Revista Conjuntura Austral

10-21

Authors: Yetzy Urimar Villarroel, Adriana Patricia Castaño Román, Luis Javier Ruíz

This investigation starts from the premise, according to which, we are witnessing a change of epoch that began with a transition stage, which begins with the fall of the Berlin wall and ends in 2001 with the collapse of the World Trade Center. The objective is to problematize and analyze the instability that characterizes this period of global transition and reconfiguration, in which global fractures have occurred that have given rise to geopolitical and geoeconomic changes. It makes use of the qualitative methodology, specifically, the documentary review and the hermeneutic analysis, while, it consists of a historical and conjuncture analysis. While, from a theoretical point of view, it is an interdisciplinary study, which uses structuralist and transnationalist theories to carry out the analysis.

35-50

Authors: María Elena Lorenzini, Gisela Pereyra Doval

The starting point of this article is that the so-called Liberal World Order is questioned by a set of global trends, among which the following stand out: the rise of China; the emergence and extension of illiberal political leadership; a certain degree of decline in free trade, in favour of less multilateral and more protectionist policies. The configuration of these global trends affects the margins of manoeuvre that South American countries have to design and execute their strategies for international insertion. For this reason, we propose to identify the most relevant global and South American trends while we assume that they constrain, and enable, affect and shape, to certain degrees and intensities, the dynamics of our region. By virtue of the foregoing, this article begins with the presentation of the foundations that account for the tensions experienced by the Liberal World Order based on the premises proposed by Haass (2018). Then identify and characterize the major global trends. Finally, it identifies the main regional trends: democratic recession, crisis of regionalisms and crisis of regional multilateral spaces, understanding that these are closely related to the global macro trend and the international trends.

63-73

Authors: María Victoria Alvarez

Latin American attempts at regionalism have been pursued through different waves. The last wave, post-liberal or post-hegemonic regionalism, is fading. Building on contributions from International Political Economy, European Studies and International Relations, the paper aims at answering two main questions: how can we characterize the current paths of regional integration in Latin America considering the trends of the last ten years? What can we expect of Latin American regionalism over the next decade? Grounded on a qualitative content analysis, we address three premises based on the past trajectory of Latin American regionalism in order to grasp some of the present and (possible) futures trends: membership of regional organizations, institutional design of regional organizations and the role of the United States. After contrasting these elements with recent Latin American regionalist developments, the paper engages in a creative exercise of forecasting. The purpose is not to pretend to know the future nor to predict it but to present two imaginable scenarios: a short-term scenario and a longer-term scenario. Maybe we are about to witness some “stranger things” in the future of Latin American regionalism, opening up to different realities, different explanations and alternatives.

87-99

Authors: Andres Ferrari Haines, Erik Herejk Ribeiro

The Chinese and Indian clash in June 2020 along their disputed border, despite being a long non-resolved issue, has acquired new meaning in the present global geopolitical tensions. It could erupt into a deep feud which will involve the two Asian giants in a much wider confrontation. Because their relevance in world affairs, this conflict would affect countries not only nearby, but all over the globe, amidst the substratum of the ongoing confrontation China is having with the United States. This article analyses the different aspects that are affecting this misunderstanding, linking historical concerns with recent developments. Based on the classical geopolitical analysis of the Rimland, it envisions the various constraints and impulses that will define the future of the two most populous countries of the Eurasian landmass, which are now among the largest global economies. The analysis points to the anxieties that drove China and India to the frontier clash and the mutual insecurities with regard to each other’s behavior, particularly in their relationships with third countries. In lieu of this, a solution of the dispute seems out of reach as it has become part of the present century’s geopolitical shift which is once again putting Asia in the center of the global competition.

