Security and Defence Quarterly

6-20

Authors: Stig Rune Sellevåg

The objective of this work has been to propose a framework that will aid governments with the development of more coherent and effective infrastructure planning and resilience policies through a system-of-systems approach that is grounded in theory for complex sociotechnical systems. The framework has been developed by using a work domain analysis (WDA). The WDA consists of an abstraction hierarchy analysis and a part-whole decomposition. Together, the abstraction hierarchy and the part-whole description form the abstraction-decomposition space (ADS) for which the system constraints apply. By imposing constraints, the WDA promotes design for adaptation where actors within the system are allowed to adapt their behaviour as they find appropriate without violating the system’s constraints. The proposed ADS consists of five levels of abstraction and four levels of decomposition. By applying the ADS, it will aid decision making related to the overall purposes of the critical infrastructure system, the values and priority measures that are used to assess the system’s progress towards the functional purposes, as well as formulation of infrastructure needs that are necessary to achieve the functional purposes. The framework is formative in the sense that it reveals how work can be done in the critical infrastructure system. This is important because it is not feasible to prescribe, describe and risk assess all possibilities for action that are available in complex sociotechnical systems, especially when dealing with unforeseen events. Future research should focus on finding science-based yet useful in practice ways for establishing values and priority measures that encompass sustainability issues and resilience standards.

33-44

Authors: Ossi Heino

This paper considers terrorism as potentially ‘intelligent’, as a threat capable of abusing the critical infrastructures of societies and the related methods for knowledge production. Respectively, it sees critical infrastructures as attractive mediums for terrorist influence. The paper describes the contrast between the logic of providing security and certainty for critical infrastructures and the threat of terrorism, which is evolving in terms of its systemic capacities and intelligence. The way security is provided within critical infrastructures and the way intelligent terrorism could operate seem to separate from each other, thereby creating vulnerability. The paper seeks to enhance the conceptual understanding of this question by describing and closing the gap created by the intellectual separation. By doing so, the article will shed light on the conceptual dimension of the (in)security that has gone unnoticed in the interface between critical infrastructures and terrorism. It outlines the aforementioned dilemma and provides conceptual understanding that makes it easier to grasp and communicate further. The paper shows that the intellectual separation has weakened the possibilities for theoretically understanding and practically recognising terrorism as a phenomenon that is becoming systemically more conscious, more intelligent and potentially increasingly capable in a form of violence that exploits the basic structures of societies and the related knowledge methods for its own purposes. As a conclusion, the paper stresses the importance of profoundly critical tools. Such tools are often perceived as being undesirable or even counter-productive in figuring out the mechanism through the very means utilised in providing for security.

63-75

Authors: Obinna Ukaeje

Against a background of contemporary security challenges such as terrorism, violent extremism, insurgency, armed banditry, and separatist movements across the country, the study attempts to examine critical infrastructure protection. With the aid of largely secondary data, the study finds that there is an inextricable link between CIP and institutional corruption in Nigeria. Institutional corruption has been a major factor inhibiting effective critical infrastructure protection in Nigeria. This is because funds meant for the strengthening of operational effectiveness of the agencies are often diverted to other expenditure that does not have an effect on the operational strength of the agencies, thereby undermining their capacity to deliver on their mandates and increasing the vulnerability of the infrastructures to vandalism. The study recommends the adoption of a whole-of-society approach to CIP in Nigeria, because of its ability to block leakages and ensure transparency in the business of government as well as encouraging all stakeholders, the state, private, CSOs, the media, traditional institutions and all others involved, to share responsibilities in the protection of infrastructures as part of their concerns.

