Dogal Afetler ve Cevre Dergisi

178 - 195

Authors: Cafer Giyik, Reşat Atalay Oyguç, Serhat Anıktar

Depending on the geological structure of the land, its geographical location and meteorological conditions, Van Province is exposed to disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, floods, floods, rockfalls, avalanches and rising water levels of Lake Van. Although Van carries different disaster risks in terms of disaster, the most earthquake damage occurs in the city due to the tectonic structures that produce earthquakes in the region. The main reason why structures are damaged in disasters is the selection of places in areas with disaster risk and the construction of structures that are not resistant to disasters without disaster risk analysis. In the disasters experienced between 2000 and 2020 in Van, 144.230 buildings were damaged in different degrees and loss of life occurred. In this process, a total of 29,788 houses were built with different financing models and construction methods to meet the shelter needs of the disaster victims and return their lives to normal. Experienced disasters show that disaster damages cannot be prevented without a solid and suitable structure on the right ground. Different factors such as disaster, geological, geomorphological structure, socioeconomic structures of the victims and legal regulations are effective in site selection. The parcel sizes of the place to be selected should be suitable for the regional conditions, geographical structure, family and household sizes, social, cultural habits, and business sectors of the disaster victims. Since the workplace-housing relationship of the disaster survivors who have been relocated within the scope of internal resettlement is a problem after the disaster, this issue should be considered in site selection. In the study, the disaster management of Van Province and the location selection practices of disaster houses built in Van by disaster management units within the scope of post-disaster recovery activities were examined.

207 - 220

Authors: Meriç Yılmaz

In this study, produced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ERA5 reanalysis hourly 2 m surface air temperature is validated over Turkey and 7 geographic regions using hourly temperature observations collected between 2011 and 2020 over 1773 ground-based meteorological observation stations operated by Turkish State Meteorological Service. In the analyses, error statistics were calculated for hourly, daily and monthly average temperatures. The results show ERA5 simulates air temperatures at different temporal resolutions with a bias of -0.01 - 0.06 °C, while the mean absolute error and mean error standard deviation are 3.3 - 4.0 °C and 1.6 - 3,4 °C, respectively. Although there is no significant hourly variation in mean error statistics during the day and monthly variation during the year, the error variability was found to be higher in winter compared to the other seasons. The correlations of ERA5 and station temperature data are very high (0.93 - 0.99). Compared to the high temporal correlation, low spatial correlation (0.36) suggests that spatially variable correction coefficients will be needed before reliable use of ERA5 temperature data in different regions. Mean error statistics are consistent with validation studies in the literature in different regions. Accordingly, the results obtained in this study suggest that ERA5 datasets can be reliably used in various applications in Turkey, especially focusing on regions with sparse meteorological station networks.

238-249

Authors: Arzu Fırat Ersoy, Esra Hatipoğlu Temizel

In this study, it was aimed to determine the water quality characteristics of Karadere River. For this purpose, physical parameters, major anion-cation and trace element analyzes were carried out by performing surface water sampling in Karadere River. In order to determine the hydrochemical properties, two periods of surface water sampling were carried out in October-2020 and April-2021. The physical properties, major anion and cation analysis results of the water samples were evaluated according to the World Health Organization WHO, TS266 (Regulation on Water Intended for Human Consumption) and Water Pollution Control Regulation. Water types in Karadere surface water were determined as Ca-HCO3 and Ca-Na-HCO3. It has been determined that Karadere surface water is suitable for drinking water in terms of this physical parameters and major anions-cations according to WHO and TS266 Regulation on Water Intended for Human Consumption. According to the Water Pollution Control Regulation, all parameters were determined to be in I and II water class. When examined in terms of pollution, it is seen that Karadere surface water is in IV class water class according to NO2 content. It has been determined that the Al and Fe values of the rainy period in terms of trace element contents are above the limit values defined in the TS266 Regulation on Water Intended for Human Consumption. It has been determined that Karadere surface water can be used in agricultural activities in all plants except for plants that are sensitive to sodium and in plants that need moderate salt.

