Financial Journal

Number No. 6, 2022

p. 8-24
Regional Tax Competition in Canada, the United States and Russia: Assessment of Regulatory Experience

Authors: Michael V. Alexeev, Andrey V. Korytin, Elena V. Melkova

Abstract

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Recent changes in the Russian tax legislation aimed at weakening the tax powers of the federal subjects in relation to profit tax open the question of a reasonable degree of limitation of the fiscal autonomy of Russian regions, as well as the regulation of regional tax competition. This article discusses the peculiarities of regulation of domestic tax competition in Canada and the United States on the basis of an analysis of the provisions of the tax legislation related to the fiscal powers of regional jurisdictions (provinces, states). The article focuses on approaches to limiting harmful tax practices that affect the economy or budget revenues of other regions. Empirical studies confirm the existence of negative effects of domestic tax competition, as well as the relevance of measures to restrict it. The considered countries make efforts to limit domestic tax competition both at the level of interregional agreements and at the level of central authorities. However, practice shows that it is difficult to ensure actual implementation of agreements at the regional level, so regulation by the central government is of key importance. Based on this result, recommendations are given for taking measures against harmful tax competition between the regions of Russia.

p. 25-43
Regional Budget Revenues in Early 2022: Main Trends and Risk Factors

Authors: Aleksandra L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina, Sofiia R. Borisova

Abstract

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The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the impact of 2022 external shocks on Russia’s sub-federal budget revenues and to identify the main revenue side risks that should be considered if sanctions pressure increases. The relevance of the study is determined by the time factor: less than six months have passed since the beginning of the crisis. The authors examine the dynamics of regional budget revenues in 2022 as a whole and provide a detailed qualitative analysis of the situation in eleven regions, selected in accordance with the dynamics of their budget revenues in March-June 2022 (soon after the introduction of sanctions). The analysis shows that regional budget revenues have already begun to respond to the sanctions, however, the external shocks manifest themselves in different regions with different speed. It was revealed that the most vulnerable to the crisis is the CIT, while the PIT is relatively stable. The main risk indicators for regional budget revenues are the share of the extractive sector in GRP, the structure of reginal foreign trade (both by commodity and by country) and the state anti-crisis support of SMEs.

p. 44-58
Methodology and Results of Measuring the Transparency of Russian Regional Budgets

Authors: Olga I. Timofeeva

Abstract

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Number of views: 55

At the beginning of the 21st century, the issues of openness (transparency) of budgets of public-legal entities became especially relevant. This is due to technological changes (the advent of the Internet) and a common form of political participation in modern states (representative democracy). The task of measuring budget openness is also topical. Currently, there is no single solution for it. The article presents the methodology and results of measuring the openness of budget data in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The measurement of the budget openness of the regions is carried out on the basis of a special methodology. The article presents its main characteristics and features, as well as the results of budget openness assessment of all the subjects of the Russian Federation for the period from 2013 to 2021. The methodology of assessing the budget openness of Russian regions uses innovations that allow obtaining reliable and high-quality results. The evaluation system works as an incentive mechanism to increase the openness of budget data. During the measurement period, the openness of regional budgets has increased significantly. At this stage, not all aspects of budget openness can be measured. It is necessary to improve the methodology and technology of measurement, to expand the coverage of areas and to improve the quality of the assessment.

p. 59-73
Improving Internal Financial Control and Audit as Mechanisms to Increase the Efficiency of Budget Funds

Authors: Andrey I. Lukashov

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The article deals with the organization and implementation of internal financial control and internal financial audit in the public administration sector. This issue is of particular relevance due to regularly taken decisions to restrict (moratorium) the activities of internal state financial control bodies. At the same time, the current socio-economic situation in the country requires an increase in the amount of budget funds allocated to address important state objectives. Under such conditions, the importance of internal control mechanisms, allowing for targeted and effective use of budget funds, increases. At the same time, the results of analytical activities carried out by the Federal Treasury indicate a significant number of shortcomings and difficulties on the part of the chief administrators of budgetary funds in the organization and implementation of audit. In this regard, the author, using methods of analysis of results, analysis of statistical data and analysis of official documents, conducted a study of the current system of internal financial control and internal financial audit. The empirical base of the study was formed by the results of analytical activities of the Federal Treasury, the results of monitoring the quality of financial management carried out by the chief administrators of federal budget funds, as well as regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation and departmental legal acts of federal executive bodies regulating internal financial control and audit. According to the results of the study, proposals were developed to improve the efficiency of the internal financial control system and internal financial audit in the public administration sector.

