Security and Defence Quarterly

1-20

Authors: Hrvoje Mataković, Ivana Cunjak Mataković

Objectives: Tourism has become one of the main economic sectors of the 21st century. Today, tourism is facing various security threats such as terrorism, crime and potential armed conflicts, and the most common security threat to tourism is crime. The aim of this paper is to analyse how crime affects security in tourism and to describe the consequences of crime for tourism. Methods: A descriptive method was used in this paper to explain the concept of security in tourism and to analyse the relationship between tourism and crime. The data was drawn from the scientific and professional literature and policy documents on this subject. Results: The impact of crime on tourism can be seen on two levels: the macro and micro levels. The impact of crime on the macro level refers to its effects on society in general, on the social community or tourist destination, and the impact of crime at the micro level refers to the effects of crime on individuals. The most significant impact of crime on a tourist destination is the negative image of the destination, resulting in reduced tourist demand. The impact of crime on the micro level is evident in the influence on the behaviour and attitudes of tourists, and their decision to visit or revisit a destination where criminal incidents happen. Conclusions: Crime can have a very negative impact on tourism and security in tourism can not be taken for granted, so it is necessary to make significant efforts to ensure a safe environment for tourists. In order to prevent crime and to create a safe environment for tourists, it is necessary to ensure the cooperation all stakeholders involved in tourism: the tourism industry, local community, national authorities, police and state agencies.

32-43

Authors: Dorota Domalewska

Objectives: The aim of this article is to discuss the role of social media platforms, Facebook and Twitter, during the floods that took place in Poland in May 2019. The following research questions guided the study: (1) How is social media used by different actors at various stages of the disaster management cycle? (2) To what extent were social networking sites used during the 2019 floods in Poland? Methods: The study employed social media analytic tools to analyze social media data published on Facebook and Twitter qualitatively and quantitatively in the period from 1 March to 10 June 2019. Results: Social Media is used during emergencies by various actors for different purposes: emergency services use it to broadcast weather alerts and situational updates; authorities communicate weather alerts and offer assistance; mass media outlets share up-to-date information; individual users connect and share their experiences of the disaster as well as express political views; organizations spread general comments, situational updates and political comments. Conclusions: Despite several drawbacks, such as the chaotic spread of messages, their unreliability and the politicization of the news- feed, social networking sites support disaster management. Therefore, they should be incorporated as an additional communication channel during emergencies.

57-71

Authors: Mateusz Maciąg

Objectives: The article explores combat related Private Military Companies (PMCs) that are authorised to engage in the forefront of the battlefield as dedicated force multipliers. Methods: To supplement empirical data with qualitative observation, the methodology applies the case study and observation method. Considering assistance in conflict termination as a dependent variable, the methodology evaluates the case study of Executive Outcomes in Sierra Leone and, to impose a framework for observation, deconstructs that case with seven independent variables: competence, effectiveness, flexibility, field cooperation with conventional forces, cost efficiency, impact on military and the state-to-PMC balance. Results: The methodology indicates what factors were prevalent in effective conflict management and what indicators entailed chal- lenges. The results advocate for the competence, flexibility, effectiveness and cooperation with armed forces to be deemed conclusive in positive PMC engagement, whereas the cost efficiency, impact on conventional military and the state-to-PMC balance require improvement. Conclusions: Since governments have continued to be hesitant (justified either by financial, geopolitical or social incen- tives) towards overseas military operations where asymmetric warfare is taking place, PMCs stepped in to fill the se- curity void. Therefore, this paper argues that PMCs are here to stay; however, the literature hasn’t rigorously ex- plored the subject matter to determine whether indicators of success and failure exist to evaluate the PMC outcome. This paper also precipitates natural outgrowth in the scholarship by composing the benchmark that synthesises relevant data.

3-33

Authors: Bert Chapman

Objectives: Examining analysis of Baltic security developments from U.S. government and military resources, scholarly journal articles, and multinational public policy research institute assessments. Methods: Analyzing content and rhetoric within these resources to learn how those producing these materials view Baltic security developments and their viewpoints on how the U.S. and its allies should respond to these developments focusing on increasing Russian regional assertiveness. Results: Provides interpretations of Baltic security developments, Russian Baltic policy, and U.S. and NATO responses ot these developments in materials produced by U.S. civilian and military policymakers and multinational scholarly analysis. Includes performance assessments of U.S. programs including the European Deterrence Initiative and potential Russian military activity in the Baltics as reflected in varying reports by the U.S. Government, military, and multinational public policy research institutions. Conclusions: Recommends U.S. and NATO countries recognize a new Cold War exists with a revisionist Russia. Advocates continuing NATO military exercise, upgrading civilian and military infrastructure protection, and enhancing U.S. and allied preparedness. Urges ongoing and candid dialogue between NATO and Russia to keep this situation from erupting into war. Insists the U.S. and its allies adroitly respond to Russian attempts to influence and manipulate public opinion toward Moscow. Expresses concern that U.S. partisan division over 2016 Russian interference in U.S. presidential election makes achieving greater Baltic policy cohesion difficult. Advocates warning Russia of devastating consequences of attempts to militarily invade or subvert Baltic countries.

