Security and Defence Quarterly

7-22

Authors: Brian Martin

Military forces are sometimes called out to confront unarmed civilian protesters, a contingency for which they may or may not be prepared. Studies of civil-military relations have focused on relations between civilian and military elites, with interactions between armed forces and civilian protesters given little or no attention. The objective here is to improve understanding of military-protester dynamics. Key relevant features of nonviolent action are outlined, including methods, campaign stages and theoretical assumptions, with a particular focus on interactions with troops. The implications for military-protester dynamics are spelled out with illustrations from several protest campaigns. When troops use force against non-resistant protesters, this sometimes creates more support for the protest movement, a process called political jiu-jitsu. An important method used by some protesters is fraternisation, namely trying to win over troops to their side. Commanders and troops, through their actions, can encourage or discourage protesters’ use of nonviolent methods. Learning about military-protester dynamics is important for both strategists and practitioners.

51-66

Authors: Zsolt Bederna, Tamás Szádeczky

Computer networks are usually modelled from one aspect, e.g., the physical layer of the network, although this does not allow the researcher to understand all usage of that device. We aim to develop a model which leverages all aspects of a networked computer and, therefore, provides complete information to the scientist for all further security research, especially that related to the social sciences. Network science is about the analysis of any network, from social to protein. It is much easier to analyse computer networks with technical tools than protein networks. It is, therefore, a straightforward way to crawl the web as Albert-Laszlo Barabasi did to model its connections, nodes, and links in graph theory to analyse its internal connections. His analysis was based solely on the network layer. Our methodology uses graph theory and network science and integrates all ISO/OSI (computer networking) layers into the model. Each layer of the ISO/OSI model has its topology separately, but all of them also work as part of the complex system to operate the network. It therefore creates a multipartite graph of the network under analysis. Furthermore, the virtual private networks (VPNs) and application usage are also integrated as nodes and links. With this model, the computer network infrastructure and usage data can be used for further non-computing related research, e.g., social science research, as it includes the usage patterns of the network users.

91-105

Authors: Dimitrios G. Pantazis

This paper aims to examine how specific domestic social, political, and cultural motives impact national security agendas’ formation and implementation. The following assumptions drive this essay’s research rationale: Security-making processes are considered non-similar among states due to different domestic political processes, cultural discourses, and socialisation patterns. Therefore, national security agents are constantly being guided by various intrastate settings, which construct attitudes that are ultimately reflected upon policy formation and implementation through strategic behavioural manifestations. Thus, the realisation of national security is dependent on each state actor’s existent strategic culture, and given that, choices cannot be contemplated strictly under rationality. The methods of literature review and multi-layered analysis are applied throughout this study. In particular, this text’s reasoning is based on contextualisation, identification, categorisation of variables, and correlational implications. Concerning findings, the theoretical examination of the objects assessed provides adequate clarifications on the interaction among the domestic motives, decision-makers’ perspectives, and strategic cultural manifestations. Specifically, it was critically identified that the two last concepts may complementary function during security-making processes; hence, producing unique outcomes for each state actor. Consequently, this paper wishes to contribute by giving direction for future research and broader methodological implications on the role of intrastate socio-political and cultural motives as sources of strategic culture and determinants of national security-making attitudes; without ignoring that other factors can respectively affect the aforementioned schemes.

7-23

Authors: Yu Wang

This study examines the effect of bargaining power on the allocation of U.S. military assistance. Conceptualising U.S. military assistance as an aid-for-policy deal, it applies a two-tiered stochastic frontier model to a data sample of the post-Cold War era. It shows that the bargaining effect accounts for a huge variation in U.S. military aid distribution. The volume of U.S. military assistance in equilibrium is lower than the baseline volume by 4% at the mean and by 6% at the median. The donor U.S. extracts a slightly larger portion of the transaction surplus at these central points. However, the game of surplus division is not always about equally strong hagglers as it may first appear. In fact, the quartile values show substantial variance in bargaining performance and, hence, an outcome of surplus division across transactions. The bargaining effect is highly significant in the allocation of U.S. military assistance in the post-Cold War era. The donor U.S enjoys a bargaining advantage at the mean and median, but rich variations are noticeable.

47-61

Authors: Bogusław Jagiełło

The purpose of this article is to identify the policy orientations of Russia in the Balkans. The historical aspects of Russia's political and cultural ties with the Balkan region, Russia's policy toward the Balkans during the USSR period will be highlighted. As the Balkans are an important factor in Russia's geopolitical game to retain influence in Europe, the author analyses Russia's contemporary policy in the Balkans, its interests and the measures taken to achieve its specific goals. It can be concluded that Russian involvement in some Balkan countries is exhausting the elements of the hybrid war. Two possible models of geopolitical behavior in relation to Russia could be distinguished. The first is to continue trying to stay as far away from Russia, the second is to build effective mechanisms for socio-economic cooperation. It can be implied that Russia will not hesitate to repeat the hybrid war scenario from Ukraine in order to maintain its political influence in the region. Only the return of the EU to a consistent policy of enlargement to Balkan countries and the economic strengthening of the Member States from the Balkan region can weaken Russia's political influence in the region.