88-107

Authors: Jędrzej Łukasiewicz, Anna Kobaszyńska - Twardowska

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) pose a threat to buildings and facilities important to the security of the state. As they are able to operate like individual aircraft, the number of ways they can be used for terrorist activity is practically unlimited. Anyone in charge of a facility that is crucial for the reliable functioning of a state is obliged to ensure an acceptable level of security. Since drones can be used to attack protected structures, they need to be protected by an anti-drone system. The paper proposes a method for assessing the effectiveness of systems for detecting and neutralising unmanned aerial vehicles. In order to suggest a new method for assessing the effectiveness of anti-drone systems, an analysis of the scientific literature and other documents describing existing anti-drone systems has been carried out. Attacks involving the use of drones, both in wartime and in incidents of terrorism, are also analysed and existing anti-drone solutions assessed. Because there are a variety of technical solutions for the detection and neutralisation of drones, and different location and weather conditions, a universal method is proposed based on probability calculations and neutralisation of drones, using mathematical formulas. This method allows for the effectiveness of the entire anti-drone system to be assessed on the basis of measuring the probability of detection and neutralisation of drones in real conditions. The proposed method allows the effectiveness of the currently existing anti-drone systems to be evaluated and for new methods for detecting and neutralising drones to be proposed. This method, based on mathematical calculations, enables software to be written for simulating anti-drone systems on computers and for the effectiveness of these systems to be confirmed before their construction in a protected facility.

16-30

Authors: Ayesha Jawad

Terrorism has changed the national and international security milieu over the last few years; however, there have been metamorphoses in the phenomenon of defining security in light of new threats of terrorism. This research critically evaluates the anti-terrorism legal regime of Pakistan along with its structural flaws. While vigorous efforts to defeat terrorism have taken place in Pakistan, much needs to be done to achieve de-radicalisation along with identifying and addressing areas of vulnerability. This research moves in three directions: firstly, it looks into the background of extremism in terms of ethnic and sectarian conflicts that led Pakistan to embark on the journey to combat terrorism; secondly, it evaluates how these laws aimed exclusively at countering terrorism have not been as effective as hoped; and thirdly, it offers an in-depth analysis of flaws in the judicial system and analysis of capacity gaps in relation to prosecution of terrorist offences in Pakistan. Lastly, this research makes recommendations for eliminating the causes of institutional and legal inefficiencies that feed and nurture terrorism in Pakistan. The qualitative method is used in this research, which holds that Pakistan needs to make effective structural changes to implement counterterrorism strategies constructively, such as, capacity-building of judiciary and law enforcement agencies, acceptance of innovation in investigation methods, amendments in procedural laws and comprehensive, unambiguous and detailed legislation. Amendments to existing anti-terrorism laws need to be adapted to the changing security trends in the region. In order to combat the high rate of acquittal under these laws, a strong and focused approach is required.

51-61

Authors: Andrius Bivainis

This article contains an assessment of the last war in the Southern Caucasus, referring to it as the second Nagorno–Karabakh war. The assessment is concentrated on the military capabilities built up prior to the major escalation of this war and operational features identified during the battles. The assessment uses analytic categories of processed information and initiatives that sovereign actors took during decision cycles and the conduct of military campaigns. Those analytic categories are named dimensions, with the strategic and military dimensions being the most important for this analysis. The key findings of this article suggest that additional dimensions could be used in researching the complex conditions of the war, which might have a continuous impact even outside the Southern Caucasus. The review of initiatives at the strategic dimension suggested that the built-up of two competing security policy fractions in the South Caucasus was an influential factor. The assessment of the military dimension of that war provided insights regarding the tactical choices of both adversaries. That assessment revealed some significant differences in how the campaign was conducted on both sides. Further complex tensions in the region are expected as national political decisions will drive strategic choices and drive the development of military capabilities. Given the fact that both countries were short of a consensus-based peace deal and Russia sent in peacekeeping forces, further developments in the political and strategic dimensions of this war saga should be expected.

