Financial Journal

p. 8-25

Authors: Boris I. Alekhin

In Russia inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), varies greatly from region to region. This study aims to find an answer to the following question: does there exist a long-term, equilibrium relationship between these differences and interregional differences in the cost of production, delivery and sale of domestic goods and the cost of imported goods? This research question stems from the markup theory of inflation proposed by G. Ackley, who assumed that inflation is a markup on the cost of labor and materials and the cost of living imposed, respectively, by firms and workers to protect profits and wages. Our empirical model of regional CPI includes the unit labor cost, the cost of freight and the cost of imported goods (all in index form). Econometrically, the model is an error-correction model derived from the ARDL model. The pooled mean group estimator is used to estimate the model’s parameters for a panel of 80 regions for the years 2000–2020. Our results do not reject the hypothesis of long-run homogeneity. For a given level of inflation, an increase in unit labor costs would cause prices to adjust completely in the long run, leaving the markup unchanged. Although Ackley’s theory calls for controlling the markup with the usual instruments of monetary and fiscal policies, it finds them inadequate and allows to conclude that regional authorities are able to contain price increases through industrial policy.

p. 45-57

Authors: Vladimir V. Vagin, Valeriya A. Paksivatkina

The article highlights the experience of civic participation in state and municipal management and financial aspects of civic self-organization in different countries of the world. The main forms of cofinancing projects by the population or collecting interest-free loans through civil mutual assistance are determined. Russian practices of financial participation of citizens in the implementation of projects of common interest are identified: co-financing of initiative budgeting projects, practices of self-taxation of citizens, co-financing of projects in the implementation of certain state programs and national projects, as well as co-financing of projects on crowdfunding platforms. Based on the analysis and review of scientific literature, the conclusion was made about the need to define and describe a new phenomenon in the field of public finance — "civil finance", which refers to financial resources and relations between citizens themselves and between citizens and state institutions in the process of implementing management decisions that affect the interests of urban and rural residents.

p. 74-94

Authors: Maria A. Moiseeva, Tatiana V. Kulakova

The existing methods of selecting a contractor for projects in the road sector in the Russian system of procurement do not fully take into account his business reputation and his previous experience, which negatively affects the efficiency of public procurement. Based on the analysis of international literature, it is proposed to assess the level of qualification of road builders by using a mathematical model of the complex indicator of their experience. The key idea of the proposed approach is to develop an integral indicator that characterizes the previous experience of contractors in performing a certain type of work. It is assumed that this indicator will be calculated automatically on the basis of data from the Unified Information System in Procurement. The proposed changes will improve the efficiency of the procurement system and ensure that contractors obtain the competencies necessary for high-quality and timely implementation of the relevant road works.

p. 116-133

Authors: Anna V. Tikhonova

The article discusses the basics of building a system of tax incentives for investments in human capital, capable of ensuring economic growth of the Russian Federation. The relevance of this issue is explained by three circumstances: first, investment in human capital is a key tool for protecting workers from the adverse effects of automation; second, human capital accumulation is closely correlated with income inequality and poverty levels; third, it is a key factor in stimulating rapid economic growth. The purpose of the study is to work out directions of development of tax incentives for investments in human capital on the basis of review and systematization of domestic and foreign literature. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks are defined: to identify areas of taxation influence on human capital formation; to formulate the principles of tax stimulation of investments in human capital; to characterize the tax instruments stimulating growth of investments in human capital; to highlight the state approaches to tax stimulation of investments in human capital of individuals. The scientific literature in the field of human capital development and tools for its regulation was analyzed, and the use of tax incentives was substantiated. The principles of tax stimulation of investments in human capital are formulated and described: the principle of risk minimization, the principle of multidirectionality by subjects of stimulation, the principle of differentiation by types and forms of human capital, and the principle of systemic measures of state support. The study presents three groups of tax incentives focused on the identified areas of impact and taking into account the formulated principles of stimulating investments in human capital.

