tourist infrastructure will increase the tax potential and, in turn, reduce subsidized dependence on the federal center. The management of tax potential should certainly be based on the analysis of the level of tax burden due to the fact that excessive tax burden can lead to the effect of reverse increase in tax payments.

p. 9-24

Authors: S.D. Shatalov, M.R. Pinskaya, V.A. Prokaev, K.N. Tsagan-Mandzshieva

The article considers the conceptual approaches to the taxation of natural resource use. The purpose of the article is to identify the governmental tax risks in the implementation of various scenarios of mining rent withdrawal and to substantiate the methodology of resource taxation in extraction and processing of solid minerals, based on the principle of tax justice. The authors reveal the factors of tax risks for the state in exercising its sovereign right to the mining rent. The article formulates the requirements to the tax system, the observance of which will allow to consider the factors of the state tax risks. Advantages and disadvantages of certain fiscal payments for extraction of mineral raw materials are determined. It is shown that the resource tax should be based on the present value, calculated as the net present value of the investor for the entire lifetime of the project. The authors propose a mining rent taxation mechanism, which would increase budget revenues while maintaining the incentives for mining companies to invest in exploration. The main forks in the design of such a rent income tax are shown.

p. 41-58

Authors: V.V. Gromov

State regulation of the anthropogenic impact on nature, including the policy of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, makes it necessary to support those enterprises that are willing to invest in climate projects. The relevance of incentives in this field is confirmed by the task set by the Arctic Council chaired by Russia at the Research and Training Conference on Climate Change and Permafrost Thawing 2023, namely to find reasonable, practical solutions for adapting the global economy to such changes. In the area of taxation, there is a solution prepared by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development willing to provide a package of tax benefits for investors. According to the draft, they should be exempted from paying VAT and income tax. At the same time, the variety of previously introduced preferential ‘investment’ tax regimes calls into question the rationality of new tax incentives due to the assumption of their redundancy. The fact is that they have similarities in the basic idea of support aimed at the growth of regional investment activity. For this reason, the purpose of the article is to answer the following questions: Is it really worthwhile to expand the number of tax regimes once again? Is it possible to use existing incentives instead of introducing new ones? To achieve the purpose, we rely on the results of comprehensive, comparative analysis of the developed incentives and the current tax preferential regimes on the example of the Sakhalin region. It stands out among other regions of Russia by its carbon-neutral pilot project and the greater number of preferences already enjoyed by investors, so we can provide representative and practically significant results. The hypothesis of the study is based on the concept of complementarity, meaning that the newly developed tax incentives will contribute to the complexity of the Russian tax system but will not cross the scope of the other mentioned tax regimes. The results show that climate projects have their own specifics in terms of objectives as well as areas of investment that require special approaches in tax policy, since investors create a useful economic effect in the form of reducing greenhouse gas emissions rather than producing goods, and no taxable profit is generated until the investor profitably sells carbon units in the market.

p. 78-90

Authors: I.Yu. Arlashkin

During the structural transformation of the Russian economy, it is especially important to ensure the balance of consolidated regional budgets, in particular through tax decentralization. The article presents the results of modeling the redistribution of tax revenues between the federal and regional levels of the budget system. The purpose of modeling was to find such parameters of tax decentralization which do not worsen the horizontal balance of consolidated regional budgets. The scientific novelty of the paper lies in modeling the effects of tax decentralization on the level of differentiation of regional tax revenues according to the latest available tax and budget reporting data for 2019–2022. As a result, it was shown that an increase in regional shares for personal income tax, certain components of the mineral extraction tax, water tax and fees for the use of water biological resources up to 100% will not lead to a significant increase in inter-regional differentiation of tax revenues. The prospects of the study are to take into account the impact of the structural transformation of the economy on the territorial distribution of tax bases and the level of taxation, as well as to detail the calculations for personal income tax and mineral extraction tax as new data are accumulated.

p. 104-121

Authors: M.Yu. Malkina, R.V. Balakin

The paper examines the relationship between financial and industrial stresses in the Russian economy in 2006–2019, mediated by the monetary policy of the state. Stress indices are constructed on the basi of a number of financial market and industrial sector indicators of the Russian economy. These variables are aggregated using the principal component analysis. Stress indices are calculated as the moving difference between the standard deviation and the mean value of the first principal component. The graphical and correlation analysis confirms that industrial stress in the Russian economy grows during financial crises, accompanied by an increase in credit interest rates (including the key rate) and the scale of refinancing of credit institutions by the Bank of Russia. Based on the construction of ARDL models, we obtained convincing evidence of the positive impact of both a short-term increase in the key interest rate and a longer increase in the scale of refinancing of credit institutions by the Bank of Russia on the reduction of financial and industrial stresses in the Russian economy, which, however, appears in different time intervals. We concluded that the combined management of industrial and financial stresses, taking into account their interaction and sensitivity to different instruments, requires the search for the optimal combination of monetary regulation methods. The results obtained may be useful in conducting a prudent monetary policy in periods of financial instability.