77-92

Authors: Cemil Doğaç İpek, Mehmet Çağatay Güler

This study considers Russian-Turkish relations within the context of the Syrian war. We elaborate on both Russia’s and Turkey’s strategies and their understanding of the Syrian War, and consider how the two countries have managed to stay on the same page despite conflictual strategies and geopolitical interests in Syria. The current literature does not address this question and does not thoroughly compare their actions and engagements in the field. This article aims to clarify Turkey-Russia relations in the Syria and provides evidence of how they are in conflict and cooperate at the same time. In this regard, it is argued that the available evidence indicates that Turkey-Russia relations in Syria operate on the “compartmentalisation” strategy. In order to test this argument, the qualitative research method based on secondary resources is used while the theoretical framework previously formulated by Onis and Yilmaz (2015) is adopted. They conceptualise Turkey-Russia relations as if they do “compartmentalise economic issues and geopolitical rivalries in order to avoid the negative spillover of certain disagreements into areas of bilateral cooperation.” Furthermore, they claim that compartmentalisation can be hindered if there are deepening security concerns in an area like Syria. However, this article underscores that compartmentalisation does not only work by separating the economic issue from geopolitical rivalries; it also makes Turkey and Russia able to cooperate and conflict in a specific and fundamentally conflictual geopolitical issue such as Syria. The convergences and divergences that occurred in the Syrian field are conceptualised under the strategy of compartmentalisation. In this context, the cooperation – the signed agreements and established mechanisms, conflicts, and clashes in the field, are acknowledged as the consequences of the compartmentalisation strategy in Syria. The compartmentalisation strategy is specifically used in Syria in order to avoid the negative impacts of direct clashes in bilateral cooperation and agreements. It can therefore be concluded that the deepening divergence in security related issue does not necessarily prevent compartmentalisation; on the contrary, compartmentalisation paves the way for stabilisation of such deepening divergence.

7-19

Authors: Miroslav Mitrovic

National security determines the degree to which endangering national interests that sublimate national values is absent. With a review of the genesis and framework of the modern interpretation of national security, the paper discusses its approaches to endangerment. A retrospective of the ideas of endangerment in the paradigm of the changed physiognomy of contemporary conflicts and dynamic geopolitical movements creates the need for an innovative approach and prediction in national security strategic assessments. The paper provides an overview of the internal and external political aspects of national security and a framework for the actions of prominent entities according to the perceived foreign policy interests of importance for the Republic of Serbia’s security. By analysing common and conflicting interests of Serbia and forces that have geopolitical interests in the Western Balkans, it is possible to establish the most objective framework for predicting the trend of relationship development and the vector of influence. The paper analyses Serbia’s interactions with Russia, the United States, and the EU. The findings point to a complex situation regarding Serbia’s national security, where Russia seeks to maintain its strong soft power presence, the United States wants close cooperation and insistence on recognising Kosovo’s independence, and the EU does not vigorously stimulate or promote Serbia’s European integration. In that way, a concrete contribution is made to the developing of strategic assessments of possible trends of importance for the Republic of Serbia’s security, as well as to the achievement of declared national goals.

38-52

Authors: Audrone Petrauskaite

Evolving threats to national security have resulted in the adoption of comprehensive (total) defence concepts by a number of small and medium states. Civil resistance constitutes a considerable part of such concepts, complementing military defence. The historical experience of Lithuania proved the value of nonviolent resistance between 1988 and 1991 for regaining independence, and defending it in January 1991. The aim of this article is to analyse the role of non-violent civil resistance in the national defence system, based on the experience of 13 January 1991 in Lithuania and develop further discussion about the concept of civil resistance. The methodological approach of the article is based on historical and theoretical analysis. This allows the experience of Lithuania to be assessed on the basis of Lithuanian National Security and Defence Strategy and scientific research. Lithuanian non-violent civil resistance in 1988–1991 was successful in terms of strategy, leadership, organisation, planning, non-violence priorities and the number of citizens involved. The leaders of the movement were able to mobilise people into a widespread movement based on their moral authority and value orientations, strongly appealing to different groups in society. Lithuania’s independence was achieved with minimal human sacrifice, preserving the country’s resources and infrastructure. This experience of non-violent civil resistance came to be used by modern state institutions to create strategic documents of the state. In the current situation, it is necessary to focus not only on the knowledge required for state defence and civil resistance, but also on its moral aspects such as values, ethical behaviour, civic and human maturity.

