Business and Economics Research Journal

761-776

Authors: Gamze Oz-Yalaman, Deniz Sevinc, Guven Sevil

One of the most important goals of policy-makers is to achieve macroeconomic stability, which could significantly be affected by output volatility. In an effort to provide insights with regard to macroeconomic stability, this study aims to model the volatility of output by using univariate GARCH models and to examine the impact of government size on output volatility by using extensive data set from eight different classifications of world economies for the period between 1960 and 2017. The study also employs the Granger Causality Analysis to determine the direction of this relationship. The results provide strong evidence for a negative relation between government size and output volatility. Output volatility is largely dependent on its own shocks and negatively influenced by outside shock as government size. Moreover, confirming Keynesian Hypothesis, the results show that there is mostly one-way causality from government size to output volatility. The results are robust in terms of different classifications of world economies, different measurements of output volatility,different methodologies and controlling for the effect of different sets of exogenous variables.

789-806

Authors: Ali Ilhan, Metin Ozdemir

After the global financial crisis, it has been seen that many emerging markets like Turkey have developed policy frameworks that allow for price stability and financial stability taken together. The CBRT has implemented new policy mix since November 2010, in response to need to respond flexibly to the problems faced by orthodox inflation targeting and the changes in global capital flows. In this study, it is aimed to evaluate the policies implemented under new policy mix. Analyzing the monetary policy and macroprudential policy practices within the framework of new policy mix, it has seen that policies have shown a successful performance in achieving the intermediate targets that determined in line with financial stability. On the other hand, it should be noted that policymakers -to keep single digit interest rates permanent and sustain economic growth- ignored the internal risks of the new policy mix and delayed the steps that required for normalization of monetary policy. However, the use of macroprudential policy for the purpose of economic growth has created policy dilemmas due to an unstable course of economic growth that caused by to the rise in inflation rate and changing the global policy environment. Although the new policy mix has seen to be successful in achieving financial stability, it has to be stated that due to the delay in normalization and the lack of price stability make it a victim of its own success.

823-832

Authors: Huseyin Tastan, Arifenur Gungor

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the slowly moving long-run component of daily volatility of Turkish stock market and a set of monthly macroeconomic variables. In the first stage, we estimate the long-term volatility of BIST100 index using GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) method. Subsequently, we examine the relationship between the long-term volatility component and interest rate, USD/TL exchange rate, inflation rate, CDS premium, real sector confidence index and the volatility of S&P500 index using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Empirical results suggest that the most significant macroeconomic variable affecting the long-run volatility of BIST100 index is the exchange rate. Also, we show that the long-run volatility of BIST100 index is positively associated with both CDS premium and the volatility of S&P500. Finally, we find that an increase in real sector confidence index leads to a decrease in the long-run component of the BIST100 index volatility.

845-853

Authors: Yasemin Deniz Koc, Sibel Celik, Hakan Celikkol

The index type created from the stocks of companies operating in accordance with Islamic principles is called “participation index”. In this study, whether the inclusion of companies operating in Borsa Istanbul National Market and in accordance with Participation Banking principles in the BIST Participation 30 Index had an effect on the price of stocks, was analyzed with the event study method. As a result of the analysis, it was observed that the cumulative abnormal returns had been on decline before the companies were included in the participation index, and the decline continued on the day of the event and the following days. The findings obtained are meaningful and typical for all relevant economic units, especially for investors and market makers.

867-883

Authors: Alparslan Serel, Huseyin Guvenoglu

The monetary authorities are trying to be effective on the real economy with their monetary policies. Monetary policies affect economic activities through monetary transmission mechanism. In the literature, it is seen that monetary policy transmission channels are gathered under five different headings as interest rate channel, asset prices channel, exchange rate channel, credit channel and expectation channel. In order for the monetary authorities to reach their desired targets on economic activities, it is important to determine which transmission channel operate effectively. In this study, the effectiveness of the bank credit channel in Turkey, vector autoregression (VAR) with the help of the method, 2011: 01-2018: 12 period were analyzed using monthly data. The findings of the analysis show that the bank credit channel in Turkey is effective.

903-913

Authors: Ali Ihsan Akgun, Nurhan Ture

The role of stress in accounting profession has been examined in behavioral accounting literature in many studies conducted over the last three decades. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between personality and perceived stress level on the independent public accountants in Turkey by using Eysenck personality type used to identify the personality characteristics of the independent public accountants and the stress level scale to determine the sources of stress and to specify behavior types in stressful events. Our research findings establish that there is a significant difference between personality type and perceived stress level. In addition, there is a negative relationship between extraverted personality attribute and perceived stress level and a positive relationship between intraverted personality attribute and perceived stress level.