18

Authors: Jacqueline A. Haffner, Betina Thomaz Sauter

Este artigo realiza uma caracterização geral da economia indiana - perpassando as diferentes estratégias desenvolvimento do país - e dos seus principais desafios. Após adquirir status de Estado-Nação independente em 1947, a Índia procurou desenvolver-se economicamente através de planos quinquenais com forte intervenção do Estado. Mas, a despeito disso, a performance econômica do país ficou aquém das expectativas e recebeu o estigma da “taxa de crescimento hindu” por sua estagnação. A partir da década de 1980 a Índia começa a reverter essa trajetória, mas logo sucumbenuma forte crise econômica. Contudo, apesar das reformas liberalizantes da década de 1990, o país logra manter certa autonomia, estimular o dinamismo de sua economia e obter resultados econômicos positivos. No entanto, a Índia ainda necessita superar uma série de desafios como o energético e de infraestrutura, assim como as disparidades já existentes, em termos de desigualdade e emprego.Assim sendo, o artigo estrutura-se em: a exposição da estratégia de desenvolvimento “voltado para dentro” do recém-formado Estado-nação da Índia; a discussão da nova estratégia de desenvolvimento do país na era neoliberal; e, por último são abordas as altas taxas de crescimento do Estado indiano e alguns de seus desafios.

19

Authors: Laerte Apolinário Júnior, Augusto Leal Rinaldi

This paper analyzes the BRICS countries’ activities in the International Development Cooperation (IDC) field through a comparative analysis. In the last decade, some changes have occurred in the IDC landscape as developing countries started to assume a prominent role in a topic historically dominated by traditional donors. Among these new players, the BRICS deserve special attention. Using a descriptive and comparative methodology, we analyze the convergences and divergences among these countries regarding their IDC practices. In particular, we addressed the following question: How have the BRICS countries performed in the IDC field in the last decade? To do so, we analyzed this variable through four analytical dimensions i) historical context, ii) geopolitical context, iii) institutional context, and iv) domestic policy context. The general findings suggest that although their IDC policies present some commonalities, they also manifest important differences, especially regarding the amount and scope of recipients, and adherence to DAC/OECD guidelines and terminologies.

21

Authors: Luiza Peruffo

This article analyses the ongoing transformations in the international monetary and financial system (IMFS) since the outbreak of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the role played by the BRICS countries. It argues that while changes the BRICS countries have been marginal, because there was not a substantial shift in the underlying power relations, these changes still matter because they are power as an end in itself. The article looks into three areas where the group was relatively successful in challenging the system: (i) increasing their voice in major global economic forums (focusing on the IMF and the G20), (ii) creating new international financial institutions and (iii) influencing the IMF’s new institutional view of capital flows. It then discusses the limits of the BRICS’ monetary and financial power given their subordinated position in the IMFS, China being the exception. Understanding the rise and limitations of the BRICS’ monetary and financial power is important because they encourage the existing theoretical framework to advance if it wants to understand how subordinated players in the IMFS – such as emerging economies and the groupings formed by them (like the BRICS) – can have their way in a system which is rigid, hierarchical and still dominated by advanced economies.

24

Authors: Jing CHENG

This paper aims to make an overall analysis and comparative research on the BRICS students education in China from the BRICS countries (Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa) from 2010 to 2018. During this period, with the promotion of the Chinese government and the cooperation of the BRICS countries, the total number of the BRICS students studying in China had continued to grow, finally approaching 50,000. Based on the statistics released by China’s Ministry of Education and mainly using comparative research and quantitative research methods, the paper focuses on the development and problems of the BRICS students education in China during the period from 2010 to 2018, and gives some recommendations for its further development. To demonstrate the ideas, the paper will be divided into five parts. After the introduction, the second part will present the evolution and development overview of Chinese policy on the international students education in China from 2010 to 2018. In the third part, it will be concentrated on the analysis of development in the BRICS students education in China during this period, and its problems will be analyzed in the fourth part. At last, the fifth one, there will be a conclusion and some recommendations for its further development.