p. 8-24

Authors: Michael V. Alexeev, Andrey V. Korytin, Elena V. Melkova

Recent changes in the Russian tax legislation aimed at weakening the tax powers of the federal subjects in relation to profit tax open the question of a reasonable degree of limitation of the fiscal autonomy of Russian regions, as well as the regulation of regional tax competition. This article discusses the peculiarities of regulation of domestic tax competition in Canada and the United States on the basis of an analysis of the provisions of the tax legislation related to the fiscal powers of regional jurisdictions (provinces, states). The article focuses on approaches to limiting harmful tax practices that affect the economy or budget revenues of other regions. Empirical studies confirm the existence of negative effects of domestic tax competition, as well as the relevance of measures to restrict it. The considered countries make efforts to limit domestic tax competition both at the level of interregional agreements and at the level of central authorities. However, practice shows that it is difficult to ensure actual implementation of agreements at the regional level, so regulation by the central government is of key importance. Based on this result, recommendations are given for taking measures against harmful tax competition between the regions of Russia.

p. 44-58

Authors: Olga I. Timofeeva

At the beginning of the 21st century, the issues of openness (transparency) of budgets of public-legal entities became especially relevant. This is due to technological changes (the advent of the Internet) and a common form of political participation in modern states (representative democracy). The task of measuring budget openness is also topical. Currently, there is no single solution for it. The article presents the methodology and results of measuring the openness of budget data in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The measurement of the budget openness of the regions is carried out on the basis of a special methodology. The article presents its main characteristics and features, as well as the results of budget openness assessment of all the subjects of the Russian Federation for the period from 2013 to 2021. The methodology of assessing the budget openness of Russian regions uses innovations that allow obtaining reliable and high-quality results. The evaluation system works as an incentive mechanism to increase the openness of budget data. During the measurement period, the openness of regional budgets has increased significantly. At this stage, not all aspects of budget openness can be measured. It is necessary to improve the methodology and technology of measurement, to expand the coverage of areas and to improve the quality of the assessment.

p. 74-90

Authors: Daria S. Leonteva

This study investigates an alternative approach to estimating the probability of default. The introduction of credit spreads as market measures of default into an accounting-based model attempts to enhance the predictive power of classical approach models which analyze only balance sheet data. This paper identifies which of the two market measures of credit spread — the Z-spread or the I-spread — has an advantage in the context of robustness of the bankruptcy prediction models. Using two techniques — logistic regression and a gradient boosting machine approach, as well as a sample of annual series of 80 financial ratios for 385 U.S. listed companies which issue corporate bonds — evidence is obtained that the I-spread has higher predictive power in both techniques. The better performance of the I-spread can be explained by the fact that the accuracy of the Z-spread calculation can be misleading because different methods of interpolation of the yield curve are used. In addition, the predictive power of the chosen techniques is also compared. The up-to-date gradient boosting machine framework performs better on the test sample. These findings may encourage managers to implement additional market characteristics in the analysis and apply modern techniques rather than the classic ones — logistic regressions and multiple discriminant analyses models — to predict inconsistency in corporate performance.

p. 111-123

Authors: Anton V. Navoy

The article focuses on the evolution of the global financial architecture in the context of geopolitical challenges. It introduces the conceptual apparatus of the global financial architecture (GFA) in conjunction with the structure of the global financial system. It then substantiates the thesis of GFA structure transformation towards establishing a parallel control circuit — informal institutions (forums) acting in close coordination with international financial institutions with broad international legal competence and implementing “soft” regulation of GFA on the basis of international standards and codes. The position of the Russian Federation in GFA is identified, and a conclusion about Russia’s secondary position in MFA institutions is made. The direction of transformations of Russia’s role in GFA are outlined: coordination of activities with other large developing economies; proactive position in the discussion of codes and standards, renewal of discussion on the formation of an international payment system independent of the reserve currency issuers.