p. 8-26

Authors: M.E. Kosov, A.Yu. Chalova, R.G. Akhmadeev, E.V. Golubtsova

The article examines the modern concept of the state fiscal policy in Russia and the possibilities of its implementation through the federal budget in the face of new global challenges. To this end, the authors assessed the resource base of the federal budget of the Russian Federation, as well as the adequacy of measures of fiscal regulation of the current economic situation. In this regard, the authors evaluated the feasibility of the initial macroeconomic indicators underlying the parameters of the federal budget for 2023–2025, primarily its revenues, and the risks of their possible change. The authors associate the key risks of failure to achieve the stated goals of the budget and tax policy for the period 2023–2025 with a sharp reduction in the resource base of the federal budget, especially its oil and gas revenues in the context of worsening geopolitical tensions and increasing sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation. The study focuses on the justification of approaches to minimize the negative consequences of external shocks both for the subjects of the Russian economy and for public finances. In the course of the study, the authors used the methods of statistical data processing, factor modeling, regression analysis and expert evaluation. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the assessment of the impact of new global challenges on the balance of the Russian federal budget and substantiation of approaches to transform fiscal regulation measures in response to these challenges. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using its results in the development of state fiscal policy in the medium term under the conditions of dramatic changes in the scenario conditions of formation of the federal budget.

p. 47-58

Authors: A.V. Maslov, K.V. Shvandar

In 2023, digital ruble is expected to appear in Russia. It is planned to allow for delay-free settlement of transactions with digital financial assets, automation of the use of smart contracts, and tracking of budget calculations. The Ministry of Finance plans to use the Russian digital currency in budget settlements. The first phase of the experiment to use a digital ruble has already involved a number of banks that are testing the opening of digital wallets on the Bank of Russia platform: deposits, transfers between citizens, as well as payments for goods and services. However, the question remains whether the digital ruble in today's environment will help solve the most important task — to facilitate crossborder payments. While the stage of development and testing is underway, it is necessary to pay particular attention to the issues of risk management, system stability, the peculiarities of interaction with other forms of fiat money, and to ensure the use of digital ruble in cross-border settlements. This article discusses test projects which are aimed at studying the functioning of the main channels of digital transactions, identification of problem areas and improvement of modern technologies in the field of cross-border payments. The purpose of this article is not an in-depth analysis of the results of any particular project, but a brief description of a number of projects to illustrate the activities of central banks of different countries in this area. Nor is it intended to compare these projects and draw conclusions about their results. An example of a more thorough study of some projects in order to use existing experience for new projects is the Report of the National Bank of Kazakhstan “Digital Tenge Project” (2021). All these projects are usually initiated by central banks, as well as international organizations and global financial market participants actively involved in international payment relations. The study of the results achieved during the testing of the projects give us an understanding of how settlements in CBDCs, including cross-border ones, may develop in the near future.

p. 74-89

Authors: S.I. Chuzhmarova, A.I. Chuzhmarov

The relevance of the research topic is due to the need to solve the problems of fiscal support for investment in the context of increasing environmental and climate risks that push countries to form the fiscal policy under the influence of the climate agenda, capable of ensuring the financial interests of governments and investors. The main objective of the article is to characterize the processes of transformation of national fiscal policy under the influence of the global climate agenda and tax incentives for investments in green technologies. The authors analyze the sources of investment financing mobilized by developed countries, the main of which are carbon taxes and energy taxes. Changes in the tax policy of the Russian Federation aimed at stimulating the best available technologies and R&D are exposed. The following conclusions are made. Developed countries are actively implementing fiscal measures to support investment in green technologies; the topic of tax transformation has moved from a discussion format to the plane of practical application, although not always successful. Today countries introduce new incentives, use preferential environmental taxation of innovative activities of the energy-intensive sector and voluntary tax agreements of authorities with investment companies, form ratings based on unified comparable indicators. The Russian Federation lags behind developed countries in mobilizing financial resources for green economic growth and in the development of fiscal tools that have proven effective. The problem today is tax regulation of technological development, which covers investment incentives and disincentives to environmental pollution. The next promising action could be the formation of a financial basis for green economic growth, investment in green technology.

p. 103-115

Authors: Yu.A. Spletukhov

The article discusses issues related to the implementation of environmental insurance. Its purpose is to consider a number of problems, the solution of which can contribute to increasing its role in the compensation of losses caused by environmental pollution. To this end, it is proposed to expand the circle of legal entities obliged to provide financial guarantees of compensation for such losses and to use environmental insurance as one of the mechanisms of such guarantees. The effectiveness of guarantees provided by concluding insurance contracts can be ensured by regulating its conditions in a separate regulatory act. In turn, the preparation of the latter requires consideration of some aspects related to the mechanism of conducting environmental insurance. The article, in particular, characterizes the types of environmental pollution and, on this basis, draws conclusions about the possibility, expediency and specificity of insurance in relation to each of them. The insured event in environmental insurance contracts, according to the author, should be the consequences of accidental, sudden and unintentional pollution, i.e., those caused by an accident, disaster or other emergency events of man-made or natural nature. Another problem considered in the article is related to the range of losses that should be included in the scope of insurers’ liability under the insurance contracts concluded in order to provide financial guarantees of compensation for damage caused by environmental pollution. According to the author it should include losses caused by the insured to other legal entities and individuals in the form of damage to natural objects and associated with the implementation of measures aimed at reducing the damage caused by the insured event. A significant place in the article is given to the peculiarities of assessment of damage to be compensated by insurance companies. First of all, it concerns how to calculate the losses caused by damage directly to the natural environment. The results obtained in this part of the article include, in particular, the conclusion that when choosing a method of assessment of such damage one should mainly take into account the amount of costs for environmental restoration.