Jornal of Management, Economics and Industrial Organization

1-19

Authors: Theara Chhorn, Chukiat Chaiboonsri

The paper aims at estimating and forecasting international tourist arrivals to Cambodia during the time interval of 2000m1 to 2017m7, covering 209 of monthly observations. To find out factors affecting tourist arrivals, simple OLS and 2SLS with instrument variable regression are applied, on the one hand. On the other hand, several time series models of ARIMA (p, d, q), GARCH (s, r) and the hybrid of ARIMA(p, d, q)-GARCH(s, r) are employed to forecast tourist arrivals in line with AIC and BIC in selecting the best modified models. The empirical results primarily reveal that tourist arrivals are affected by exogenous factor, say exchange rate, dummy factors such as the AEC, global finical crisis, national election and Cambodia’s e-Visa. With regard to forecasting stage, the result indicates that tourist arrivals are shocked by time trend in the past period, say time (t-1). The trend is furthermore reduced due to the time lags, say time (t-2, t-3) as shown in the parameter coefficients of AR. GARCH (1, 1) model suggests that the short run persistence of shocks lies in the gap of 0.04 whereas the long run persistence lies in the gap of 0.94. Additionally, AIC and BIC propose that ARIMA(3, 1, 4) and the hybrid of ARIMA(3, 1, 4)-GARCH (1, 1) are the best model to predict the future value of tourist arrivals. The RMSE and U index obtained from measurement predictive accuracy reveal that long run 1-step ahead forecasting of 2013m12 to 2017m7 is produced the smallest predictive error amongst the others. Thus, it has more predictive power to apply long term ex-ante forecasting.

35-50

Authors: El Monineath

This empirical study examines the factors affecting export performance in Cambodia through the period of 1993-2015. This study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate the long and short-run relationship among export and its determinant factors-inflation, real exchange rate, official development assistance, and trade liberalization. The study finds that INF obtains negative relationship with EX in both short and long run meanwhile TL has positive relationship with EX. But, RER has negative impact on the export performance in the short run only; ODA poses the significant positive relationship in the long run, vice versa. Unexpected positive relationship between crisis and export would be explain by insignificant impact of 1997 ASEAN financial crisis and the remaining growth of export during 2008 world economic crisis. The significant and negative coefficient of ECMt−1 indicates the relative speed of adjustment to achieve the long run equilibrium. This study suggests that government should prioritize to maintain inflation rate and real exchange rate, which negatively associate the export performance and export competitiveness of the country, at an optimum level. This study provides concrete evidence for policymakers in conducting the feasible policies to enhance and facilitate the trade liberalization in Cambodia.

62-75

Authors: Osman Nuri Aras, Mustafa Öztürk

The effects of the main macroeconomic determinants on the sovereign credit rating of Turkey assigned by Standard & Poor’s are analyzed in this paper. As the main macroeconomic determinants, inflation rate, economic growth rate, foreign direct investment, external debt, current account debt and savings are taken into account in this study. The data related to Turkey in this study covers between 1992-2016. In this study, the Granger causality test and the OLS regression model are used for that correlations of the variables. Outcomes of the analysis show that just two in six macroeconomic determinants are effective on the sovereign credit rating. According to the results of the study, external debt and inflation rate have a statistically significant relationship with the sovereign credit rating of Turkey. The outcomes show that external debt and the inflation rate have negative effects on the sovereign credit rating of the country. The coefficient of the external debt and the inflation is negative which means that if the inflation or external debt increases the rating decreases in appropriate with the theory. On the other hand, the effects of the other four macroeconomic variables are not significant. The results of the study indicate that some factors other than the primary macroeconomic determinants are effective on the sovereign credit ratings of Turkey. The results also unveil the door for the criticism that the decisions of the credit rating agencies are biased.