51-66

Authors: Daniel Michalski, Adam Radomyski

Objectives: The authors determined the following aim of this article: identifying threats generated by air terrorism as well as characterizing the forms, methods, and manners. Methods: Authors used theoretical methods of research. The article presents research findings with regard to the organization and operation of security systems in civil air transport. At the article, the authors focused on air terrorism and security system in the airport. Results: The presented results of the study are not limited only to the theoretical aspects of terrorism. Authors also characterize organizational and technical undertakings that have already been implemented into security systems in aviation by national and intergovernmental institutions, responsible for its protection. Conclusions: Regardless of the form of air terrorism and applied means, an important issue is a fact that every attempt to intercept an aerial asset is attractive for terrorists, due to the fact that each time it causes not only damage or destruction of the machine itself and the death of passengers, but it is also a real threat to airport infrastructure, installations and urban residents. In addition, the events are accompanied by high-profile media coverage.

98-121

Authors: Martins Hirss

Objectives: U.S. foreign policy towards Russia is of the utmost importance for the national security of the countries on the NATO eastern flank. Grand strategies are among the analytical concepts for classification and analysis of U.S. actions in the international arena. This paper uses grand strategy classification framework to classify and analyse U.S. strategy towards Russia from 2001 to 2017. Methods: 36 speeches about Russia by U.S. Presidents George Bush and Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden from 2001 to 2017 were used in content analysis. U.S. grand strategy classification framework was used as the tool for coding and classifying different foreign policy elements within these speeches to identify different approaches towards Russia. Results: The content analysis allowed to identify nine stages in U.S. policy towards Russia from 2001 to 2017. The most significant shift during this period was in 2014 when after Russia’s aggression in Ukraine U.S. strategy towards Russia shifted from liberal internationalism towards primacy. Conclusions: Ideas of liberal internationalist and increasingly primacist grand strategies do influence U.S. foreign policy towards Russia. The grand strategy classification framework offers a valuable tool for analyzing, classifying and identifying different foreign policy stages in U.S foreign policy towards Russia.

143-161

Authors: Magdalena Markiewicz

OBJECTIVES: The research objective of the paper is to analyse the recent, ever more pronounced shifts and changes in security dynamics between China and its “Wests”. METHODS: The methods used in the study consist of in-depth going qualitative research and analysis of Western journals as well as an investigation and translation of primary Chinese sources. RESULTS: Each cooperation effort and security partnership between China and the analysed partners means that the defence capabilities of one player will affect those of the other. This is a matter of concern for those who are currently in a position that relies on the import of military and intelligence equipment from stronger actors, as such a relationship may provide easier access and leverage for giants such as China to influence their domestic foreign policy and security agendas. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study shed light on the on-going relevance of the question: is it possible to find space in which actors can achieve their own security objectives that is beneficial for the development of their defence industries without challenging the foreign policies of one another? Can competition between China and the actors it interacts with be conducted primarily in the political and economic field, with security relations only focusing on peaceful imports and exports instead of an arms race? One may only speculate.

3-14

Authors: Dorota Domalewska, Marzena Żakowska

Globalization, open borders and population movements, especially from war torn countries, have brought a new set of chances and challenges to every modern state. Since its accession to the European Union in 2004, Poland has been experiencing a steady transformation from a country producing emigrants to a destination country for a growing number of immigrants. The aim of the article is to discuss the impact of immigration on policymaking at the national level with emphasis on the legal status of immigrants and integration policy issues. Furthermore, the paper aims to initiate scientific discussion on migration integration policy and a complex system of migration policy and management. The study uses critical analysis of secondary sources: literature and sectoral policies in areas such as the labour market, education, and welfare pointing out benefits offered to immigrants. The analysis presents immigration integration policies and practices adopted and implemented in Poland. The research leads to the conclusion that the number of immigrants in Poland will significantly increase by 2030. Therefore, it is urgent to develop comprehensive migration management system in Poland, which will regulate the status of immigrants paying close attention to resolving integration policy issues.