9-34

Authors: The Royal Society

Currently, the complexity of global problems, such as pandemics and the economic recession, the rise of political and religious extremisms of the most varied orders, such as anti-vaccine movements and the “waves” of “fake news” in the creation of false “myths” and in the spread of lies, and the spread of pseudo-scientific currents, such as “terraplanismo”, deny the validity of scientific knowledge and, therefore, threaten the future of humanity. In this dark context, a large part of society, as a reaction to these movements, defends the increasing role of science in the political life of society and in national and international public policy decisions. With that, the idea of “science diplomacy” gained strength in academic and political forums. Thus, this text is a translation of the article “New frontiers in science diplomacy Navigating the changing balance of power” by the Royal Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). This is one of the founding texts of "scientific diplomacy" in the world, as it works with key concepts, such as "science in diplomacy", "diplomacy for science", "science for diplomacy". In addition, he does some case studies on the importance of scientific diplomacy.

54-72

Authors: Iara Costa Leite, Júlia Mascarello, Nicole Aguilar Gayard

Science diplomacy has recently become a buzzword in policy and in academic discussions. Definitions and approaches have been informed by literature produced by practitioners of science diplomacy situated in developed countries. This article maps and systematizes narratives authored by Brazilian diplomats on science, technology and innovation (STI) and their connections with international relations dynamics and issues, such as power, cooperation, development, security and the environment. By addressing pieces produced by practitioners as narratives, rather than as scientific categories that describe and analyze social phenomena, the article explores how STI is perceived and framed by Brazilian diplomats. The methodology included the selection and systematization of publications authored by ministers of Foreign Affairs, in whose diplomatic writings the words “science”, “technology”, “innovation” and their variants were searched; and pieces on STI produced by career diplomats. Writing from the perspective of Brazil as a developing country, most of reviewed pieces hold a highly critical view towards the international dimensions of STI, which are not seen as politically neutral. However, none of the diplomats disagree on the need for Brazil and other developing countries to build STI capacities as a means to accumulate power and/or to develop. International cooperation on different geometries is seen as crucial for that though perceptions on the effectiveness of North-South and South-South STI cooperation can vary.

90-104

Authors: Gabriela Gomes Coelho Ferreira, Amancio Jorge Nunes Silva de Oliveira

The use of soft power resources in smart strategies, has been usually linked by the literature with developed countries due to a perspective in which—especially—soft power is seen as an extension of hard power. However, Brazil, a developing country, has been signing Cultural Agreements since 1930s aiming to use science and education as diplomatic tools. This paper aims to give an historical perspective to the Brazilian science diplomacy through the signature of these bilateral cultural agreements since de 1930’s, and its development into education diplomacy in the 1960’s. We show in this paper that Brazil created a strong science diplomacy, embedded into its cultural diplomacy, by relying on the creation of a legitimate narrative based on culture, science and education as an alternative for its lack of hard power. These cultural agreements were developed into national exchange programmes focusing mainly on higher education students since 1965, and they exist still nowadays—as one of the world longest science (and education) diplomacy strategies of its kind, creating a successful and steady foreign policy managed by the Brazilian diplomatic body.

123-140

Authors: Tulio Sérgio Henriques Ferreira, Clarice Maria Lima Fortes

The article aims to analyze the formulation of the Brazilian Foreign Policy in the context of the Malvinas War (1982), focusing on the understanding of the position adopted by the most relevant actors in this process. Thus, the present study seeks to understand the Brazilian diplomatic option for “imperfect neutrality”, as well as to identify and analyze the influence of the actors involved in the process of formulation and implementation of the foreign policy regarding the conflict. It is argued that the Brazilian government acted constrained by the internal conjecture and its historical bilateral relations with Argentina, as well as the centrality of the austral country to the Figueiredo’s government and the peculiar characteristics of the Brazilian Foreign Affairs Ministry. In this sense, the identification of the “decision-making unit” prevalent in structuring the national positioning regarding the Anglo-Argentine dispute under analysis emerges as an important variable for the understanding of the country's position throughout the work.

