E jurnal Matematika

Number Vol.2 (3), 2013

7-10
PENERAPAN REGRESI COX PROPORTIONAL HAZARD UNTUK MENDUGA FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI LAMA MENCARI KERJA

Authors: I GEDE ARI SUDANA, NI LUH PUTU SUCIPTAWATI, LUH PUTU IDA HARINI

Abstract

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Number of views: 524

Survival analysis is a statistical method that accommodates the collection of censored data. One of popular method in survival analysis is the Cox Proportional Hazard Regression. The Cox Proportional Hazard Regression can be used to see old looking for work where data may contain censored data. This article aims investigate the characteristics of job seekers and the variables that affect old looking for work. To establish the best model using Stepwise Selection method. Prior to that the assumption of Cox Proportional Hazards Regression is tested using log minus log curve. The results obtained from Cox Proportional Hazards Regression model is as follows H(t,Z) h_0 (t)e^((-0,27261X1-0,26668X2+1,46875X3_cerai+0,27288X3_kawin)). Keywords: Survival analysis, Cox proportional hazard regression, old looking for work, unemployment

11-16
ANALISIS KEMISKINAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN MODEL REGRESI SPASIAL DURBIN (Studi Kasus: Kabupaten Gianyar)

Authors: LUH PUTU SAFITRI PRATIWI, I GUSTI AYU MADE SRINADI, MADE SUSILAWATI

Abstract

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Number of views: 573

Poverty still a complex problems for both at national and regional level, so it requires an appropriate and sustainable strategy mitigation. Every household in the different regions has different characteristics and influenced factors, so it requires the identification of the factors that influence poverty by paying attention to the influence of the area using the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The purpose of SDM modeling is to determine the spatial dependency relationship which occur not only in the dependent variables, but also on the independent variables. The result shows that the significant lagged dependent variable is indicated by the parameter ρ=5,9804〖>χ〗_(0,05;1)^2=3,841. Lag significant independent variables are independent variables with a significant weighting, but there are no independent variables that are significant with the weighting. Keywords: Poverty, OLS, Spatial Durbin Model

17-22
PENGARUH PERUBAHAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP PERHITUNGAN PREMI NETO TAHUNAN ASURANSI KESEHATAN INDIVIDU

Authors: YOGI PRADIPTA, I NYOMAN WIDANA, Y. B. SUGIARTO

Abstract

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Number of views: 528

Health insurance is a type of insurance product that specifically guarantees for health care or treatment. Individual and collective health insurance are the two categories of health insurance. Estimated premiums are determined according to death rate, sex, age, level of interest and administration costs. The interest rate relied on may vary between insurers. This study used three different interest rates for the calculation of annual net premium on individual health insurance based on RP-2000 Male & Female Combined Healthy Table and the Indonesian Mortality Table (TMI) 1999. The results indicated that an increase in interest rate causes a decrease in the premium, and vice versa. This study concludes that changes in interest rate affect the calculation of annual net premium on individual health insurance which are either renewed or not renewed. Keywords: individual health insurance, the interest rate forecast, net premium.

23-28
PENERAPAN REGRESI ZERO INFLATED POISSON UNTUK MENGATASI OVERDISPERSI PADA REGRESI POISSON (Studi Kasus: Ketidaklulusan Siswa SMA/MA dalam Ujian Nasional di Buleleng)

Authors: LUH KOMANG MARDIANI, I KOMANG GDE SUKARSA, I GUSTI AYU MADE SRINADI

Abstract

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Number of views: 509

The Poisson regression analysis is one of the regression methods used for count data and has the assumption of equidispersion. However, it is the overdispersion and then underestimate standard errors will be obtained. If the data are overdispersed and more data is zero then ZIP (Zero Inflated Regression) regression is used. ZIP regression model is more appropriate to be used to analyze the amount of Senior High School/Madrasah Aliyah who do not pass the exam with five independent variables, because a lot of data failure is zero. In this paper, data are overdispersed on Poisson regression, so ZIP regression are used. ZIP regression models obtained are only influenced by the proportion of Senior High School/Madrasah Aliyah classroom were damaged (X3), is ln⁡〖(μ)〗=-1,7237+0,0911 X_3 and logit (ω)=-0,4867+0,0465 X_3. Keywords: Poisson Regression, Overdispersion, ZIP Regression, National Examination Test Failure.

