Dogal Afetler ve Cevre Dergisi

1-10

Authors: Selçuk Alemdağ, Zülfü Gürocak, Ceren Özkirişçi Oktay

Kinematic analysis method is one of the widely used methods to evaluate potential failures such as planar, wedge and toppling in rock slopes. In this method, orientations of slope and discontinuity with the friction angle of the discontinuities planes are used to analyze possible failure types. However, the reliability of the results obtained from kinematical analyses is not sufficient for optimum slope design. For this reason, it is necessary that the results of kinematical analyses should be controlled using limit equilibrium or numerical analyses. In this study, stability of rock slopes on the highway of Bağlarbaşı-Tekke (Gümüşhane) was investigated using kinematical and limit equilibrium analyses. The results of thekinematical analyses showed that there may be planar and wedge type instabilities for the rock slopes numbered 5, 6, and 7. The limit equilibrium analyses conducted for the types of plane and wedge show that the rock slopes numbered 5 and 6 are instable while number 7 is stable.

21-39

Authors: Yasin Fahjan, Ferhat Pakdamar, Yaşasın Eryılmaz, Fatma Kara

To obtain the sustainability of social life and to increase resistance to disaster that cause loss of life and properties; it is possible to raise awareness in the community about disaster preparedness and engross to take all the components. Disaster planning is an approach that targets the correct use of resources to decrease negative impacts in the community after the disaster. In Turkey, earthquake losses have an important role in disaster planning. There are two basic approaches for earthquake loss estimation used in disaster planning namely deterministic and probabilistic. Uncertainties of the seismic risk assessment parameters can be generated from ground motion computations, structural inventories and risk methodologies. In this study, uncertainties in the ground motion estimations are investigated. Gebze district that located close to major fault lines at Marmara region, and had significant damage during Kocaeli earthquake (1990), is selected as a study case for the risk assessment scenarios. The uncertainties parameters in ground motion computation that have major effect on the risk assessment are considered as earthquake source, earthquake magnitude and soil parameters. As a result, building damage ratios, loss of life and the need for shelter are computed. The soil amplification effects on the seismic intensity level and damage ratios are emphasized. The earthquake hazard estimation and risk assessment computation were performed utilizing geographic information system based software AFAD-RED. The software combines the scenario based seismic hazard procedure with the existing building inventories and soil data for the risk estimations. As a result, it is concluded that, uncertainties in ground motion computations have important effect on the seismic risk assessment and should be considered in disaster planning process.

54-58

Authors: Kubilay Kaptan

The predictions related to earthquakes have drawn the attention of society as well as media in the developing countries where the ‘common’ people have different perceptions. Most often, popular myths take over scientific facts among the public, and this can lead to rumors about natural hazards. This article will mention rumors related to natural disasters, and particularly the rumors regarding the response of society, media and government when earthquakes happen. This research emphasizes the ethical responsibility needed to be undertaken by scientists to avoid panic instead of the rumors by pseudo-experts. This article summarizes the efforts provided by the scientists to prevent the recent rumors about a sudden water rise in Lake Van, the flash flood occurred in the Samsun Province and the earthquake happened (M 6.7, October 23, 2011) in the Van Province in Turkey.

66-73

Authors: Kazım Demirarslan, Şenay Çetin Doğruparmak

This study was conducted to investigate the dispersion of spatial source CO and NOx emissions with the help of different models in Korfez District, Kocaeli Province. Emissions from residential areas were chosen as the spatial source in the region and residents were divided into four different sections. The residential area is 5.31 km2 and natural gas, fuel-oil, wood, and coal are used as heating fuels in this district. With the help of the obtained data, emission rates were calculated using the mass-based emission factors of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. These ratios were divided into residential areas and data were obtained in g/s.m2 and these data were entered to AERMOD, ISCST-3 and CALPUFF VIEW programs for the purpose of modelling. As a result of the modelling study, daily and annual dispersion maps were obtained. When the maps were examined, with AERMOD, the daily maximum concentrations of CO and NO were estimated to be 651,27 μg/m3, 18,29 μg/m3 while the annual concentrations were found as 128,47 μg/m3 and 2,90 μg/m3, respectively. The obtained daily maximum CO and NOx values with the help of ISCST-3 program were as 290,29 μg/m3 and 11,77 μg/m3 and the maximum annual values were as 86,48 μg/m3 and 1,95 μg/m3, respectively. The values of CO and NOx emissions obtained with the help of CALPUFF modelling program were as 692,67 µg/m3 and 15,64 µg/m3 , respectively, on daily basis and as 124,08 µg/m3 and 4,53 µg/m3 respectively, on annual basis. While there seemed to be a similarity in all three programs for CO when considering dispersion directions on the distribution maps, it was pointed out that the concentrations dispersed in the direction of east and west of Korfez district on AERMOD and CALPUFF maps as this dispersion was towards to the west of the county on ISCST-3 map. On NOx distribution maps, the residential areas of Korfez district were observed as the locations of density for NOx. The concentration propagation directions were same for all three programs particularly for annual dispersions maps and the concentration levels at receiver points in these directions were also determined as equal.