The Problems of Economy

11

Authors: Kyzym M. O., Shpilevskyi V. V., Khaustova V. Ye., Antonenko S. V., Мatyushenko I. Yu.

The article establishes that in 2012 the metallurgical industry remained one of the leading industries of Ukraine (accounting for 16% of the industrial production volume and 27.5% of goods export), its scale and importance for the economy of the country reduced after entering the WTO. Evidence is given that the period of 2007-2012 witnessed reduction in the volume of metallurgical output exported from Ukraine both by volume and by value: in 2012 compared with 2007 the share of metallurgic output in Ukraine dropped both in terms of export (1.53 times) and import (1.26 times). Data are provided showing that metallurgical output exported from Ukraine has significantly lower value added than the same imported, and prevalence of the import price over the export price shows a negative growing trend. It is proven that after entering the WTO there generally was a significant decrease in the tariff rates and liberalization of access to world markets for Ukrainian output, simultaneously the domestic market of Ukraine became more open for imported products. It is demonstrated that after entering the WTO the share of Ukrainian metallurgical output exported to third countries which are not members of the EU and the CU in total exports (by value), increased by 1.4% in 2012 compared with 2007, which means that reorientation towards trade with other countries is taking place. The conducted analysis shows that the period of 2007-2012 witnessed reduction in the production output of principal types of metallurgical products, since imbalance in production capacities and the range of manufactured products contributed to an increase in the dependency of the industry on import and its export orientation with growing home market capacity, and due to the low technology level of domestic production and low competitiveness, enterprises of the industry are losing both foreign and domestic markets. The proposed forecast shows that in 2014 surplus capacities on the world metallurgical output market and intense competition will have their effect, yet demand can increase due to recovery of the Eurozone economy, as well as stabilization and growth on North American markets.

18

Authors: Kyzym M. O., Yaroshenko I. V., Matyushenko I. Yu., Semyhulina I. B., Makhansova Yu. M.

The article deals with the problem of the consequences for Ukraine from its membership in the WTO, for Ukraine’s production and foreign grain crops trade with the EU and the Customs Union (CU), the Eurasian Economic Community. It was determined that Ukraine is among the absolute world leaders in the production and export of grain crops and sunflower oil from domestic raw materials. The commodity structure of exports and imports of agricultural products was analyzed. The situation and changes in the market of grain crops and its products after the WTO accession were examined. The negative factors of the relevant market of cereals crops and its products were identified. It was determined that Ukraine's foreign trade with third countries which are not members of the EU and CU after joining the WTO has expanded considerably and has more promising areas for further expanding markets than with the EU and CU. It was proved that the largest importer of domestic finished grain products is Russia. It was determined that the domestic market in Ukraine is quite open to imports of cereals and their products. The situation and changes in the market of sunflower seeds and sunflower oil after Ukraine's accession to the WTO was examined. It was defined that the production of sunflower oil in Ukraine is export oriented activity. The analysis of export-import operations in Ukraine with the EU and CU led to the conclusion that these markets are closed for former Soviet Union producers. It was determined that the domestic market of Ukraine in terms of its own resource base (sunflower seeds) for the production of sunflower oil is secure enough. It was proved that for effective development of domestic markets of these goods, Ukraine needs to develop other areas of foreign trade integration.

20

Authors: Kyzym M. O., Matiushenko I. Yu., Khaustova V. Ye., Kozyrieva O. V., Kostenko D. M., Moiseienko Yu. M., Buntov I. Yu.

The article considers the problem of consequences of membership in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) for Ukraine in foreign trade of high-technology products under conditions of co-operation with EU countries and the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia (CU). The article shows that after Ukraine joined WTO there were some rather significant reductions of tariff rates for Ukrainian products and liberalisation of access to the world markets, at the same time the internal Ukrainian market became more open for imported products. The article studies specific features and changes in the high-technology products market after Ukraine joined WTO. It analyses dynamics of volumes and specific weight of the world export-import of hightechnology products and the structure of the world export and import of high technology products, including by individual countries and groups. The article makes a conclusion about a weak high-technology component of the Ukrainian export. It studies the structure of export of high-technology products of EU, CU and Ukraine. It shows that in order to develop the high-technology products market Ukraine needs to develop foreign trade with EU countries and also to continue co-operation with CU countries, in particular, with Russia. The article shows that the aerospace industry products takes the biggest specific weight in the export of high-technology products of Ukraine. It considers prospects of development of civil aircraft production in the world and Ukraine under the modern conditions. It analyses strengths and weaknesses of the aircraft construction industry and also threats and opportunities for aircraft construction of Ukraine due to external environment influence. The article shows that Ukraine cannot keep national aircraft building on its own, that is why it is necessary to develop close co-operation both with Russian enterprises and with the countries of the Western Europe. It offers recommendations on preservation of production potential of the aircraft construction industry of Ukraine. The final conclusion of the study is the following: despite the world financial and economic crisis, diversification and change of the Ukrainian export structure is going on since Ukraine joined WTO, which not only facilitates reduction of dependence of the national economy on individual geographical markets, but also predetermines the necessity to protect interests of the national producers by the Ukrainian government in new markets.

13

Authors: Kizim M. O., Lelyuk O. V., Cherkaskii I. B.

The article analyses unconventional gas resources in Ukraine and draws a conclusion that the existing assessments differ and require clarification. The article forms a characteristic of unconventional gas deposits in Ukraine. It analyses prospects of unconventional gas extraction from consolidated rock at the Hughes Site. It proves that the Hughes Site could satisfy the country requirements in tight sands gas (TSG) until 2030, which were determined in the “Renewed Energy Strategy” project, discussion of which was initiated in June 2012 by the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine. The article conducts calculations of a number of mines required for extraction of the planned volume of TSG at the Hughes Site in 2020 – 2030 and required capital investments. It calculates the cost value of TSG extraction at the Hughes Site. It develops the schedule of investing into the Hughes Site and builds forecast scenarios of developing the Hughes Site in 2020 – 2030. On the basis of calculations it proves that only the optimistic scenario (when the selling price of gas would be USD 255 for 1 thousand cubic metres) ensures profitable development of the Hughes Site.