83-85

Authors: Ben de Jong

Books on the subject of arguably the best-known KGB spy ring in the West during the Cold War, the so-called Cambridge Five, continue to roll off the press.1 The Cambridge Five were five British students who were recruited as agents by the NKVD, a forerunner of the KGB, in Cambridge in the 1930s. All five would occupy key positions inside British government agencies during World War II and in the years following its conclusion. In 2015 and 2016 alone, two excellent biographies were published about the man who was undoubtedly the most colourful of the five: Guy Burgess.2 It was his flight to Moscow in May 1951 with Donald Maclean, his fellow diplomat at the British Foreign Office, that sparked the unravelling of the network. Their flight took place once Maclean realised he was in acute danger of being interrogated and arrested for his spying. That in turn caused the suspicion of the British authorities to fall on Kim Philby, another one of the five, who since 1949 had been the liaison of the British Secret Intelligence Service (SIS, also known as MI6) in Washington DC. This meant he was in close contact with the FBI and the CIA and was therefore in a position not just to transmit British secrets to the KGB, but many American secrets as well

24-40

Authors: Paulo Jorge Gomes

A high performance level in a public organisation is fundamental. The Portuguese Armed Forces can influence the environment, both external and internal, and should therefore have a high performance level and adequate development of military capabilities. For that, it is fundamental to understand the importance of military capabilities for combatting the threats of the 21st century. This paper aims to analyse the influence of military capabilities for combating the current threats and risks in fulfilling the various operations, and for optimising the performance of the Portuguese Armed Forces. A quantitative analysis was carried out from citizen and military convenience samples through correlations between variables, as well as measures of central tendency like mean and standard deviation. The results show that the development of military capabilities has a positive effect on the performance of the Portuguese Armed Forces, combatting conventional threats and risks, as well as threats to civil protection. This capabilities performance is related with the execution of military operations (external and internal). Therefore, a proper development of military capabilities (output) with a special focus on human resources and privilege and the efficiency and quality of the missions (outcomes) are essential to combat the threats of the 21st century.

55-67

Authors: Marta Gębska, Monika Krukowska

The COVID-19 pandemic began in March 2020 and China has since been under public scrutiny for neglecting the first signs of this global health challenge and for its lockdown strategy. Although lockdowns have not lasted for long, China needs to confront the political, social, and economic implications for its national security. The paper aims to fill a gap in the knowledge and investigate aspects of China’s national security in light of the pandemic. The study is based on desk research using secondary data and statistical and comparative analysis. It also employs an inductive method to build general theorems. The Chinese government can be seen as successful in dealing with the pandemic because of a low death toll and minimal economic losses. By early February 2022, only 106,863 Chinese had been diagnosed, and 4,636 had died from the virus. China also achieved enviable economic success and, its output grew by 18.3% year on year in the first quarter of 2021, the fastest rate since the 1990s, and it was the first major economy to withdraw its pandemic stimulus. China consolidated its position in low-income countries and improved its image as a global leader in trade by supplying vaccines, masks and ventilators, and strengthened its geopolitical standing. It will face threats from other countries working on a joint approach to the challenges posed by Beijing and while the aftereffects of the crisis can be seen, it also fears that they might further affect China's national security.

94-102

Authors: Magdalena Gikiewicz, Joanna Kozioł

The aim of the article is to present a conceptual approach to the use of the EU-SENSE system in exercises based on Kolb’s learning cycle. The methodology of the research conducted in 2018–2021 was based on an analysis of literature in the field of teaching adults and conducting training, chemical and ecological rescue, analysis of domestic and foreign materials and procedures in the field of chemical and ecological rescue, direct observation of the way of the State Guard Fire Service respond to CBRNe threats, taking place in the measurement test dams of the EU-SENSE system and for the analysis of the training module, which is an element of the EU-SENSE system. After completing the exercises, the participant should achieve learning outcomes in terms of knowledge, abilities and skills. The acquired knowledge and practical skills will allow firefighters and civilians to conduct effective and safe rescue operations in the field of chemical rescue during incidents involving hazardous chemicals in the future. Exercises in the field of chemical rescue with the use of the EU-SENSE system will lead to an improvement of skills within the State Fire Service and make it possible for it to cooperate and coordinate activities with entities cooperating in the field of crisis management activities.