68-84

Authors: Mohamed Zied Chaari

The primary research objective is to reduce the dangers of rogue drones in our lives and the consequences of extremist groups, drug dealers, and organised criminals using them. The growing number of incidents involving modified drones proves the weakness of existing technology in stopping and neutralising errant drones such as the hand-held gun jammer, trained eagle, R.F. jammer, and others. This technology is not very likely to able to knock out a rogue drone and is incapable of stopping programmable drones. This article aims to examine the directed energy of HPM (high power microwaves) in using the electromagnetic field strength energy to damage the drone’s structure or burn its PCB board electronics. It goes on to analyse electronic attack using microwave power with high frequency to immediately switch off drones. The effectiveness of high microwave power for disrupting drones at different distances and in different weather conditions is evaluated. A study of the conical horn antenna of the magnetron coupling system, which has an operating frequency of 2.45 GHz, is also included.

7-13

Authors: Wiesław Lizak, Kamil Zajączkowski, Malwina Ewa Kołodziejczak

Safety is the fundamental value in the system of the needs of individuals, states, groups, and social systems. With reference to an existential dimension of a given subject’s being, it means the certainty of its survival and existence. It can be considered both as a factor determining the state of a subject at a specified time or over a longer period of time (the processual dimension) and, in the latter, it refers to the durability of the subject’s existence as well as its ability to survive and develop in a determined, subject-specific external environment. Safety as a category that describes the state of a subject means not only the lack of threats to its existence and functioning, but also assumes that there is a possibility that available measures exist for the subject to ensure the persistence of such a state, alternatively conducive to its change in a positive direction.

31-40

Authors: Markus Gauster

This work explores ecological and climate-related threats to Afghanistan and discusses support approaches from a European Crisis Management (ECM) perspective. It goes beyond the much-debated troop withdrawal, COVID-19 crisis and peace negotiations and opens an underestimated topic: ‘Climate Change Assistance’. The article aims to advance knowledge on the effects of climate change on human security in Afghanistan and advocates a conflict-sensitive approach. To this end, a climate-related assessment of the human security situation was undertaken and several threat scenarios, options and solutions for enhancing state resilience were developed. The bases for this research were several field trips undertaken by the author since 2004, workshops and an extensive literature review. As a result, it can be stated that the negative impacts of climate change and pollution on Afghanistan’s security and development architecture are massive and make ECM efforts very complex. However, several capacity-building initiatives for military, diplomatic, humanitarian and local stakeholders were identified. On the regional level, this includes the support for early warning systems and hydro-diplomacy with Pakistan, Iran and India. On the local level, the support for community water management and environmental protection matters, while building upon traditional Afghan mechanisms for handling water crises or disasters. Another outcome is the need for more in-depth research in this field as some findings are also useful for other fragile states. The paper argues that there is an urgent need for ECM to respond to the devastating effects of climate change in Afghanistan and identifies several smart opportunities to tackle some root causes of the conflict.

57-72

Authors: Sára Gibárti

After the breakout and the escalation of the Syrian civil war and because of its humanitarian consequences, Turkey now hosts the largest refugee community worldwide. This paper attempts to investigate the role of the international community in assisting Syrian refugees in Turkey. Beyond looking at the main elements of the Turkish government policies, this study focuses on the Emergency Social Safety Net Programme of the European Union, the World Food Programme and the Turkish Red Crescent. It also reviews the Turkish aspects of the Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan of the United Nations. The primary purpose of the study is to provide a comparative analysis of the two programmes alongside the main objectives, results and difficulties. Beyond reviewing the essential international literature, the examination of this issue is principally based on data analysis of the reports of relevant international organisations. The Turkish government plays an important role in this crisis and the actions of international organisations complement the country’s domestic policies. Two international aid programmes are compared and a conclusion is reached that the Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan tries to balance urgent humanitarian needs with durable solutions, while the Emergency Social Safety Net Programme is determined by humanitarian aspects. Nonetheless, both initiatives address the challenges to the Turkish host community which are posed by the protracted refugee issue. While acknowledging the remaining gaps, challenges and the obvious complexity of the refugee situation in Turkey, it can be concluded that the aid initiatives discussed have developed innovative solutions to address this protracted crisis.

87-104

Authors: Veronika Deák

The public service sector is a key target of cyberattacks. In order to prevent and effectively tackle such attacks, organisations should continuously develop their defence capabilities. As part of developing such capabilities, public service cybersecurity training is required to teach students about cyberattacks. The present study uses quantitative research techniques including (i) how to identify key requirements for the practical aspects of public service cybersecurity training and (ii) sampling to utilise international best practices from cybersecurity education and conceptual architectures from existing public service organisations. A schematic structure with a two-level practical training course is proposed. On the first level, the students learn about the defence mechanisms of their own info-communication devices and try to prevent attacks in a simulated environment. On the second level, the students apply protection strategies against cyberattacks in organisational infrastructure. Finally, a technical framework is defined to simulate cyberattacks against (a) personal devices and (b) a fictional organisational infrastructure. The specification of a public service cybersecurity training programme should not only focus on theoretical education but also provide practical knowledge to students. By simulating specific attacks, theoretical and practical knowledge can be combined. As a result, students will be able to recognise threats and potential risks from cyberspace.