The Journal of International Economic Policy

17

Authors: Tatyana Deyneka

Modern global society is becoming increasingly controversial. Under such conditions, the question of prospects for life of megasociety, which demands theoretical and methodological research from the economic science, as well as a thorough analysis of empiricists, becomes of special relevance. The publication presents the concept of systemic transformation of the global economy and global community. The following is defined: subsystems (spheres) of transformed community system (economic, political, social, spiritual); objects of transformation, the change of which is essential for the acquisition of a new quality by the system; causes and determinants of system transformation. Based on this, it is proved that the system of world community harmonized in its internal composition is integrity, each of its subsystems corresponds to the imperative of humanism. If this equirement is fulfilled, the world community will be able to move to a higher level of civilization development. In the process of studying transformation of the global society, a methodology has been used to identify these changes in the mega-society and describe them with a model. Choosing the defining parameters of the model allowed to answer the following questions: what is the purpose of humanity, radically changing its life; what are the structural transformations; in what way will community evolve; how the relations in such a society will be institutionalized. On the basis of the applied theory and methodology, the following is substantiated: The purpose of social dynamics is the comprehensive development of man and the creation of a society based on the principles of noosphere; changes in the structure of social system occur simultaneously with changes in subsystems and are subject to the imperative of continuous enrichment of the potential of society development; innovation as a basis for social reproduction in all its spheres is a way of society evolving; the systematic institutionalization of social relations is a cumulative effect of institutionalization of relations according to areas (post-industrial in the economy, polycentric international order in politics, nostalgic relations of harmonization of interests and ensuring mutual agreement of subjects in the social sphere and relations stipulated by the ideology of humanism — in the spiritual sphere); the reason and determining factor of the transformation of the system is aggravation/resolution of the contradiction between global capital and civil society, which is objectified in all spheres of community's life. According to the parameters of prognostic representation of the transformation of a global community, the transformation of each of its spheres — economic, political, social and spiritual — is described according to single methodology and identification parameters.

20

Authors: Mykola Burmaka, Fedir Zinchenko

The article is about the research of processes of global transformation of stock exchanges through the mechanisms of internationalization, corporate and network consolidation, and technology. Objective processes of internationalization in stock markets affected by financial globalization and arising global information resources create new challenges for stock exchanges that can be overcome by adequate development strategies. The growing competition between stock exchanges and new capital institutes requires stock exchanges to use modern exchange technologies, primarily innovative, in order to maintain liquidity and increase investment attractiveness. Have been analysed the newest tendencies and determinants of modern global financial institutional architecture construction, the leading role in which are starting to play new stock exchanges and stalk exchange platforms, formed in growing financial centres of the world. Have been identified he main components of international stock market restructurization in the process of financial globalization, one of the attributes of which turned out to be a certain fragmentation of markets and their universalization. Through the example of US and EU financial market modernization processes of the last decade have been analysed financial and legal mechanisms of the national and regional levels, which are designed to ensure sustainable development of the global economy at the postcrisis stage. Have been diagnosed international activity of stock exchanges through the quantity indexed of foreign companies in listing, volume of trade with foreign financial instruments, and participation of foreign investors in exchange trade. Have been offered and calculated indices of internationalization of the world’s leading stock market. Have been analysed consolidation processes of the leading stock exchanges and new electronic trading systems at the regional, meso-global and global levels, which resulted in formation of powerful stock holdings able to meet the needs of a wide range of traders and investors with diversified investment strategies. Have been identified key factors of world stock exchange restructurization under the influence informatization, networking and technologizing processes. Have been revealed motivation, mechanisms, and consequences of stock markets in European Union, the USA and Asian region at the modern stage of development