37-54

Authors: Wojciech Robert Więcek

Undertaking to determine scientifically substantiated conditions for the functioning of destabilising forces and methods for countering them in contemporary operations fits in the broad scope of security. This paper reports the results of the study that employed survey methodology to investigate the matter of destabilising forces in order to provide the contribution to the current body of literature in the field. Recently published scientific and non-scientific studies in Polish and English on destabilising forces, despite the semantic differences, refer to a large extent to the problem of acting and combating such groups. The paper puts forward a series of conclusions and proposals with the intention of inspiring the critical evaluation and to encourage substantive polemics in the pages of specialist scientific periodicals. This material may serve as the basis for further detailed research into destabilising forces – the subject that is not only a pressing current issue, but above all a prospective area for research as part of the security sciences.

70-85

Authors: Mateusz Kuczabski

Weapons of mass destruction pose a threat that all health care institutions should be prepared for. Every health care centre can be an essential part of the joint system of response when a critical situation occurs. Although, since 1945, no nuclear weapon has been employed in any armed conflict, cases of both chemical and radiological weapon use have been reported. Taking into account the analysts’ opinion that the 21st century has begun a super-terrorism era (Alexander and Hoenig 2001, p. 7) and, hence, the increased interest of terrorist organisations in acquiring mass destruction weapons, it is difficult to point out the location of a possible attack. A terrorist attack with the use of weapons of mass destruction may happen in any place, both urban and rural. According to the strategy adopted in the event of a critical situation resulting from such attack, the heavily injured should be transported to hospitals located in the closest location of the incident at the proper stage of evacuation. The problem is, however, to prepare a sufficient number of places for all victims of an attack and to provide them with professional medical care. In this context, it seems justified to consider the role and capabilities of the basic (primary) health care, as the most popular element of the health care system that has the resources to operate in a critical situation, and as the institution protecting citizens’ lives and health, i.e. the national safety attributes.

99-117

Authors: Marek Żyła

From the geopolitical point of view, the Kaliningrad Oblast, due to its exclave location, has become an area of strategic importance. Its strategic nature has been steadily increasing with the successive enlargements of the European Union and NATO. The geographical location and the army stationed in the area allow Moscow to control the situation in the Baltic Sea basin. This makes it possible, through the Euro-Atlantic location of most countries in the region, to influence European policies. In this way, Russia is playing a leading role in this part of the continent. From the point of view of the countries within the region, it is a global military power and a regional superpower. In this context, Kaliningrad exclave increasingly more frequently serves as a security policy tool. It is part of the ongoing threat to the Baltic States and Poland. Demilitarisation of the region, which is periodically demanded by neighbouring countries, is impossible for several reasons. The armed forces stationed there are a counterbalance to the expanding North Atlantic Treaty Organisation from Russia’s point of view. They serve to protect national interests and secure the affairs of the Russian and Russian-speaking diasporas in the immediate vicinity. They protect the Russian economic zone and access to the resources of the Baltic Sea. Moreover, the military potential located in the Kaliningrad Oblast, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, has been a guarantee of continuity of Potsdam’s border solutions.

5-20

Authors: Miroslav Mitrovic

Globalisation is a phenomenon which influences every aspect of contemporary life. Neo- liberal ideas lead to the multifunctional interdependence of geopolitics, the political economy, international relations, security, and defence issues. In the globalised world, many issues can be raised: Where are the roots of modern conflict? Who are the stakeholders in international relations? What are the dominant forms of contemporary conflicts? Do the forms of collective security fulfill the legitimacy of objectivity? What are the new challenges for modern defence science? Through the multidisciplinary approach, based on academic literature, as well scholars research papers, this work aims to contribute to the clarifying a rational approach to modern defence science in the contemporary, global security environment.

51-64

Authors: Heikki Lantto, Bernt Åkesson, Marko Suojanen, Topi Tuukkanen, Simo Huopio, Juha-Pekka Nikkarila, Mari Ristolainen

Based on a review of different analytical frameworks, it is suggested to run a table top cyber wargame when trying to analyse the effects of closed national networks being imposed in the near future. The scope of the wargame is to extract results to show how the resilience of an open national network differs from a closed national network. It is self-evident that the formation process of resilience is different between the diverse systems. The proposed wargame is a two-sided cyber table top wargame. The wargame is based on at least two blue teams, at least one red team and a control team (namely a white team). One blue team is located in the closed national networks and its system relies on closed national network infrastructure. The other blue team operates its system within open network society. By designing, constructing and executing the proposed cyber wargame we argue it is possible to find these diff erences and similarities as well. Current research improves cyber situation awareness and proposes a direction to be followed when trying to understand the changing circumstances of the cyber space. It also suggests how the research resources could be directed when trying to improve the situation awareness of the closing process.

