Security and Defence Quarterly

5-37

Authors: Marcin Urbański, Karol Dołęga

The catalyst for the initiation of regional integration processes in Central and Eastern Europe was the erosion of the system of real socialism. The security vacuum created after the collapse of the Soviet Union allowed the countries of the region to establish low institutionalised cooperation towards integration with NATO and the European Union - the two basic pillars of the Western security system. Apart from presenting the process of the quadrilateral cooperation of Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary for independence from the Soviet Union and then the Russian Federation, and integration with NATO and the EU, the authors also focus on the jointactions of the Visegrad Group after joining Western structures. A particularly important area of analysis is military cooperation and its tangible consequences - closer cooperation between the Central European region and, consequently, increasing the level of security

56-77

Authors: Marek Ilnicki

This article analyses the causes of Russia’s military intervention in Syria as well as the main motives behind its unanticipated decision to get involved. Since the launch of the military operations (i.e. since 30th September, 2015), European and American experts have speculated a lot on the causes and aims of the Russian involvement. This article takes into consideration only the most likely and well-grounded reasons behind Russia’s military operation. While neither of them precludes or contradicts the others, an attempt has been made to narrow down the list to the key determinants, considering the high costs of the operation and the risks involved. Getting an insight into the underlying reasons can provide reasonable grounds on which to forecast possible scenarios for Syria and offer “political” approaches to settling the conflicts in the Near East. This article argues in favour of the geopolitical nature of the motives behind the military operation in Syria, and it provides a logical rationale for Russia’s striving to regain the position of a world power with a say in resolving vital conflicts in the region and, at the same time, to draw global attention away from the Crimean Crisis and from the failure of the Kremlin’s policy in Ukraine, and, last but not least, to overcome its international isolation following the annexation of Crimea.

107-124

Authors: Jerzy Kozioł

The problems related to the safety of human life are one of the most actual and crucial topics of the modern world. In an era of globalisation and substantially complicated conditions of social life, every human being needs to make a choice, which enables him or her to increase the possibilities of development and, at the same time, to ensure the safety of his or her own life as well other people’s lives. Taking into account the technological and industrial development, scientists intend to decrease the level of risks in work processes. No matter the efforts, these risks cannot be completely eliminated. Thanks to certain knowledge, a human being is able to make a rational decision in an emergency with an accepted level of risk. As the experience shows, the main reasons of such emergencies are people themselves.

5-16

Authors: Robert Kupiecki

In August 2015, I was approached by the Prague Security Studies Institute, to share my scholarly and practitioner’s perspective on the impact the war in Ukraine has had on Polish defence, and Poland’s expectations concerning military cooperation within the so called Visegrad Group nations (V-4: Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary). It has been part of a broader international scholarly research project conducted by the Institute. Beyond the net value of the project itself, all issues raised in the questionnaire, I consider relevant for understanding the situation regarding the region’s defence following Russian aggression in the Ukraine. They are also useful in the academic field for sharing some hard data and analysis regarding Poland, and V-4 defence

43-68

Authors: Liliana Brožič

Public confidence in the armed forces as a national institution is of great significance and directly related to the conditions for its operation and, thus, the functioning of the state. Both wish to operate openly, transparently and in cooperation with civic society. The armed forces as a social institution can be maintained only if they fulfil the public’s imperatives. In terms of the public and the media, a question arises regarding the balance between social and functional imperatives, the latter representing a fundamental mission of the armed forces. We wanted to know what public relations are like in the case of the Slovenian Armed Forces; how they are seen by internal and external stakeholders. Among the latter, we focused on the general public’s opinion, the opinion of media representatives and the opinion of experts from academia. The findings derived from various projects in the period between 2010 and 2013 were the basis for determining orientations for the future