264 - 279

Authors: İbrahim Dursun, Nilüfer Yazıcı

Climate is defined as the average of meteorological conditions observed in a location or region over a long period of time. Climate knowledge helps to estimate the character and vegetation of a region in relation to weather conditions. The number of climate types is quite large, and numerous climate classifications have been developed over the years. The main purpose of climate classifications is to distinguish different climate types and identify the areas which show similar climatic conditions. Climate types can be classified based on different climate parameters, such as temperature and precipitation. The Köppen and Thornthwaite methods are the most commonly used climate classification methods. In this study, we aimed to determine the climate types and water potential of Isparta province by long-term climate data based on Köppen and Thornthwaite climate indices. According to Köppen-Trewartha climate classification, Isparta and its districts have been classified as “Dack” (hot in summers, cold in winters, temperate continental). According to the Thornthwaite method, Atabey and Yalvac districts are in the "semi-arid- less humid" climate cluster while Isparta, Egirdir, Senirkent, and Uluborlu are in the "semi-humid" climate cluster. A moderate excess of moisture was observed in all the stations during the season.

292 - 304

Authors: Okan Mert Katipoğlu

Determining trends in potential evapotranspiration (PET) values is of great importance in climate change and drought management, more efficient management of agricultural water resources, and optimal design of irrigation planning. This study carried trend analyses of seasonal and annual PET values calculated between 1964 and 2017 for Batman, Cizre, Diyarbakır, and Hakkâri meteorological stations located in the Tigris basin. Şen's Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Mann-Kendall Rank Correlation (MKRC) methods were used to determine the trends. Thornthwaite methodology, which is frequently used in the calculation of PET values, is simple and requires less data. At the end of the research, according to the ITA method, while the PET data of the stations selected in the basin generally had statistically significant increasing trends, statistically significant decreasing trends were determined for the Diyarbakır station in the spring and winter seasons. According to the MKRC test, there are significant increases in PET values at station locations, except for winter. In addition, although the ITA and MKRC tests overlap to a large extent, the increasing trends detected with ITA at some stations could not be determined by the MKRC test. The results obtained provide important information to decision-makers in planning and efficient use of agricultural water resources and developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat the effects of global warming.

317 - 328

Authors: Nihal Zengin, Ruşen Yamaçlı

Urbanization is increasing under the influence of many factors and the need for shelter cannot be met. The resulting building stock causes agglomeration in urban areas. Climate change caused by urban agglomeration leads to global temperature change. Temperature increases are experienced by urbanization, which produces latent heat. With global warming comes climate change. In the changing climate, the present and future thermal performances of buildings should be considered in the architectural design process. Sustainable architectural design, planning and material selection will ensure that the CO2 emission rate of the building sector, which plays an active role in global warming, will change positively by using existing resources effectively and efficiently by considering future generations. In this research article, answers are sought to the questions of what kind of a process architectural design should be under the influence of global warming and how the sustainability of the design can be ensured. For this reason, by proposing Biophilic Design, it has been determined that the need for air conditioning and energy consumption will decrease, and thus more sustainable cities will emerge by reducing greenhouse gas and gaseous reactive nitrogen compounds emissions. As a result of this study, the importance of emergency action plans and long-term strategies for climate problems along with a sustainable architectural design model is revealed.

341 - 350

Authors: Zeynep İpek, İbrahim Uyanık

In this study, the contribution of power plants belonging to industrial power generation facilities in Kayseri City Center to air pollution was investigated. For this reason, in the five-year period between 2015-2019 in Kayseri Province, besides the natural gas used in the industry, the emission amounts have been revealed with the data obtained from the power plants that use coal for industrial energy supply. The contributions of these sources to air pollution are also evaluated on an annual basis with the data of the National Air Quality Monitoring Network. In addition, the relationship between emission amounts and pollutant concentrations on an annual basis was examined using the Pearson correlation. The emission amounts calculated for the total PM (particulate matter), SO2 and NOx parameters during the five-year period, 2015-2019, are 1,540 tons, 500 tons and 10,328 tons, respectively. As a result of the emission amounts (tons/year) calculated for the PM, SO2 and NOx parameters, the emission rates of the three pollutants are 14%, 4% and 82%, respectively. When the contribution of coal used in power plants in industries and natural gas used in industry to air pollution in Kayseri is compared, it is seen that coal makes the highest contribution with 89% of PM 97% of SO2 and 62% of NOx. It was concluded that the decrease in PM10 concentrations and the increase in NOx concentrations from 2015 to 2019 may be associated with the increase in natural gas use in the city. The use of industrial natural gas and coal could not be associated with the change in SO2 concentrations. It has been found that the NOx emission amounts originating from the use of coal for energy production in industrial facilities have a high correlation with the NOx concentration. In future studies, the contribution of each point source to air pollution can be determined by determining the use of domestic coal and natural gas.

