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COST OPTIMIZATION OF URBAN PUBLIC TRANSPORT: BUYING OR SELLING A USED BUS?
Authors: Ana Paula Rodrigues da Costa, Valcemiro Nossa, Arilda Magna Campagnaro Teixeira, Aridelmo José Campanharo Teixeira
Number of views: 403
Although the discussion on urban mobility involves the mass transportation modalities, most
cities still trust on bus fleets. This research aims to present a model that proposes to identify the moment that may be made the option to sell or buy a used vehicle from the fleet of buses of
urban public transport system, through the application of Real Options Theory (TOR). Research
indicates that when the vehicle is new maintenance costs are low, basically covering the routine
reviews and component replacement, but after a certain age, these costs grow. In this sense a
question that always arises is to decide the appropriate time to acquire or dispose of a used
vehicle. The theory used in this study, TOR, focuses on the Binomial Model in Discrete Time.
Methodologically, the study was carried out with real data of a particular case of the bus fleet
that served as support for the construction and testing of the proposed model and relied on data
from a traditional bus company of the Espirito Santo state. The proposed model is validated
through a numerical example that identifies the time for decision making. In the case study, the
model showed the time of the option as of the end of the second year of use of the bus. The
methodology and the results awaken to the need for managers to have information resulting
data fleets and can make safe decisions, especially the "ideal" time for fleet replacement. For
the government, this kind of studies can generate data drafting normative regulatory agencies
in order to meet the dealers and public-private partnerships