81-99

Authors: Adam Radomyski, Witold Materak

The contents of this article refer to theoretical considerations that concern the forecasting of strategic changes in the state security system, including the events taking place in its macroeconomic environment. In this regard, the authors have emphasised the complexity of modifications to the state security system, which should take into account not only the resources, but also changes in various spheres of its macroeconomic environment. The authors draw attention to the fact that, in practice, in the functioning of the state security system, any change of strategic (long-term) plans and their rational implementation requires the development of future scenarios. Their development allows for early identification of future threats to national security that might arise with changes in economic, political, technical, social and international spheres or be consequential. It is undoubtedly a very complex process requiring, first and foremost, a very good knowledge of the basic principles of strategic management, understanding the essence of national security and the ability to perceive opportunities and risks in turbulent environments. In this respect, the key importance is growing strategic thinking ability, which is just as important for a small country, as well as global hegemony.

130-148

Authors: Kalin Gradev

The analysis of different military theories shows that the notions of “instantaneity” and “surprise” are frequently used as synonyms. Thus, in certain periods of the development of military science, in the works of different military analysts, as well as in the regulating documents, as principles of war we can encounter, at times, the term “instantaneity” and, at times, the term “surprise”. One question arises: “Should these two terms be considered identical, bearing in mind their semantical proximity, or is it necessary to seek differences in their essence and purpose in military science?”

5-21

Authors: Johannes Göllner, Joachim Klerx, Klaus Mak

Existing foresight studies produce expectations regarding mid-term and long-term expectations about the future. In particular, in the cyber domain, these expectations tend to change accidently, caused by disruptive events. For reliable long-term strategic planning it is necessary to understand the dynamics of these changes. Our horizon scanning method is developed to address social needs, as well as scientific capabilities and technical solutions and will produce reliable knowledge about analysing weak signals for threats, disruptive events and long-term trends. Transparent, public knowledge about long-term trends is very important for the efficiency of each strategic long term planning activity in all supply chain networks and in relation to domain cyber space. In the last few decades, the ICT infrastructure did become ubiquitous for all supply chain networks, for all critical infrastructures and, in particular, for knowledge management in these domains. Each stakeholder has their own expectations about future trends and behaves in accordance with these expectations. Misleading expectations can cause flawed investments and political strategies. This publication will present a method for semi-automatic knowledge creation and sharing to increase knowledge about future developments and future needs in the system. This knowledge can support long term capability planning, research agenda setting, innovation management and strategic long term planning in cyber security. However, it is in the core of foresight not to predict the future of cyber security, but to build it. Thus, knowledge development and horizon scanning are support actions for strategic planning activities.

39-48

Authors: Vladimír Golik, Miroslav Krč

The aim of this article is to enrich discussions on possible usage of resource accounting for the purpose of defence resource management. The article discusses the issues of implementation and benefits of RAB – an accounting system which was implemented in British army few years back. Discussing this, the article follows the previous research and publication activities done by researchers from Univerzita obrany in Brno (Czech Republic) who deal with rationalization of resource management in defence. The main attention of the article is paid to the gradual implementation of the new accounting system. The following lines shortly describe interconnection and hierarchy of individual conceptual and strategic measures, the fulfilment of which has finally led to the full implementation of resource accounting in the British defence sector. Having done this, the long-term goal was finally achieved. The article also contains brief summary of benefits which this system brings to the British army and emphasizes the importance of this accounting concept. For the purpose of this article, descriptive method is mostly used.

71-95

Authors: Miroslav Krč

The article describes the development of the economics of defence in Czechoslovakia and the Czech Republic between the Marxist paradigm background and the concept of defence economics in developed countries. New research and development was carried out after the collapse of bipolarity. It shows the close cooperation between Czech and Polish economists. After 2007, attention is focused on examining the microeconomic aspects of defence and defence policy as part of economic policy and the role of military peacekeeping missions in national economic policy and the position and role of Armed Forces’ foreign missions in national economic policy.