87-104

Authors: Harry J. Kowal

The Royal Military College of Canada (RMC) has a very proud history of producing quality officers for over 140 years, delivering excellence in education, research and military training that is responsive to the needs of Canada, the Defence community and the ever-changing global security environment. RMC is unique as it is a military unit that is also a recognized university. The primary mission of RMC is to support the Regular Officer Training Plan (ROTP) by educating, developing and inspiring bilingual and fit, ethical leaders to serve the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) and Canada with distinction. Since RMC opened its doors in 1876 to the fi rst 18 cadets, there have been a number of studies that have examined the RMC program and that have been the catalyst for positive change. T ese pivotal moments in history have been indispensable for RMC to remain relevant and continually improve. Of late, there has been a significant amount of attention placed on RMC again, defi ning another pivotal moment in RMC’s history that has become the catalyst for change once again. In October 2016, the Chief of the Defence Staff (CDS), General Jonathan Vance, initiated a Special Staff Assistance Visit (SSAV) to ensure the high standards expected of RMC are upheld and the Auditor General (AG) of Canada, Mr. Michael Ferguson, completed an audit of the ROTP at RMC, the results of which were presented to Parliament in November 2017. Many changes are already in place, but there is more work to do. With a look at governance, the four-pillar program and the call for change, this paper outlines what steps RMC has and will be taken to posture this ‘university with a difference’ for success for years to come.

123-154

Authors: Lúcio Agostinho Barreiros dos Santos, Nuno Alberto Rodrigues Santos Loureiro, Joaquim Manuel Martins do Vale Lima, José Augusto de Sousa Silveira, Rui José da Silva Grilo

The study focuses on the use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in Military Higher Education, delimited to the present moment and to the current professors and students of the Military University Institute. This study aims to analyse the relationship between ICT and teaching and learning methodologies in the context of professional military education, with emphasis on the concept of innovation in the classroom, on teaching and learning styles and on the role of ICTs in learning. The study is based on a mixed research strategy combining deductive and inductive approaches, materialized in a case study, with data collected through questionnaires, interviews and documentary analysis. This article focuses on the conceptual framework and its interconnection with the methodological strategy for the empirical study. The results presented refer to the pilot validation test of the data collection instruments and indicate that, in general, students and teachers share the same teaching-learning styles and both students and teachers show a good propensity to use ICT in the classroom.

177-201

Authors: Odysseus Katsaitis, Konstantine Kondylis, George A. Zombanakis

The paper aims to tackle a controversial issue, namely the anticipated developments regarding defence expenditure once the Greek economy returns to growth. Such a comeback is expected to occur following a prolonged recessionary period during which defence spending cuts were a top priority, as recommended by the IMF, the ECB and the EC, members of the so-called “Troika”. The paper uses both conventional econometrics as well as neural networks to consider and evaluate the hierarchy’s ordering of the determinants used in such a demand for defence expenditure based on their explanatory power. While the role of property resources is certainly pronounced, as expected, human resources variables also seem to be able to explain defence spending developments, especially in the recent past. A forecasting investigation based on this background points to a number of interesting conclusions on the anticipated developments concerning defence spending in the future as well as on the determinants of such developments which might represent a threat to NATO cohesion.