p. 9-24

Authors: Igor A. Yakovlev, Lyudmila S. Kabir, Svetlana I. Nikulina

This article examines the current trends and the state of development of the energy transition in the Russian Federation. This process presents many challenges and requires a country to develop a strategy for success. At the same time, the successful implementation of the energy transition requires a balanced solution for its organization and implementation and a clear economic calculation. The main purpose of the study was to systematize information on the organization and instruments of for financing the energy transition in the Russian Federation. Presented among the results of the planned modernization transformations of the economy, the energy transition must be considered in the system of existing relations to determine its role and place in this process. The article analyzes government decisions on the energy transition organization, describes key aspects of the modern energy agenda, and summarizes information on the main instruments of energy transition financing. The author concludes that Russia is shaping its energy transition agenda on the basis of competitive advantages and socio-economic development priorities. Regarding energy transition, the country currently adheres to the Paris Agreement, adapting cross-border carbon regulations. The system of organization of relations within the energy transition framework is only being formed in Russia today, while with regard to the funding mechanism there is some experience and groundwork formed in the organization of the financing process of the green economy. Financial flows are reoriented to sectors of the economy which ensure energy security, technological sovereignty and sustainable economic development of Russia.

p. 43-58

Authors: Zhanna A. Mingaleva, Maria V. Sigova

The key issue of successful implementation of any project, program or development strategy is the problem of sufficiency and timeliness of financing of all planned activities. The purpose of this study is to analyze the financial aspects of the implementation of the fourth energy transition in terms of assessing the potential and actual opportunities for financing various activities within the framework of the energy transition. The relevance of the topic of the article is determined by the fact that in the process of the energy transition carried out in the Western countries, primarily in the countries of the European Union, a contradiction has developed and is rapidly deepening between the main areas of financing of various groups of measures to implement the energy transition and the effectiveness of these investments. To achieve the goal of the study, traditional methods of economic analysis were used, including bibliographic, statistical, comparative and factor analysis, methods of graphical representation of data, as well as methods of formal and logical analysis. In the course of the study, the specifics of financing of the modern energy transition were investigated; an analysis of the main sources of financing was carried out, as well as an in-depth analysis of the features of financing activities to create new generating capacities and to achieve the goals of the European Green Deal. The authors identify the main problems and difficulties in financing of the energy transition, primarily related to the ability to accumulate financial resources in the required amount, to the achievement of economic efficiency of investment projects, as well as to the availability of sufficient funds for the implementation of major energy transitions.

p. 71-88

Authors: Sergei S. Sudakov, Samvel S. Lazaryan, Anton I. Votinov

Starting in 2026, the EU will introduce the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Under this mechanism imports of certain products to the EU will be subject to a special fee based on the carbon intensity of these goods. This article is devoted to the quantification of payments under this mechanism for several countries in the Eurasian region: the EAEU member states, Georgia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. These countries were chosen due to the relatively high share of the EU in their exports. CBAM payments have a dynamic nature because certain parameters of the mechanism vary on an annual basis under the influence of a number of factors, for example, due to the annual change in the CBAM rate. According to the estimates obtained, the lowest aggregate CBAM payment accrues to imports from Armenia to the EU. Between 2026 and 2035 it is estimated 95.8 million euros (single CBAM pass-through rate into final prices in EU). The largest payment is estimated to come from Russia: it amounts to 97 billion euros over the same period (zero CBAM pass-through rate). The largest share of payments in exports to the EU is observed for Uzbekistan, Georgia, Tajikistan and Belarus. The largest share of payments falls on imports of metals (ferrous and non-ferrous), fertilizers, electricity and oil. However, the conclusion on products requires additional verification, since for a number of countries in the Eurasian region there are no high-quality and detailed data on the carbon intensity of certain goods.

p. 105-119

Authors: Sergey A. Vasiliev, Irina A. Nikonova, Olga S. Miroshnichenko

The introduction of Big Data technology into banking activities is aimed at improving the efficiency of banks, improving business processes, however, it creates new risk factors and determines the need to transform regulatory approaches. The purpose of the article is to develop recommendations on the use of Big Data technology in banking, including the bank transactions using a financial platform, taking into account the need to ensure the stability of the banking sector at the macro and micro levels, and the development of the financial market. It has been established that Big Data technology is used in the management of banking risks, in the development of relationships with customers, the development of personalized products; in cost reduction. The use of Big Data defines new requirements for staff competencies. As a result of the analysis, the need for cooperation between banks, operators of financial platforms with specialized providers of cloud services, software, as well as fintech companies is substantiated. It was revealed that the implementation of Big Data technology increases the importance of model, reputational risks, third-party risks, unethical behavior, and cybersecurity. When using Big Data technology, banks are recommended to separate the data management function; the regulator — to expand the regulatory principles and approaches to the use of data in the construction, validation, adjustment of banking models based on Big Data technology, to the exchange of data and their protection, to the use by banks, operators of financial platforms of Open data, to the certification of specialized suppliers, interacting with banks; the legislator is recommended to develop a legal framework that regulates the formation and use of open data by economic agents.

