Security and Defence Quarterly

5-21

Authors: Johannes Göllner, Joachim Klerx, Klaus Mak

Existing foresight studies produce expectations regarding mid-term and long-term expectations about the future. In particular, in the cyber domain, these expectations tend to change accidently, caused by disruptive events. For reliable long-term strategic planning it is necessary to understand the dynamics of these changes. Our horizon scanning method is developed to address social needs, as well as scientific capabilities and technical solutions and will produce reliable knowledge about analysing weak signals for threats, disruptive events and long-term trends. Transparent, public knowledge about long-term trends is very important for the efficiency of each strategic long term planning activity in all supply chain networks and in relation to domain cyber space. In the last few decades, the ICT infrastructure did become ubiquitous for all supply chain networks, for all critical infrastructures and, in particular, for knowledge management in these domains. Each stakeholder has their own expectations about future trends and behaves in accordance with these expectations. Misleading expectations can cause flawed investments and political strategies. This publication will present a method for semi-automatic knowledge creation and sharing to increase knowledge about future developments and future needs in the system. This knowledge can support long term capability planning, research agenda setting, innovation management and strategic long term planning in cyber security. However, it is in the core of foresight not to predict the future of cyber security, but to build it. Thus, knowledge development and horizon scanning are support actions for strategic planning activities.

39-48

Authors: Vladimír Golik, Miroslav Krč

The aim of this article is to enrich discussions on possible usage of resource accounting for the purpose of defence resource management. The article discusses the issues of implementation and benefits of RAB – an accounting system which was implemented in British army few years back. Discussing this, the article follows the previous research and publication activities done by researchers from Univerzita obrany in Brno (Czech Republic) who deal with rationalization of resource management in defence. The main attention of the article is paid to the gradual implementation of the new accounting system. The following lines shortly describe interconnection and hierarchy of individual conceptual and strategic measures, the fulfilment of which has finally led to the full implementation of resource accounting in the British defence sector. Having done this, the long-term goal was finally achieved. The article also contains brief summary of benefits which this system brings to the British army and emphasizes the importance of this accounting concept. For the purpose of this article, descriptive method is mostly used.

71-95

Authors: Miroslav Krč

The article describes the development of the economics of defence in Czechoslovakia and the Czech Republic between the Marxist paradigm background and the concept of defence economics in developed countries. New research and development was carried out after the collapse of bipolarity. It shows the close cooperation between Czech and Polish economists. After 2007, attention is focused on examining the microeconomic aspects of defence and defence policy as part of economic policy and the role of military peacekeeping missions in national economic policy and the position and role of Armed Forces’ foreign missions in national economic policy.

107-128

Authors: Marta Osypowicz

Crisis response operations (CROs) become the universal means used to solve a crisis situation. Their goal is preventing a potential conflict, responding and removing the effects of conflict and restoring pre-crisis situations. A wide range of these operations can be used in response to various crisis situations: natural disasters or armed conflicts. All of these factors and their flexibility speak for their effectiveness. Therefore, the number of publications about CROs is still increasing. Usually, the experts try to establish why operations were successful or failed but don’t explain how an assessment was accomplished. The observed properties of the theory indicate the biggest gaps in the evaluation of CROs. Noticing a gap led the author to conduct research on the evaluation of the CROs, some of which are presented in this article.