Modeling the Interaction of Ethnic Groups: New Aspects
Authors: Oleg V. Tikhanychev
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The work is devoted to the issues of forecasting the interaction of ethnic groups, carried out in terms of modern society. The subject of the research is the influence on the interethnic interaction of borders and state relations, taking into account these factors in modeling the processes of interethnic interaction.
As the analysis of the subject area shows, the most important stage of a typical management cycle, in any area, is to predict the consequences of decisions. The main forecasting tool that provides the most objective estimates is mathematical modeling. In modern conditions, with the increasing role of non-military methods of inter-state confrontation, the importance of predicting the consequences of political decisions is growing. But, as the analysis shows, there is no reliable mathematical apparatus for such forecasting. The use of qualitative estimates based on the theory of passionarity or quantitative estimates obtained using the apparatus of the dynamics of averages to obtain forecasts does not always provide an acceptable accuracy of the forecast. The main reason for this is the lack of consideration in these methods of modern conditions of inter-ethnic interaction, characterized by the presence of state borders, factors of domestic and international law.
The article describes the mathematical apparatus based on the methods of the theory of similarity and the model of the electric circuit, forming the prerequisites for solving this problem. The possible advantages of its application are evaluated and the principles of its implementation are proposed.
The conclusion is made about the possibility of practical application of the proposed mathematical apparatus for the formation of boundary conditions in models of interethnic interaction based on proven principles of dynamics of averages.