p. 8-28

Authors: Marina Yu. Malkina, Anton O. Ovcharov

The article presents an overview of theoretical approaches to the study of the content and channels of financial contagion, the main methods and models of its quantitative analysis. The results of contemporary domestic and foreign studies devoted to the assessment of the intensity, direction and scale of contagion across countries and industries are discussed. We conclude that Russian researchers pay insufficient attention to this problem. In the practical part of the article, we test hypotheses about the transmission of contagion from the oil market to a number of Russian large companies belonging to different sectors of the economy. Sanctions and pandemic shocks are seen as external triggers for contagion. We use a large amount of oil and stock price data for a period that includes the 2014–2016 monetary and financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic crisis. To distinguish between periods of high and low market volatility, which is necessary to detect contagion, we calculate moving coefficients of variation for oil and stock prices. To identify cases of contagion, we employ the Forbes-Rigobon test, tests for coasymmetry and cocurtosis of distribution. The resulting estimates confirm numerous cases of contagion, with their number increasing as higher distribution moments are analysed. In addition, we conclude that during the 2014–2016 crisis, the Russian oil and gas industry showed the greatest vulnerability to contagion from the oil market. However, the pandemic shock changed the telecommunications sector turned out to be the most susceptible to contagion from the oil market in Russia. The banking sector in both crises showed a high degree of contagion from the oil market. At the same time, companies associated with ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, mining and processing of precious metals, as well as the chemical industry demonstrated the greatest resistance to financial contagion.

p. 46-63

Authors: N.A. Avksentiev, A.S. Makarov, Yu.V. Makarova, E.M. Pazukhina, N.N. Sisigina, O.A. Feoktistova, E.E. Zaytseva, S.D. Kuznetsov, A. Paice, K.I Saytkulov

A number of governmental anti-HIV strategic programs are being implemented today in Russia; however, as of 2020, only 74.5% of the infected were aware of their status and only 67.4% of them were receiving the therapy. Under such conditions, it seems reasonable to assess future social and economic consequences depending on various scenarios of centralized financing of anti-HIV activities in the future. With the use of mathematic modelling, an economic analysis was performed for the “no change” scenario of maintaining costs for HIV control at the level of 2020, and a prognosis was made for 4 possible scenarios of national policy changes in relation to federal expenditures: a 25% and 50% increase in expenditures from the level of 2020, a “maximum extensive scenario” (which assumes reaching the upper limit of expenditures with approximately 60% growth while maintaining the current structure of costs), and an “intensive” scenario with an increase in nominal expenditures and shifting costs to purchasing newer third-generation antiretroviral therapy regimens. According to the modelling results, the current financial strategy (the “no change” scenario) in nominal terms will result in HIV mortality growth up to 25 thousand cases annually, the economic burden over the period of 2020–2030 will exceed RUB 4 bln and will not let achieving the national target of “90-90-90” by 2024. Under this scenario, Russia would remain the leader in HIV prevalence among the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The “no change” scenario would result in indirect economic losses of RUB 3,481.06 bln per year, with epidemiological parameters still high. The most efficient scenario turned out to be the “maximum extensive scenario” that suggests an increase in federal budget expenditures on combating HIV infection by approximately RUB 20 bln annually. This course of events would allow reducing HIV mortality to 5.4 cases per 100 thsd population by 2030, which is comparable to the current HIV mortality in Spain, Italy and Switzerland, and reducing HIV mortality by 111,9 thsd cases to a level comparable to that of the USA, Chile and New Zealand in 2019. The economic benefit from the implementation of this scenario in 2020–2030 would amount to RUB 1,663.02 bln due to decreased direct non-medical and indirect costs in the form of GDP growth and reduced payments of pensions and disability benefits.