359 - 367

Authors: Sena Güneş, Bahtiyar Efe

In this study, temporal analysis of heatwaves and cold waves has been made for Samsun province. Within the scope of the study, the maximum and minimum temperature data obtained from Samsun city centre and Bafra meteorology stations located are used. In the study, the 90th percentile of maximum air temperatures for each season are calculated and used as threshold to detect the heat waves by using the R program. The 10th percentile of minimum air temperatures for each season are calculated and used as threshold to detect the cold waves. The lasting of the maximum air temperatures above the 90th percentile for at least five consecutive days is described as a heat wave. The lasting of the minimum air temperatures below the 10th percentile for at least five consecutive days is described as a cold wave. It has been calculated that the number of heat waves in Samsun and Bafra has decreased towards the last years, and the number of cold waves has decreased towards the last years. The average duration of heat waves increases for both stations in all seasons. The duration of cold air waves has decreased except for the autumn season for both stations. In the autumn season, the duration of cold air waves has increased at both stations.

383 - 395

Authors: Ismet Yener, Kazım Onur Demirarslan

Air pollution due to anthropogenic activities is currently one of the most important problems faced worldwide. This study aimed to determine the associations between air quality and spatial, meteorological, and anthropogenic factors while evaluating air quality using the air stress index (ASI) and the daily air quality (DAQx) scale. The annual mean levels of CO, NOx, O3, PM 2.5, PM10 and SO2 in the region were 718.6, 39.5, 44.4, 25.5, 51.3, and 9.9 μg/m3, respectively. While anthropogenic variables mostly affected NOx (r=0.56 to 0.64) and O3 (r=-0.34 to 0.64), meteorological (r=-0.38 to 0.45) and spatial factors (r=-0.41 to -0.65) mostly affected particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10). CO and SO2, on the other hand, were affected by all types of variables at varying directions and rates. The mean ASI and DAQx values of 2.1 and 4.3 indicated that the air quality in the region exhibited distinct air stress and sufficient air quality, respectively. The findings and outcomes could contribute to understanding and evaluating the air quality in the region and could be used as a base for further studies.

408 - 420

Authors: Alper Bilgili, Gaye Sanatcı Aktaş

The paradigm shift in the understanding of public administration has brought some changes in disaster management as well. Instead of a command-control-based centralized and bureaucratic disaster management approach that requires bureaucratic expertise, a multi-actor and solidarist disaster management approach, in which authorities and responsibilities are not constructed from top to bottom, has gained weight. In this context, it was determined as the problem of the research that "determining which of the centralist/bureaucratic disaster management and multi-actor/solidarity disaster management models are mainly applied in disaster management policies", and in this context, "decision-making authority and implementation responsibility regarding disaster management are central government, local governments and how is it shared among non-governmental organizations?”. The answer to this question has been sought. The research includes the analysis of the 2020 Aegean Sea Earthquake, which was recorded as the deadliest earthquake among the earthquakes that occurred in the world in 2020, in the form of content analysis with the MAXQDA Analytics Pro 20 program, which is used in the analysis of qualitative and mixed methods. The data used in the research: 30-31 October and 1 November belonging to the official Twitter accounts of the Izmir Governor's Office and the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency within the scope of the central government, and AKUT and IHH Humanitarian Relief Foundation within the scope of the non-governmental organizations of the Izmir Metropolitan Municipality and Seferihisar Municipality within the scope of local administrations. It includes posts from 2020. As a result of the research, it has been concluded that the multi-actor/solidarist disaster management approach is included in the policy documents, but in the event of a disaster, the authority and responsibility are mainly carried out under the control of the central government.

1-13

Authors: Emre KEBAPÇIOĞLU; Turgay PARTAL

Recent studies show that global atmospheric circulations are efficient on climate parameters. This study has been carried out to analyze the relationship between the streamflow data in Büyük Menderes/Gediz Basin and the global atmospheric oscillations such as the Southern Oscillation (SO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The average annual and seasonal flows at the current 5 stations located in Büyük Menderes basin and Gediz basin, whose measurements were made by the DSI in the 45 year period between 1970 and 2015 have been studied. Then, the relationship between NAO, AO, SO indices and streamflows was determined by correlation analysis. In addition, in order to obtain the periodic components, the original observed data were separated into their components by discrete wavelet transform. The correlations between the found wavelet components (D1, D2, D3, D4 and A) and atmospheric indices were examined. As a result, this study found that there is a strong negative correlation between the streamflow and the AO/NAO indices at the annual/winter and spring period. Moreover, the wavelet periodic components showed to the main factors for the relationship of the streamflow data with the global atmospheric patterns.