3-22

Authors: Leszek Elak, Zdzisław Śliwa

The term ‘hybrid warfare’ proved to be very popular among academics, military thinkers and professionals leading to a variety of definitions and approaches. It was linked with the new generation concept popularised by Russian military thought. The essence of the hybridity is not new, as using a combination of military and non-military instruments is as old as mankind and is recognised but interpreted differently. The paper examines both the concept and its implementation based on case studies and theoretical considerations. It debates possible ways of using it to confront targeted nations by a combination of a variety of tools and approaches. The term ‘hybrid’, used in connotation with military domain, proved to be very popular at the beginning of the current century. It is linked with using other than military tools in combination with military pressure to influence the security situation in other opposing nations. It is based on the valid assumption that it is not necessary to use combat power in a globalised world to impact on the internal situation of other nations, which could lead to their partial or complete subordination. It was closely related to Russian operations in Georgia and later in Ukraine by the utilisation of asymmetric methods to subordinate Crimea without conducting large-scale military operations. Michael Kofman stated that just “in two short years, the word has mutated from describing how Moscow was fighting its war in Ukraine incorporating all the various elements of Russian influence and national power. The term continues to evolve, spawning iterations like ‘multi-vector hybrid warfare’ in Europe. Hybrid warfare has become the Frankenstein of the field of Russia military analysis; it has taken on a life of its own and there is no obvious way to contain it” (Kofman 2016). Those two wars in 2008 and 2014 proved that approaches to warfare are evolving when compared to the regime change in Iraq when a large-scale multinational force was used or the supporting of rebels in Libya with NATO’s air power. Therefore, “hybrid threats incorporate a full range of modes of warfare, including conventional capabilities, irregular tactics and formations, terrorist acts that include indiscriminate violence and coercion, and criminal disorder. These multi-modal activities can be conducted by separate units, or even by the same unit, but are generally operationally and tactically directed and coordinated within the main battlespace to achieve synergistic effects in the physical and psychological dimensions of conflict” (Hoffman 2009, p. 36). The ‘hybrid warfare’ concept supported by new technologies and opportunities has been evolving over the centuries challenging contemporary democracies and threatening them via evolving attacking options. This is a tool exploited by some nations, illegal organisations, terrorist groups etc. as they do not have any moral and legal impediments stopping them. Constant study of interstate conflicts is required to define multidimensional threats allowing the creation of comprehensive capabilities to face them. The military sphere is just one of many fields a country or an organisation must further and purposely develop to preserve independence. European security is currently very complex in both the south and east part of the continent. It has been necessary to confront a non-military influx of displaced persons and migrants coming from regions affected by conflicts that may lead to losing full control over state borders and disorganisation of internal security systems and partial breakdown of the economic system. In the East, there is a threat of military conflict to be preceded by other means. In relation to the growing threat, armed forces have already been deployed in problematic regions in the south and east of Europe to perform a series of tasks in support of civilian law enforcement entities. Securing state borders, protection of the population, ensuring the functioning of public administration, protection of important infrastructure and performance of tasks for extra-military support of armed forces are the priorities of such a non-military crisis. In Eastern Europe, NATO battle groups have been deployed to enhance security, to show decisiveness and to deter any aggression against member states. The aim of the paper is to show the complexity of modern security structure that is facing ‘hybrid’ challenges. It will present the overall concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ as defined by selected nations and organisations and possible ways of opposing the type of non-military pressure that could lead to an armed conflict. The assessment is that there is strong focus on debates related to terminology, definitions and overall discussion but actions are not implemented by prepared nations to face ‘hybrid’ confrontation using all the available instruments of power in an orchestrated way. This is bringing up such basic questions as: How do we understand ‘hybrid warfare’ in a national context? What are the major vulnerabilities of the national security system? and Are national security related entities prepared to face threats in a coordinated and organised way?

48-62

Authors: Agostino Massa

The location and building of big hazardous infrastructures is a typical feature of the modernization process, in all countries and epochs. Since they are usually useful for a large region but their impact is very localized, the people living around the places where these facilities are active, or where their building is planned, very often organize and perform protest activities against them. Starting from the presentation of recent data about these issues in Italy, considered as a good example of a liberal democracy country, the article is set to discuss their social and political consequences, focusing in particular on the so-called “NIMBY syndrome”, its development and the strategies elaborated by public and private actors to cope with it.

79-96

Authors: Artur Kuptel

Development of systems with an evolving level of autonomy is among the most controversial and yet promising aspects of military forces’ modernisation. The application of quasi- artificial intelligence in combat machines opens a new uncharted area of possibilities. In essence, these modifications aim to reduce the extent of human interference in the functioning of unmanned systems virtually to none. The potential risks are explored in dangerous scenarios, which consider that apart from offering far-reaching advantages of using platforms with autonomic capabilities, they can be used against humanity. These scenarios assume a pivotal role in forecasting possible directions for development of the armed forces. This paper attempts to determine the essence of combat systems autonomy while focusing on a few of the most sensitive issues. For a transparent and credible debate on combat systems autonomy, it is adviseable that no ambiguity is present in terminological, ethical, legal and technological complexities, whose misinterpretation may become a source of unnecessary understatements or even lead to distortion of the debate.

126-143

Authors: Kamil Kuć, Walentyna Trzcińska

Conflicts in the 21st century have forced qualitative changes in the way of training missionary personnel. Police forces are currently used in various joint operations, which include, among others, elements of the fight against terrorism, ensuring the security of civilians and training of security forces. New types of operations require corrected preparation systems. This article analyses the previous way of preparing such units as Individual Police Officers, Specialized Police Teams, Formed Police Units, as well as the issue related to the training modification proposal, and one of them is the implementation of the virtual game “Gaming for Peace” as a supplement to the training gap through modern and more effective training.