European Researcher. Series A

133-146

Authors: Imen Ktari, Filiz Katman

This paper investigates the motives behind the geopolitical shift explained by the outcome of Turkey’s exclusion from the emerging institutionalization operations by littoral sates in the Eastern Mediterranean. Studies have stressed on the tremendous profits cooperative institutions would have engendered in the region, consequently the foundation of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), which includes major concerned littoral states in the region (Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, France, Italy, Palestine and Jordan) is one of the prominent steps toward a constitutionalized cooperation based on the motive of gas exploration and extraction in the region through multiple agreements and demarcation of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZs) between the concerned actors, which stimulated a geopolitical shift against Turkey. The study aims at demystifying the nature of the geopolitical shift through the use of the balance of threat theory derived from Stephen Walt’s book of “The Origins of Alliances” and the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSC) developed by Burry Buzan, Jaap de Wilde and Ole Wæver. The present volume defends the idea that Turkey projects a permanent threat to the above-mentioned states starting from 2002, as subsequent developments in its foreign policy compiled with its rising economic and military power, has in turn a tremendous impact on its encirclement and exemption by its neighbors. Case study aims to testify the applicability of the Balance of Threat Theory and Regional Security Complex Theory on the exemption outcome using specifically the embedded case study to include various analysis of foreign policy relations with Turkey, data is collected from both the primary and secondary sources.

167-195

Authors: Mikhail B. Loshchinin, Michael I. Ojovan

Based on empirical facts and general context, a historical decrease of the average households’ size is revealed which follows an almost linear law with a rate of approximately minus 0.02 persons per year. An attempt is made to theoretically substantiate the linear law of households’ decay on the basis of the model of hyperbolic mankind growth formulated by S. Kapitza in terms of a specific unit of time and evolution of the regional populations. A hypothesis is proposed and justified that the linear households’ decay forms a mankind historical time arrow similar to the arrow of world population growth. The hypothesis of two social evolution eras is proposed and justified. Within the genus-tribal era, households have almost constant sizes and are the subjects of hyperbolic growth. In the modern era, Kapitza’s regional populations have almost constant sizes and are the subjects of hyperbolic growth, while the households begin their historical decay up to the size equal to 1. The total time required for the implementation of both eras is significantly less than previous estimates and is about 20,000 years. In the modern era, informational exchange stimulates the growth of human capital and consistently frees people from the need for collective labor for survival, and for this reason it is identified as a possible cause of the households’decay.