160-175

Authors: Larissa Netto Lira Rangel Rigamonte, Viviane Mozine Rodrigues, Vinicius Francisco Marchese

This article aims to analyze the legal advances presented by Brazil in relation to the refuge subject, contrasting them with the reports and difficulties faced by those who arrive here and are covered by such themes. The observation of these oppositions aims to respond to the necessary examination of the extent to which legal advances meet the financial, social and emotional demands of individuals who flee from adverse realities in a pursuit of a new environment in which they can feel inserted, continuing their lives. In this case, three Syrian refugees established in the State of São Paulo since 2014 have been accompanied and interviewed. Based on their reports, we make points for reflection on improvements regarding the reception and adaptation processes of these and other cases to a country and to a very different culture from which they originated. Following this, the records exposed here and the considerations established by the authors intend to contribute to debates committed to filling gaps and resolving issues present in a topic that deserves greater prominence, both in academic circles and in the scope of Public Policies.

5-16

Authors: Geraldine Rosas Duarte, Matheus de Abreu Costa Souza

Between 1983 and 2009, Sri Lanka witnessed an intense separatist conflict involving the government armed forces and the Tamil ethnic group, represented by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The conflict forcibly ended in 2009 following the success of a government-launched military offensive, and therefore no peace agreement was signed to seal peace between the parties. Thus, we intend to elaborate an analysis that discusses the current impact of the military victory regarding the relationship between the Sri Lankan government and the Tamil ethnic minority. To do so, we resorted to a number of follow-up reports highlighting advances and setbacks in the relationship between the Sri Lankan government and the Tamil minority between May 2009 and September 2019. The evidence mobilized here points to the fact that military victory did not result in an effective resolution of the conflict, since the Tamils did not have their demands for autonomy met in the post-conflict context and, in addition, ethnic tensions remained within the country groups, as well as the marginalization and repression of Tamils in the country.

38-58

Authors: David P. Succi Junior, Helena Salim de Castro

The International Relations field constituted itself through the theoretical division between a pacified domestic sphere and an anarchic international system. States, as sovereign actors, are understood to have the legitimate monopoly of force within their borders, while struggle to survive in the international realm. However, certain dynamics and actors challenge this division. This paper aims to show how the political construction of transnational organized crime as a threat and the definition of the means of force employed to combat it, especially the armed forces, break with the sharp division between domestic and international. In discussing the case of combating drug trafficking in Brazil, it is understood that the definition of such activity as a threat results from a process of expansion and internationalization of the "war on drugs" policy, fostered by the United States government. The definition of crime was therefore not limited to the territoriality of the Brazilian state. At the same time, the deployment of the armed forces to combat internal crime, which is recurrent in Brazilian history, demonstrates that the theoretical division in question represents a normative principle and not a description of a historical pattern.

80-99

Authors: Vinícius Lerina Fialho, Andrés Ernesto Ferrari Haines

This article discusses the importance of Gwadar Port. In order to do so, we first identify the regional context of the Indian Ocean, where the Port is, and its internal conditions present in the Baluchistan region. The research aims to answer how the Gwadar Port becomes an important instrument for Pakistan-China relations, which culminates in its inclusion in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and, consequently, in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It is assumed that, for Pakistan, the Port means a strategic alternative to the territorial proximity with India, while for China, it serves as the main access route to the Indian Ocean, the Persian Gulf, and the Arabian Sea, reducing Beijing's dependence on the use of the South Sea. Given this, structurally, this work is carried out from three sections. In the first place, it aims to understand the geopolitical context of the Indian Ocean. Next, it seeks to present the internal constraints of the Baluchistan region. Subsequently, the objective is to identify the importance of the Port of Gwadar. Finally, some final considerations are raised on the theme development in this research

