Transformation of global insurance industry under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic
Authors: Brydun I. Ye.
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This article examines the transformation of the global insurance industry under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic. The author examines the roles of regulators, governments, consumers of insurance services, insurance, and reinsurance companies in responding to the new challenge. The COVID-19 pandemic was an unexpected factor for the global insurance industry, and as because of the global crisis caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, there was a need to assess the transformation of processes in it. Accordingly, the materials of experts of international insurance associations were analyzed, in particular: International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS), The International Credit Insurance and Surety Association (ICISA), European Federation of Insurance Intermediaries (BIPAR), International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (IASIE) and others. The division of insurance market participants into two classes has been substantiated. In one class, there are consumers of insurance services and the insurance market regulators. In another class, there are insurance associations, insurance, and reinsurance companies. Based on the studies and reports of international insurance associations, the author revealed conflict escalation between insurance, reinsurance companies, governments (US, EU, China), and insurance market regulators due to the requirements of compliance with the principle of expediency and transparency in control and supervision, increased demands for reserves and quality assets, changes in the assessment of solvency, constant changes in regulations and requirements for additional information. From the considered impact of the COVID-19 pandemic given the existing regulatory documents Solvency II and IFRS-17, the problem of ambiguous formations in the regulatory acts in the paragraphs “Terms of the insurance contract” and “Exclusion of the insurance contract”– interpretation of the word: “material damage” and the difference in the words: “epidemic” and “pandemic”. Paper identifies the problems of these ambiguous formations in the normative-legal interpretation of the world regulatory bodies, the postulate of Solvency II and the lawsuits that caused these formations. The comparative analysis of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic was performed using the S&P 500 and S&P Insurance Select Industry indices. There was a shock due to the pandemic and the forecasted expectations of investors, who negatively assessed the insurance industry, and as a result, the price of the insurance industry index lost the connection of identical fluctuations with the S&P 500 and the price of the index fell relative to the S&P 500 index. The forecast has been developed to increase the demand for insurance, which will grow from the momentum of the world economy. After a reduction of 3,7% in 2020, the world economy is growing by 5,8% in 2021, which is significantly higher than the average of 3,0% over the previous decade. The paper illustrates the difference between economic growth in developing and developed countries. The author compares the recovery of the insurance industry after the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis in 2008: the insurance industry of the COVID-19 crisis is 14,35% growth and by the end of 2021 should exceed pre-crisis figures, the total amount of global insurance premiums accrued in 2021, will be 11,46% higher than the pre-crisis level of 2019. Conclusions and recommendations on the transformation processes that have arisen under the influence of the pandemic on the insurance industry has been substantiated.