29-34
PEMODELAN JUMLAH ANAK PUTUS SEKOLAH DI PROVINSI BALI DENGAN PENDEKATAN SEMI-PARAMETRIC GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED POISSON REGRESSION

Authors: GUSTI AYU RATIH ASTARI, I GUSTI AYU MADE SRINADI, MADE SUSILAWATI

Abstract

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Number of views: 500

Dropout number is one of the important indicators to measure the human progress resources in education sector. This research uses the approaches of Semi-parametric Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression to get the best model and to determine the influencing factors of dropout number for primary education in Bali. The analysis results show that there are no significant differences between the Poisson regression model with GWPR and Semi-parametric GWPR. Factors which significantly influence the dropout number for primary education in Bali are the ratio of students to school, ratio of students to teachers, the number of families with the latest educational fathers is elementary or junior high school, illiteracy rates, and the average number of family members. Keywords: GWPR, Semi-parametric GWPR, dropout

35-39
PENERAPAN METODE PENDUGAAN AREA KECIL (SMALL AREA ESTIMATION) PADA PENENTUAN PROPORSI RUMAH TANGGA MISKIN DI KABUPATEN KLUNGKUNG

Authors: PUTU EKA ARIWIJAYANTHI, I WAYAN SUMARJAYA, TJOKORDA BAGUS OKA

Abstract

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Number of views: 437

Small area is an area with insufficient sample for direct estimation. Limited survey objects, cause direct estimation can not produce better parameter estimates. Based on this, an indirect estimation method called empirical Bayes is used to obtain a better estimate. This study will compare means squared error by direct estimation method and empirical Bayes method to find a better method on a small area. Jackknife is used to get the means squared error in the empirical Bayes. The results is, empirical Bayes methods give a better parameters based on mean squared errors. Empirical Bayes can produce a smaller mean squared error more than direct estimation in small area. Keywords: Pendugaan Area Kecil, Bayes Empirik, Jackknife

40-45
ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI WAKTU KELULUSAN MAHASISWA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE GOMPIT (Studi Kasus: Mahasiswa Fakultas MIPA Universitas Udayana)

Authors: NI KOMANG DEBY ARIANI, I WAYAN SUMARJAYA, TJOKORDA BAGUS OKA

Abstract

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Number of views: 469

The aims of this research analyzed the factors affecting the period of the students’ graduation based on GPA at Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Udayana University by using gompit regression. This data strongly indicates unbalanced between students who graduated on time and students who graduated not on time. The result of this study indicates that the graduation of the students based on the GPA categorization satisfied all of the independent variables was not significant. Meanwhile, for the graduation of the students based on the GPA categorization was highly satisfied. There are four dependent variables which are significant, such as: gender, study program, region, and the final assignment accomplishment period. Moreover, for the students’ graduation based on the GPA categorization with praises, there were two independent variables which were significant: region and the final assignment accomplishment period. Keywords: gompit method, graduate point average (GPA), students’ graduation period.

46-52
PREDIKSI PENGGUNA BUS TRANS SARBAGITA DENGAN METODE ADAPTIVE NEURO FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM

Authors: SLAMET SAMSUL HIDAYAT, I PUTU EKA NILA KENCANA, KETUT JAYANEGARA

Abstract

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Number of views: 448

Trans Sarbagita is a public transportation services people at Denpasar, Badung, Gianyar and Tabanan. Trans Sarbagita is aimed to resolve a problems caused by accretion volume of vehicles in Bali. This study conducted to forecast the number of Trans Sarbagita passengers in 2013 using ANFIS. The ANFIS system composed by five layers where each layers has a different function and its divide in two phases, i.e. forward and backward phases. The ANFIS uses a hybrid learning algorithm which is a combination of Least Squares Estimator (LSE) on forwards phases and Error Backpropagation (EBP) on the backward phases. The results show, ANFIS with six inputs with M.F of Pi produces smallest error, compared to seven and eight input and M.F gauss and generalizedbell. Forecast of Trans Sarbagita passenger numbers in 2013 have to fluctuated every day and the average of passenger’s Trans Sarbagita for a day is 1627 passengers with MSE equal to 10210 and MAPE is 4.01%. Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy inference system, Error backpropagation algorithm

53-58
PENGELOMPOKKAN KABUPATEN DI PROVINSI BALI BERDASARKAN PERKEMBANGAN FASILITAS PARIWISATA

Authors: NOVA SARI BARUS, I PUTU EKA NILA KENCANA, KOMANG GDE SUKARSA

Abstract

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Number of views: 479

The development of tourism facilities in each district/city between districts with each district is different. The purpose of this study was to determine the grouping of several districts in the province of Bali is based on the number of tourism facilities as well as what the variable identifier of each group. The analysis used in this study is the analysis of clusters and Biplot. The data used is secondary data obtained from the Bali Tourism Office in 2011. Variables used are classified hotel, non-classified hotels, home stays, restaurants, bars, tourist destination, the area of tourism, water tourism and business. The results of this study formed three groups: group 1 Bangli, Buleleng, Jembrana District, Klungkung, Karangasem district and Denpasar City. Group 2 and group 3 Badung district of Gianyar district. Variable identifier is a restaurant for all variables.