p. 79-91

Authors: Yuriy V. Belousov

In the current digital age, budget transparency becomes an important characteristic of the quality of public administration. Over the past two decades, there has been a rapid increase in the level of openness of budget data. However, this is not happening in all countries; the gap in the level of transparency is striking, and it is growing. To a large extent, this level depends on the concept of public administration adopted by this or that state. The paper examines the peculiarities of the budget openness policy in the three most common public administration systems: the Weberian model, New Public Governance and New Public Management. In the countries practicing the Weberian system, budget openness is not maintained or is treated formally. The New Public Governance system, in terms of budget transparency, is mostly focused on the development of democracy rather than on addressing financial issues. New Public Management is aimed at improving the efficiency of public administration. This requires a high level of budget data transparency. However, this level has not yet been achieved; therefore, the real impact of the New Public Management system can only be expected in the future.

p. 108-121

Authors: Galina V. Semeko

In the context of the rapid growth of international cash flows under the influence of globalization and digitalization of the world economy, the disadvantages of the correspondent banking network for crossborder money transfers are becoming increasingly obvious. Cross-border payments continue to be largely based on the old correspondent banking model, which has not quite benefited from the flow of innovations. New technologies have the potential to facilitate fast, low-cost, transparent and scalable payments. There is a need to modernize international payment systems and to develop alternative payment instruments based on new financial technologies. Central banks and the payments industry are considering ways to improve cross-border systems. One of the most relevant and widely discussed new payment instruments is the central bank digital currency (CBDC). А consensus has been reached in the global community on the expediency and profitability of introducing this new form of fiat money into retail payments, and a large number of countries are implementing relevant projects. In contrast, the promotion of the CBDC in the field of wholesale payments is lagging behind. However, studies confirm viability of using the CBDC in wholesale cross-border payments. A number of central banks are working on wholesale cross-border payment models, and international cooperation among central banks on wholesale CBDC, including for cross-border payments, is intensifying. The article discusses how cross-border wholesale CBDC can address challenges of the existing correspondent banking arrangement. The main purpose is to analyze the results of the most advanced international projects aimed at creating cross-border payment systems based on CBDC and distributed ledger technology. The design features of the proposed payment models, their effectiveness and potential risks are considered.

p. 134-147

Authors: Alexey A. Upravitelev

Microfinance is very popular in Russia, but this sphere is often associated with a number of socioeconomic problems, one of which is the population’s debt load. Often the clients of microfinance organizations (MFOs) are citizens from the poorest segments of the population who do not have a high level of financial literacy. The trend towards digitalization of the financial sector has a significant impact on the decision-making process of MFO services consumers. The subject of this paper is the problem of bounded rationality of decision-making, typical for users of online services of microfinance organizations. To reduce the negative effects on users of MFO services, the Central Bank reduces the maximum permissible interest rate for this type of organizations, and the Ministry of Finance organizes programs to improve financial literacy. The aim of the study is to estimate the efficiency of existing methods for solving this problem and to propose our own solution based on the concepts of behavioral imperialism. The relevance is that the digitalization of the financial sector is rapidly increasing, since both classic services are moving online and completely new technological financial services (fintech) appear, which requires the user to master new skills of working in the online environment. In conclusion, the author gives his recommendations for financial literacy programs that can reduce the bounded rationality of financial decision-making.

p. 9-27

Authors: Vladimir V. Gromov

IT industry is noticeably distinguished by the tax support provided to it in the Russian economy. Nowadays software companies are treated as main contributors to national technological breakthrough being one of the main priorities of federal tax policy. Tax maneuver of 2021 significantly changed well-known tax rules, but some of novelties became a logical development of previously implemented measures. We systematize them by following our classification that introduces three main phases, all of which provided a qualitative update of the previous taxation framework, and for analysis consider particular reliefs as a unified, specific tax regime integrated in the general taxation system. The purpose of the article is to identify priorities and evaluate effectiveness of mechanisms designed to stimulate IT companies, including a preliminary assessment of valid perimeter and performance of the maneuver. Obtained results indicate that the tax regime initially given to software business had a bad design, an extremely narrow scope of beneficiaries and, due to this, a little effect on the IT industry; modernization of that design with the revision of basics was necessary at least in order to stop the decline of IT industry in the part of small companies. However, the main trend of recent tax policy demonstrates a strengthening of sustainable business with comparative fall of competitiveness of beginning entrepreneurs. In sum, the tax maneuver has a positive economic impact but covers, according to our estimates, less than 20% of IT companies.

