Security and Defence Quarterly

3-14

Authors: Nikolay Todorov Dolchinkov

It is known that everything on our planet is subjected to constant exposure from the natural and anthropogenic, earth and space SIR, and is situated in conditions created by natural and technical radioactive Backlight. The ionizing radiations accompany planet life in its diff erent manifestations of all phases of the evolution. The National Automated System for continuous monitoring of the radiation background has 26 local monitoring stations (LMS) covering the whole country, with greater density around NPP ‘Kozloduy’. Radiometric measurements in real conditions, sampling, and analysis are carried out by the Executive Environment Agency (EEA) at the MoEW and radiological control laboratories. A special place in radiation safety is taken by timely detection of radioactive waste and materials that appear in one way or another in the environment.

32-49

Authors: Juha-Matti Lehtonen

EU Defence Ministers have adopted a joint Strategy on Defence Research & Technology (R&T) that includes a 2 % goal for defence R&T expenditure. Th is paper discusses the feasibility of such a goal for a small country, including the motivations for undertaking defence R&T work in small countries, and asks are they diff erent from the large countries? New and improved weapons systems that create a technological advantage in the battlefi eld are grounded on research in technology. However, as capability models demonstrate, there are also other aspects of military capability than the materiel which can therefore be a topic for research. Th rough reviewing a selection of strategy documents from large and small European countries, the fact that only large countries have fi nancial possibilities for major weapons system development and production is highlighted, while in small countries, this link from R&T through development to production and operation is broken. Both defence research and defence industrial base fi gures support this view. Small countries may still have a number of other reasons to engage in R&T in either technology or other areas, but these appear not to be able to suffi ciently motivate R&T expenditure even close to the 2% level.

79-97

Authors: Sergiy Orel

The methodology of environmental risk is becoming more common to assess the impact of chemical pollution on human beings and the environment, providing information for making environmental remediation decisions. This article examines the impact on human health chemicals that penetrated into river water as a result of an accident at a military ammunition depot. The river is the source of drinking water for the population. Assessing the impact of chemicals on the health of adults, adolescents and children is carried out in stages (tiers), from simple to complex. Assessment is carried out both for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances. The first tier is executed by a deterministic method – a method in which all biological, chemical, physical, and environmental parameters are assumed to be constant and can be accurately specified. Deterministic methods commonly apply to either a “most likely” value for a parameter, or a conservative value. When the obtained values are insufficient for making the decision, the second tier of a risk assessment begins. The values in this case have the form of probability distributions that determine their variability. Processing the risk model with the help of the one-dimensional Monte Carlo method gives more accurate data in the form of risk distribution. However, the method does not consider the lack of knowledge about the values of input variables, so, at the third tier of a risk assessment, the two-dimensional Monte Carlo method is used. In this case, the specifi ed values of risk look like trend charts and indicate the limits of probability of risk for a certain percentage of the population.