Notitia - journal for sustainable development

9

Authors: Mirjana Landika; Sanel Jakupović; Vedran Šupuković

Investment policy and investing represent essential tasks, and also major issues of almost all socio-economic systems. Investment represents a development platform and is necessary for survival of market and economic systems; it comprises undertaking appropriate measures and activities to have the invested capital continuously increasing through exercising selected operations. Economic indicators, especially in the period of economic crisis, reflect unfavourable and widespread tendencies of unwanted business result that arise from inadequate business policy, where investing and investment policy may be marked as leaders in the area of business failure. Impossibility to accurately assume business results related to the investment, time disproportion between the investment and its initial, and particularly, optimal effects, and also irreversibility of the investment, further complicate the formulation of adequate investment policy strategy platform. Modelling of business strategies in the exposure to turbulent socio-economic, technological and market factors is an inspiration and a challenge to the researcher to representatively mirror the reality by selecting an adequate theoretical model. Faithful mirroring of the reality involves a subtle approach to classification of these factors by importance, level of influence, and also adequate quantifying, identifying and shaping the form, as well as the extent of their interdependence. Mathematical simulation model is a theoretical model that allows prediction of business results in the risk exposure expressed correspondently with the random component that is influencing it. The major concern of the mentioned approach is an adequate selection of the probability distribution of a random variable, customized to the investment conditions. It is necessary here to take into account empiric component of a territorial-geographic area of the investment implementation, whereby it is necessary to have insight into other aspects of distribution selection, such as experiences in the selected investment area (sectoral specificity) and adjustment to particular theoretical model. Simulation of investment effects provides an objective approach to strategic choice and adequate calculation of monetary results before operationalization of the project.

10

Authors: Sanja Franc; Velibor Peulić

The main aim of this research is to examine Slovenian trade flows in goods and services with the rest of the world since joining the European Union (EU) in May 2004. We applied Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on quarterly data from the first quarter of 2005 up to the first quarter of 2017. Applied Hansen and Seo (2002) test confirmed the assumption of linearity in the relationship between the variables under consideration and therefore the appropriateness of the empirical approach for the purpose of this paper. The research results indicate importing to exporting as a dominant trade pattern in the Slovenian economy and successful trade balance with the rest of the world since Slovenia joined the EU.

13

Authors: Marija Beg; Domenika Mergl

In the public discourse of transition economies, as well as in scientific literature focused on their functioning, there is still an active debate on whether privatization should be encouraged in view of its effects on the economy. In the context of the effects of privatization on employment, this paper focuses on labor market developments in Croatia. The primary emphasis is on the analysis of employment by activity and ownership type. The main aim of the paper is to determine the impact of privatization, i.e. the growing share of private ownership, on employment in Croatia. The estimate is conducted using the OLS method in the EViews statistical package. The results of the econometric analysis indicate that the increase in the share of private property leads to an increase in employment. In view of the results obtained it is recommended to further reduce the high share of state ownership in the Republic of Croatia.

13

Authors: Hrvoje Jošić; Fran Maček Pandak

Ever since its independence, Venezuela has based its economy on the manufacturing and export of a single product. In the 19th century, those products were cocoa and coffee beans, which were replaced by oil in the 20th century. This led to the Dutch disease which harmed other sectors of the economy, so the often corrupt governments bought social peace with socialist policies and government spending. During the 1980s, the first significant plunge in oil prices in the 20th century forced the Venezuelan government to conduct liberal reforms in order to receive assistance from the International Monetary Fund. These led to a significant decline in the standard of living and GDP, as well as, mass protests. Due to the popular discontent, the 1998 presidential elections were won by Hugo Chavez, a former military officer and the leader of the failed coup, who used the rebound in oil prices to start socialist reforms and economic recovery. Expropriations of privately owned assets and price controls weakened the domestic economy and led to inflation, while the rise in government spending strained the public finances. The big drop in oil price in 2014 caused the collapse of the Venezuelan economy as well as social and political crisis. The data used in making this paper is from the Venezuelan government and its departments and institutes, as well as from the United Nations, the World Bank, other organisations and Venezuelan and foreign newspapers and web portals.

18

Authors: Martina Sopta; Lucija Šola

The topic of the paper is of a high importance and interest for Croatia since it covers the sector which provides many jobs in professions with a shortage of workers. Besides historical and comparative methods, theoretical methods such as analysis, synthesis, induction and deduction were also used in this research. The main objective was to describe and explain the way the Export Credit Insurance division of Croatian Bank for Reconstruction and Development (HBOR) has contributed to the Croatian shipbuilding industry's recovery through managerial aspect. Analysis of the shipbuilding managerial economics in the scope of national economy reveals different models of government influence on recovery of the industry: financial support, restructuring, privatization, and export credit insurance. Considering a high degree of risk present in export, export credit insurance has a major impact on the domestic shipbuilding recovery. The main goal of export credit insurance is to increase the competitiveness of Croatian shipyards abroad.