107-128

Authors: Marta Osypowicz

Crisis response operations (CROs) become the universal means used to solve a crisis situation. Their goal is preventing a potential conflict, responding and removing the effects of conflict and restoring pre-crisis situations. A wide range of these operations can be used in response to various crisis situations: natural disasters or armed conflicts. All of these factors and their flexibility speak for their effectiveness. Therefore, the number of publications about CROs is still increasing. Usually, the experts try to establish why operations were successful or failed but don’t explain how an assessment was accomplished. The observed properties of the theory indicate the biggest gaps in the evaluation of CROs. Noticing a gap led the author to conduct research on the evaluation of the CROs, some of which are presented in this article.

5-14

Authors: Robert Kupiecki

The NATO defence planning process (NDPP) is the cornerstone of Allied collective defence, and one of the few politically-guided military instruments translating common interests and agreed objectives into a concrete defence posture. The development of forces and capabilities to NATO’s requirements has been the imperative for all Allies since 1949. But, despite the obvious and vital link between articles 3 (self defence) and 5 (collective defence) of the Washington Treaty, NATO members have always had problems with meeting budgetary thresholds and military planning goals. Thus, structurally, military planning has been constantly burdened with unfulfilled promises. To the defence of this recurring fact, one may add that, beyond the described pattern of the allies’ behaviour, it is also a natural problem of national and collective defence planning. Long-term goals, mid, and short-term expected deliverables, confronted with a dynamic external and domestic strategic context, always produce a need to correct inputs (action) and outputs (results) and, thus, narrows the gap between expectations formulated in different situations and defence postures reflecting the current situation.

29-36

Authors: Josef Krahulec, Miroslav Jurenka

The article deals with issues of the societal security, especially with the significant process Business Impact Analysis (BIA). It is the process of analysing the organization’s activities and impacts that may be caused by a disruption.

65-85

Authors: Eberhard Birk, Gerhard P. Groß

The Third Reich was geared towards war, exactly as the German Empire was. The period from 30 January 1933 to the beginning of World War II was marked by preparations for war.1) In this process, two ideological fundamental principles played a particular role: the first principle was about the drawing of – supposed – lessons from the ‘stab-in-the-back-legend’.

107-114

Authors: Marcin Kupiecki

“The fight against terrorism is also a fight for the rights and dignity of women”, claimed Laura Bush in her radio address in the first few months following the 11 September 2001 attack on the World Trade Center in New York City. Herunderstanding of the issue of female involvement in terrorism, whether in active warfare or otherwise, although noble, showcased a limited and primitive outlook on the situation. This essay will show that the incorporation of intersectionality into feminist thought can enrich and deepen our understanding of both feminism and terrorism studies. Firstly, it will define intersectionality and show the ways it fits into feminist political theory by looking at its origins and advantages. Later, it will move into a discussion of the different ways in which women and terrorism converge and how intersectionality can help us broaden our understanding of those fields of study

139-155

Authors: Slobodan Curcija

The Resolute Support Mission (RS) is the extension to the completion of ISAF operations. It is expected to start on 1 January 2015. NATO member states as well as troop contributing nations’ units are entering a completely different situation compared to the current course of the mission. The RS mission is based on different assumptions including the drastic scaling down of the military presence in the area of operation. The main focus is shifting from combat operations to training, advice and assistance to the Afghan National Security Forces. Also, a very important role will begiven to advisory and assistance support for the Afghan Security Institutions, primarily at the ministerial level in the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Interior and the National Directorate of Security. Logistics capability to support this type of military operation is fundamental for ensuring the success of the mission. Clear roles for all participants in the supply chain will require not only the necessary international support, but also the internal logistical connection. The classical military logistical support will be replaced by some, so far, less applied models. Furthermore, the plan is to increase the use of multinational logistics agreements,the joint logistics support group, commercial contracts and the support capabilities of the host nation. The logistics organisation designed in this way will represent a major challenge for its implementation in practice.