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Risk Modelling in Healthcare Markets: a Comparative Analysis of three Risk Measurement Approaches
Authors: Henry Asante ANTWI, Zhou LULIN, Ethel YIRANBON, James Onuche AYEGBA, Mary-Ann YEBAOH, Emmanuel Osei BONSU
Number of views: 513
Health care, due to its high upfront costs and centrality to humankind, is often considered ‘different’
and best left outside the domain of markets. But such blanket opposition ignores valid reasons for
not dismissing the value markets could bring. Since its inception in 1948 the NHS in England has
gradually evolved (and devolved) into a very different being. No longer is it – in the words of health
policy analyst Rudolf Klein the ‘secular church’, maintained and presided over by disciples of its
founder, Aneurin Bevan. In its current state, the NHS functions on the basis of what has been
variously called a ‘quasi’, ‘mimic’ or ‘internal’ market with its own risk levels for investors. For risk
managers, at the centre of strong risk management is suitable risk metrics that are constructed
using complex mathematical models. This study looks at the three approaches and how they apply in
computing VaR. For the three techniques, VaR is defined and the main methodologies. Thereafter,
the methods are applied, separately, to the data so as to compute VaR. The results is presented and
analysed respectively. Next, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages associated with the three
approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss the critical yet complex issues involved with the model
accuracies and mapping up of positions related to risk factors and model volatility. The report
concludes with a brief summary on the issues pertinent to VaR analysis.