p. 44-60

Authors: Maria G. Girich, Kristina V. Ivanovicheva, Antonina D. Levashenko

The issue of online platforms’ employment is topical due to the emergence of questions of application of labor law, taxation and social insurance to such persons providing services via platforms. The purpose of this article is to develop recommendations regarding the regulation of relations arising between the platform and its employee in Russia, including the application of labor and business legislation, taxation and social insurance of such persons, taking into account the comparison of the legal regulation in Russia and in foreign countries. The methodology of the work is based on a comparative legal analysis of legal documents in foreign countries (Spain, Great Britain, Italy, France) and Russia. One of the international trends in the regulation of employment on online platforms is the application of labor laws to regulate the relationship between the employee and the platform, or the introduction of a special status of a “quasi-employee” with the provision of platforms with certain obligations to ensure the employment rights of employees. In Russia, the legal status of platform employees is not defined, it is not defined, e.g. whether a person is an employee, an entrepreneur, or a legal entity. For tax purposes, platform employees are usually self-employed (professional income taxpayers), so the article compares the approaches to taxation of such employees in Russia and in foreign countries. Furthermore, the selfemployed in Russia cannot pay social insurance contributions; the article discusses the approaches of foreign countries to social insurance of the self-employed, as well as the issue of the emergence of platforms’ obligations for social insurance of their employees, considering the application of labor law to the activities of those platforms.

p. 74-85

Authors: Olga A. Sinenko, Alexey Yu. Domnikov

The article is devoted to the study of fiscal mechanisms of regulation of property taxation in the territories with a special economic status. The purpose of this work is to analyze the specifics of property taxes, to assess the value and structure of tax preferences provided, as well as to identify trends in property taxation of companies within the territories with a special economic status. The paper explores the features of property taxation within these territories both in Russia and in foreign countries. It is concluded that in foreign practice tax preferences on property taxes are applied mainly to high-tech companies in special territories. The article analyzes the tax preferences for property taxes in Russia granted to the residents for the period of functioning of special economic zones, territories of advanced socio-economic development and the Free Port of Vladivostok.

p. 102-115

Authors: Sergey V. Bogachov, Sergey I. Kravchenko

The article is devoted to solving the urgent task of the expanding the sources of extrabudgetary funding of the housing and utilities secor through the use of elements of tax regulation. The purpose of the study is to analyze and summarize the literature on foreign experience in financing and tax regulation of the housing and communal sphere and to assess the possibilities of its application in Russian practice. Methods of comparison, grouping, logical generalization, tabular presentation of data, expert evaluations were used for the study. As a result of the research, the features of the housing and utilities sphere as an object of financial and tax regulation were revealed. The authors characterized the models and methods of financing of sector used in the EU countries, the USA, China and India, including the degree of state intervention, distribution of powers and responsibilities by management levels, use of the mechanism of publicprivate partnership, creation of joint ventures with foreign capital, issue of infrastructure bonds, implementation of energy saving programs. The approaches to issuing municipal infrastructure bonds in the U.S. and India are presented. Attention is focused on the differences in the distribution of EU countries in terms of the volume and structure of the use of the public-private partnership mechanism. The sources of financing for the implementation of energy efficiency projects in the EU countries are systematized. The article analyzes the foreign practice of tax regulation to increase the investment attractiveness of financial instruments in the modernization of utility infrastructure facilities, exemption from taxation of municipal infrastructure bonds in the United States and India, and improving energy efficiency in the housing sector through the use of tax incentives for the implementation of energy efficiency projects and energy service contracts in Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Sweden. The article also substantiates the possibilities of adapting those methods of financial and tax regulation of infrastructure bonds turnover and implementation of energy service contracts to expand non-budgetary sources of the housing and communal sphere financing in the Russian Federation.