25-36

Authors: Evren TURHAN; Buse DUYAN ÇULHA; Serin DEĞERLİ

Drought has been among the priority issues for a long time because of its effects that vary depending on duration and severity. Hydrological drought can be explained as the decrease in clean water resources caused by climate change. In this paper, Arsuz Plain, one of the agricultural protected area in the Asi River Basin, was selected as the case study for the hydrological drought analysis. Firstly, discharge-time and flow duration curves (FDC) were created by using monthly average discharge data between the years of 1990 and 2015 which were obtained from three different Flow Observation Stations (FOSs) (numbered D19A021, D19A022 and D19A023), located close to each other. With the help of these data, Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) values were calculated for different time scales such as 3, 6 and 12 months. Consequently, it has been seen that all three stations have similar results in terms of the peak flow rate values excluding a few periods. As of 2000, it has been observed that Extreme Drought and Extremely Wet periods have started to occur in the basin for these stations. While the most wet period began between the years 2009 and 2010, the driest period was 2014. Considering the course of the drought event in different time scales, it can be concluded that the number of dry periods has increased in recent years.

53-65

Authors: Aslı TEKLİ; Seda ASLAN KILAVUZ; Zehra BOZKURT

Düzce province, where industry, traffic and residential areas are intertwined, is developing rapidly and therefore environmental pollution is intensely felt in the region. Air pollutants from emission sources cannot be dispersed due to the geographical location of the province and pose important health risks. In this study, dust samples were collected at different locations in order to explain the regional pollution distribution and various emission sources. Because children are more sensitive to air pollutants, indoor and outdoor environments of primary schools were selected for sampling. PCB levels were determined in dust samples collected from indoor and outdoor environments of the primary schools in Düzce. PCB analyses were performed by using the Gas chromatograph/Mass Spectrometer (GC/MS) instrument. In the obtained results, outdoor ΣPCB concentrations were between 0.737 and 22.307 ng/gr, with an average of 3,626 ng/gr. Indoor ΣPCB concentrations were between 17.17 and 294.22 ng/gr, with an average of 66.89 ng/gr. High ∑PCB concentrations in indoor samples show that the contribution of indoor sources and the effect of accumulation in indoor environments by transport from the outdoor environments is greater. In the evaluation made according to outdoor sources, the highest concentrations were obtained mostly at points close to the industrial area. The lowest concentrations were measured at rural sampling points.

76-86

Authors: Beyza YILMAZ; Mehveş DEMİREL; Filiz BALÇIK

Recently, increasing wildfires have caused severe damage to vegetation and many living creatures. Remote sensing technologies and various algorithms are used to determine and analyze the burned forest areas. Different remotely sensed images such as Sentinel-2 MSI, Landsat, MODIS, SPOT were used to determine forest fire damage and to produce maps for burned areas. In this study, the 6 July 2020 dated wildfire that occurred in the Gallipoli district of Çanakkale province has been analyzed by using Sentinel-2 MSI and Landsat-8 OLI satellite images. Burned Area Index (BAI), Normalized Moisture Index (NDMI), Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were calculated with the pre and post-fire satellite images of the study area. The differences of the pre and post-fire indices were calculated to determine the burned forest area. Error matrix was produced for accuracy assessment. Overall accuracy, user accuracy, producer accuracy, and Kappa statistics were calculated, and performances were evaluated for different sensors and different indices by comparing the accuracy assessment results. The highest accuracy results were achieved with Differenced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (dNDVI) for both Landsat-8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI images, and Kappa statistic results were obtained as 0.94 and 0.95, respectively.

103-110

Authors: Emel ZERAY ÖZTÜRK

The climate changes observed in recent years require the efficient use of water resources. In this respect, policies followed for sustainable water management necessitate continuous monitoring of water mobility. In recent years, it is possible to produce maps for the monitoring of water resources, trend estimations and visualization of changes in water areas, with remote sensing technology. Especially with the integration of satellite gravimetry and global hydrological models, these studies can be carried out relatively quickly and at low cost. In this study, water storage changes (TWSA: Total Water Storage Anomaly) in the region of Konya basin were evaluated using the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite mission and GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) data. In addition, the short and long term effects of climate changes on the results have been investigated. The results show that between 2002 and 2020, groundwater and, accordingly, the total water storage changes have a negative trend in the long term, in the study area. Additionally, it can be deduced that TWSA and climatological variables including precipitation and temperature have a high correlation at 2- and 3-month lags.