p. 74-90
Using Market Indicators to Refine Estimates of Corporate Bankruptcy Probabilities

Authors: Daria S. Leonteva

Abstract

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Number of views: 57

This study investigates an alternative approach to estimating the probability of default. The introduction of credit spreads as market measures of default into an accounting-based model attempts to enhance the predictive power of classical approach models which analyze only balance sheet data. This paper identifies which of the two market measures of credit spread — the Z-spread or the I-spread — has an advantage in the context of robustness of the bankruptcy prediction models. Using two techniques — logistic regression and a gradient boosting machine approach, as well as a sample of annual series of 80 financial ratios for 385 U.S. listed companies which issue corporate bonds — evidence is obtained that the I-spread has higher predictive power in both techniques. The better performance of the I-spread can be explained by the fact that the accuracy of the Z-spread calculation can be misleading because different methods of interpolation of the yield curve are used. In addition, the predictive power of the chosen techniques is also compared. The up-to-date gradient boosting machine framework performs better on the test sample. These findings may encourage managers to implement additional market characteristics in the analysis and apply modern techniques rather than the classic ones — logistic regressions and multiple discriminant analyses models — to predict inconsistency in corporate performance.

p. 91-110
Default Prediction for Housing and Utilities Management Firms Using Non-Financial Data

Authors: Vladislav V. Afanasev, Yulia A. Tarasova

Abstract

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Number of views: 52

For many years, financial ratios have been used as predictors of default. However, biases in financial statements of companies in Russia call into question the applicability of this approach. An alternative approach is to use non-financial data in such models. The purpose of this paper is to find out whether non-financial data, such as information related to court trials, unscheduled inspections and firm age, can significantly improve the accuracy of default prediction in the housing and utilities management industry. This part of the services sector is chosen as one of the riskiest industries, in which firm default affects not only conventional stakeholders such as banks, shareholders, employees, etc, but also customers. A dataset of 378 housing and utilities management firms which have faced default and 765 solvent “healthy peers” is used to create and test default prediction models. Logistic regression is used as the classification algorithm. The results suggest that addition of non-financial data can significantly improve the accuracy of default prediction, and moreover, non-financial data can be used exclusively without any financial ratios to create classification models which show acceptable accuracy. The paper contributes to the existing literature by providing new evidence on the benefits of using non-financial data in default prediction models. In addition, we were able to collect a unique dataset of unscheduled inspections and use this data for default prediction, which appears to be the first case of this kind.

p. 111-123
The Transformation of Russia’s Role in the Global Financial Architecture in the Context of Geopolitical Challenges

Authors: Anton V. Navoy

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Number of views: 48

The article focuses on the evolution of the global financial architecture in the context of geopolitical challenges. It introduces the conceptual apparatus of the global financial architecture (GFA) in conjunction with the structure of the global financial system. It then substantiates the thesis of GFA structure transformation towards establishing a parallel control circuit — informal institutions (forums) acting in close coordination with international financial institutions with broad international legal competence and implementing “soft” regulation of GFA on the basis of international standards and codes. The position of the Russian Federation in GFA is identified, and a conclusion about Russia’s secondary position in MFA institutions is made. The direction of transformations of Russia’s role in GFA are outlined: coordination of activities with other large developing economies; proactive position in the discussion of codes and standards, renewal of discussion on the formation of an international payment system independent of the reserve currency issuers.

p. 124-138
Risks of Using Cryptoassets in Russia and the Potential for Mitigation

Authors: Larisa V. Sannikova

Abstract

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Number of views: 50

The development of the cryptocurrency market and its growing integration into the global financial system has heightened the debate about the risks of cryptoassets to both the global financial system and national financial systems. This paper analyzes the main risks associated with cryptoassets, highlighted both internationally and nationally. These include consumer risks; money laundering and terrorist financing risks; environmental risks; and financial stability risks. The main purpose of the study is to identify the risks of cryptocurrencies in relation to the Russian financial market. Although the risks are identical due to the extraterritorial nature of cryptoassets, the impact of these risks on countries' national financial systems differs significantly. Financial sanctions against Russia also force us to reconsider our established approaches to the assessment of existing cryptoasset risks. Russia has the technological and organizational capacity to mitigate most of the risks. An objective assessment of existing risks and development of balanced approaches to their management open up opportunities for creating a domestic crypto market and using cryptoassets to overcome the sanctions pressure on the Russian financial market.