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The Heterogeneity and Evolution of Settlement in Russia from the 19th to the 21st centuries
Authors: Michel I. Ojovan, Victor L. Shabanov, Natalia V. Muller, Mikhail B. Loshchinin
Number of views: 8
Begun in 2010, the study of the nonhomogeneity and evolution of modern settlements was continued through the use of high-resolution density methods, as well as by expanding the spatial and temporal coverage of settlements in Saratov and Novosibirsk oblasts of Russia, as well as in Poltava oblast of Ukraine according to data from the period 2010-2001 in a comparison with provinces of the Russian Empire which are corresponding to them according to information from 1859. The previously discovered phenomena of rapidly decreasing density of villages and the power-law distribution of cities, as well as the fall of density, cut by separated peaks at the beginning of power-law trend of modern cities, were confirmed.
An exponential decline in the density of villages was discovered in statistics of provinces and oblasts. A huge dome of farmsteads with an exponentially decreasing density was discovered in the statistics of Poltava province, as well as a rough peak in the density of farmsteads in the statistics of Saratov province, but no signs of an increase in the density of farmsteads were found in the statistics of Tomsk province. The urban power-law trend extrapolated to the left and up pierces the dome of villages on the graphs of Tomsk and Saratov provinces, but passes above the dome of villages on the graphs of the oblasts, which is interpreted as the loss of the organic relation of modern cities with villages due to the depletion of internal migration of the population from villages to cities.
A formula is derived and an evaluation of the flow of rural migration is given. Power-law distributions of cities have an exponent of about minus 2.3 and start from settlements of about 1,200 inhabitants in Tomsk province and over 7 thousand ones in Saratov province. The settlements of Poltava province did not form a power-law distribution of their cities, and the line of cities distribution is only a continuation of the exponentially decreasing density of large villages. In addition to the fall of density in the interval of the smallest cities, the power-law distributions of medium-sized and large modern cities demonstrate two intervals with different exponents: first, the index is noticeably less than minus 2, and then noticeably more than minus 2.
Specific patterns of depopulation or population growth were discovered in the three named urban intervals and an analytical model of variation in the indexes was proposed based on the hypothesis of a two-phase composition of the hierarchy. It is shown theoretically that the power-law distribution of cities with an index of minus 2 can arise due to the urban building mission of business and be supported by the flow of rural migrants. The mutual independence of farmsteads and villages and, conversely, the mutual dependence of cities united in a hierarchy are emphasized. A hypothesis about the deterioration of city formation while facilitating survival is proposed and motivated. A conclusion is drawn about the progressive degradation of modern settlements system.