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Effects on the savings to reduce the volatility of oil in the Persian Gulf and the vulnerability of the economy to sustainable growth
Authors: Rita Asmoniow
Number of views: 358
The global energy market has observed several shocks in oil prices in recent past. These oil price shocks if positive, offer immense benefit to oil-exporting economies in terms of generating enormous export revenue. The surplus current account balances easily promote infrastructural investments and sustainable growth of GDP due to increasing savings level. In this article, we investigate the simultaneous links between oil price changes, national savings, legal and institutional development, and economic growth in the GCC countries, by applying variety of econometric models and controlling for the standard end ogeneity problem. Our study includes six GCC countries namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), over the period 1980-2011. Results show a nonlinear and concave relationship between saving rates and economic growth. This result indicates that, when economic growth shows low level, the increase in savings leads to high economic growth. However, contrary to this, as the countries’ revenues and surpluses increase significantly (at higher levels in revenues and savings), high level of savings lead to lower growth in the economy. The reason might be the lack of absorption capacity within the domestic economy of the GCC markets.