Expert Journal of Finance

4-18

Authors: Claudiu Ilie OPREANA

This paper aims to analyse the market risk (estimated by Value-at-Risk) on the Romanian capital market using modern econometric tools to estimate volatility, such as EWMA, GARCH models. In this respect, I want to identify the most appropriate volatility forecasting model to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portofolio of representative indices (BET, BET-FI and RASDAQ-C). VaR depends on the volatility, time horizon and confidence interval for the continuous returns under analysis. Volatility tends to happen in clusters. The assumption that volatility remains constant at all times can be fatal. It is determined that the most recent data have asserted more influence on future volatility than past data. To emphasize this fact, recently, EWMA and GARCH models have become critical tools in financial applications. The outcome of this study is that GARCH provides more accurate analysis than EWMA.This approach is useful for traders and risk managers to be able to forecast the future volatility on a certain market.

28-32

Authors: Alin OPREANA

Andersen and Jordan (1968) and Andersen (1971) argued that fiscal actions have a negligible effect on nominal income and can not sustain a stable and balanced economic growth. Also, they argued, along with other researchers who have embraced monetarism ideas from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, that the budget deficit presents negativeeffects in the economy that limit private investment. In this article, we analyzed the empirical relationship that is established between the tax actions and the long and short term national income in the U.S. economy and the economies of Eurozone.