8-27

Authors: Júlia Loose

Este artigo tem como objetivo primário a análise exploratória do documento da Política Declaratória de Defesa de Israel, divulgada ao público pela primeira vez na história do Estado (2015). Como objetivo secundário, busca-se analisar o reflexo da aliança histórica de Estados Unidos e Israel na Política de Defesa israelense, objetivando o recorte analítico quanto à interpretação do país no que tange a definição do inimigo. Em face deste cenário parte-se do seguinte problema de pesquisa: Qual o papel dos Estados Unidos na construção da atual política declaratória de defesa de Israel no que tange a identificação de ameaças? A hipótese inicial considera que as ameaças identificadas por Israel são produto da aliança histórica e congruência de interesses de ambos países para o Sistema Regional do Oriente Médio. Argumenta-se que a congruência de interesses de Estados Unidos e Israel se traduzem na estratégia de alinhamento de balanceamento regional. Para melhor compreensão ao leitor, a estrutura do texto se divide em duas seções que correspondem aos objetivos do trabalho: inicialmente analisam-se as mudanças estruturais do período Pós Guerra Fria e o arcabouço teórico de alinhamentos sistêmicos; na segunda seção apresenta-se o estudo da Política Declaratória de Defesa israelense, atentando-se para os seguintes fatores: i) caso de Israel como Regional Power; ii)histórico da aliança com Estados Unidos, e iii) análise do documento “The Israel Defense Forces Strategy” (2015). A metodologia empregada consiste na adoção de fontes primárias (análise do Documento de Defesa Nacional) e fontes secundárias (revisão bibliográfica sobre o tema).

61-81

Authors: Luana Isabelle Beal, Débora Sulzbach de Andrade, Valeska Ferrazza Monteiro

Este artigo visa analisar o papel cumprido pelo aerotransporte na condução alemã da Segunda Guerra Mundial. O propósito é o de demonstrar como este componente foi um fator decisivo para a Alemanha na época. Para isto, parte-se do estudo de Mearsheimer para verificar o conceito de Blitzkrieg presente na literatura. Daí, analisa-se a relevância do componente aerotransportado, das Armas combinadas e da logística aérea nos níveis do planejamento de guerra. Em seguida, abordam-se os casos do Bolsão de Demyansk e da Batalha de Stalingrado como forma de aferir as possibilidades e limites do aerotransporte na Guerra do Leste. Por fim, avaliam-se as lições da Blitzkrieg para as operações e a doutrina militar da atualidade.

82-108

Authors: Carlos Gustavo Poggio Teixeira, Daniella da Silva Nogueira de Melo

Este artigo contribui para os estudos sobre operações out-of-area da OTAN focado no Atlântico Sul. Pela primeira vez, essa região apareceu na agenda da organização na década de 1970, quando a presença soviética ameaçou o transporte marítimo comercial das potências ocidentais. Após a Guerra Fria, a Aliança transformou suas capacidades e estrutura para adaptar-se aos eventos do novo cenário de segurança internacional, expandindo atividades além das fronteiras do Atlântico Norte. Acordos de parceria com a Colômbia e Mauritânia, exercícios militares conjuntos com Cabo Verde, Gana e outros países da África Ocidental evidenciam a projeção da OTAN no Atlântico Sul. Além disso, o artigo expõe a abundância de recursos naturais, as ameaças à segurança e a crescente projeção de atores extrarregionais (Rússia, China e Índia) como prováveis fatores de engajamento da OTAN na região.

126-138

Authors: Samir Perrone de Miranda

O artigo busca abordar a autoproclamada “nova política externa brasileira” da gestão Michel Temer e seus efeitos sobre as relações com a América do Sul. Considerando o retrospecto de iniciativas do Brasil para o acercamento regional, desenvolve-se uma análise histórica e discursiva desta diplomacia, assinalando suas diretrizes, seus agentes, bem como eventuais mudança nos sentidos atribuídos à integração sul-americana – pauta prioritária para relações exteriores do país no século XXI.