122-133

Authors: İlhami DOĞAN; Murat KARABULUT

The effects of global warming are not the same in every region of the world. Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin is one of the areas affected by this warming. Summer drought significantly felt in Turkey, where climatic conditions are constantly changing due to global warming. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously observed phenological events in the climate control. Various methods such as remote sensing systems, meteorological observations and species-based local evaluations are used in the investigation of phenological events. Growing degree-days (GDD) is one of the phenological prediction models based on meteorological variability. In this study, daily maximum and daily minimum temperature records of 147 meteorological observation stations were used to determine annual and seasonal trends of GDD in Turkey. GDD trends in various periods were determined by Mann-Kendall sequential statistics method. According to the survey, seasonal and annual trends in from 1970 to 2018 GDD are positive characters. In this process in the control of climate change, important phenological shifts have occurred in Turkey. BDG increases observed in summer; In agriculture and forestry, it may have increased drought-based heat stress even more. The positive trends in the study are thought to be effective on natural ecosystems through industry, agriculture, settlement, and natural resources. For this reason, basic climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation need to be collected at more local scales.

142-155

Authors: Alperen CİHAN; Kübra CERİT; Arzu ERENER

Fighting fires is an extremely important issue to prevent the loss of forests. With the developing technology, satellite images have become one of the basic tools for fighting fire over time. By using various indexes, it is possible to detect the burning area from satellite images with image processing analysis and surface temperature analysis. Unlike the methods made by ground measurements, it is very fast and relatively less costly. In this study, the Deliömerli forest fire that took place in Menderes district of Izmir province on July 1, 2017, and lasted about 67 hours was analyzed using Landsat-8 satellite images. The surface temperature maps were created from the images obtained before and during the fire, and surface temperature differences were examined for different land uses. Accordingly, it has been observed that the surface temperature of the area burning during the fire increased compared to other land use areas. In determining the fire area, three different methods were used and the spatial size of the fire area was compared. In this context, 1,235 hectares with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), 1,221 hectares with Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) indices, and 1,296 hectares with the classification study were determined to be burned. It has been observed that the results are consistent with the damage assessment results announced by the General Directorate of Forestry. The burning areas were overlapped with the CORINE land use map and the extent of the impact of the fire on each land use class was examined. As a result of the overlap analysis, it was determined that 75.7% of the burning area was coniferous forests, 19.3% plant areas, 4.2% mixed forests and 0.7% agricultural areas.

165-177

Authors: Ayşe Handan DÖKMECİ; Öznur AKDUMAN

Due to its geostrategic location and global climate change, natural events have been experienced more frequently and severely in the last 10 years in our country. The probability of large-scale Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear and Explosive (CBRN-p) disasters that may occur with sequential effects, triggered by natural events, is generally low. However, the potential impacts on people, the environment, infrastructure, the economy of certain areas or the entire region/country are high. There are maps for natural events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides and avalanches in our country. However, there are no maps prepared for CBRN-p hazards. Considering that climate change increases the frequency and intensity of natural hazards related to weather, it is thought that knowing the inventory of hazards that may arise from existing CBRN-p substances can play a key role in reducing risks and preventing possible disasters. In our study, the concept of sequential disaster and CBRN-p hazards and risks that may arise from sequential disasters are discussed. In addition, maps containing industries and energy facilities in provinces where CBRN-p events are likely to occur, T.C. The earthquake, flood/flood, landslide and avalanche hazard maps created by the Ministry of Interior Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) were prepared by overlapping, and the risks that may arise as a result of sequential effects were evaluated based on the literature review. As a result of this evaluation, the interdependence of natural events and CBRN-p events; It has been revealed that critical steps such as reducing vulnerabilities, increasing resilience, assessing secondary disasters and risk reduction practices in critical infrastructures should be addressed, and the risks posed by mutually interacting, combined, interconnected and sequential hazards should not be ignored when making risk assessments. It is expected that our study will contribute to the literature in preventing CBRN-p events, which may be triggered by natural events in our country, from turning into sequential disasters, and will guide the preparation of CBRN-p hazard and risk maps.