Assessment procedure for sea level rise economic damage due to climate change in agricultural land use:case study in nam dinh province
Authors: Van Doanh Vu*, Ha Phong Doan, Thi Thu Trang Bui
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Nam Dinh province is located in the Red river delta with a relatively flat terrain. The North East of Nam Dinh is bordered by the Red river and the southwest by the Day river and has a coastline of approximately 80 km. Given the geographical location, Nam Dinh has favourable conditions for agricultural and aquaculture production. Climate change creates a large number of potential risks for Nam Dinh. This includes sea level rise, typhoons, flood tide, etc. According to the climate change and sea level rise scenario in 2016, if the sea level rises by 100 cm, the flood risk area in coastal districts such as Hai Hau would be 67.34%, Giao Thuy 64.6%, Nghia Hung 81.61% and Xuan Truong 59.3% . According to the monitoring data from Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change (IMHEN), the salinity intrusion area due to sea level rise is likely to widen, which degrades and affects the area of the mangrove ecosystem . In addition, the sea level rise may reduce the resilience of irrigation system due to the changes in estuarine and coastal dynamics such as water levels, flows, waves, etc. Through synthesising the local and international guidelines and in combination with expert consultation and field surveys, this paper develops an assessment procedure for sea level rise that causes economic damage to agricultural land use in order to quantify the impact of sea level rise in 4 coastal districts of Xuan Truong, Giao Thuy, Hai Hau and Nghia Hung in Nam Dinh province.