21

Authors: Volodymyr Panchenko, Nataliia Reznikova

The article summarizes the main concepts of the policy of protectionism. It was proved that the shaded or semi-open nature of protectionism of the 21st century model does not fall under classical manifestations of protectionism recorded in the WTO documents, and therefore further hybridization of its forms actualizes the need for their classification in order to attract the attention of the scientific community to new challenges to the global regulation of the system of international economic relations. It was discovered, that protectionism in the process of economical globalization has evolved from trade policy based on introduction of tariff limitations, and later from non-tariff protection instruments, into a complex comprehensive state mechanism for increasing competitiveness of the national economy in the process of globalization, which we call neo-protectionism. Was provided a classification of neo-protectionism and were singled out forms of manifestation of each of its types. Were established country features of neo-protectionism policy. Was established that flexibility of tools for implementing neo-protectionism policy, absence of a unified approach to interpreting the methods of achieving goals announced by the state, differences in priorities and unity of the goals of all instruments, which are to stimulate restoration of economic growth, can be considered as determinative signs of new regulation. It was found that state intervention becomes an inherent characteristic of liberal politics. Was observed that neo-protectionism with its flexible instruments becomes a policy of reducing asymmetric distribution of benefits from globalization and reaction to global imbalances, which again emphasizes the thesis that state participation in regulation of economic processes is an objective reality, and we are witnessing transformation of the previously announced trend towards deregulation into re-regulation.

42

Authors: Zoriana Lutsyshyn, Elnur Mekhtiiev

The article is dedicated to investigation of the place and role of offshore financial centers in financial globalization system, and of the reasons for using offshores in assets securitization mechanism. Numerous offshore and other preferential zones enabling to avoid the effective national and governmental tax regime are important attributes of global financial system and redistributive links of world financial flows. At present, around 70 countries and territories offer their offshore services for foreign capital, bank transactions, profitability from activities in financial markets proper. The global offshore business concentrates large amounts often having no relation to the country of origin, the so-called cosmopolitan capital (wandering). Although in the early 80's of the XXth century offshore companies were considered to control approximately 500 billion dollars, it was already in the early 90's that this amount doubled and was estimated as 1 trillion dollars. Today, from ⅓ to half of the world capital turnover goes through offshore business channels, and therefore, almost half of non-resident bank deposits are concentrated in world offshore centers. These are the world financial centers comprising international capital markets that provide for the accumulation and redistribution of world capital. From the process of reproduction (circulation of capital), the world financial centers plunge out the most homogeneous and mobile element — money, and freely manipulating with them, concentrate huge economic power in their hands. The role of world financial centers was also enhanced by the latest achievements in computer science, allowing execution of instant transactions and movement of huge amounts to any point of the world within the shortest possible time. The world financial centers consist not only of powerful banks and financial institutions operating on the international scene, but also have currency, stock and other exchanges as their integral parts concertedly working under increasingly unified rules. The world financial centers are establishing new criteria for economic activity, modifying its motivation and priorities. Basically, these changes are aimed at shortening the activities timing and advancing profitability over all other criteria. As a result, substantial portion of funds is directed not to production, but to purely financial transactions. The matter is not only that with significant financial resources available, the volume of competitive production facilities according to international standards is limited and often burdened with increased political risk. The financial sector itself is artificially creating particularly favorable conditions for itself, at the same time generating risks to be mitigated and securitized.

19

Authors: Tatyana Tsygankova, Anna Ishchenko

In context of post-industrial development of global economy, escalating competition in international goods markets, the definition of competitive export is proposed based upon both existing criteria – sustainability, effectiveness, adaptivity and fair competition, and on those described in the work – ecological performance, service maintenance, brand awareness and high technology. Given that, it is proved that with the aim of detailing the elements of competitive export, the latter should be typified depending upon the performer (export competitiveness of a company, country, region) and subject (export competitiveness of goods, services, rights upon intellectual property objects), keeping in mind universal and specific features of export criteria proposed to be characterised through a range of indices on corporate and state levels. Groups of factors affecting export competitiveness building are systematized (institutional, financial and economic, marketing, foreign trade, scientific and technological, resource-related and social and ecological). Marketing technologies are typified on corporate level under the following criteria: novelty, object, creative component availability, internationalization stages, international marketing forms, digitalization level, management functions, customer-centreness scale, international marketing activity stages, financial security, specific features of intercorporate coordination. The practice of applying international marketing technologies by companies is investigated. In context of necessity to overcome crisis phenomena and increase competitive export volume, an assessment is made of integrating national manufacturing into regulated global chains of creating added value with the relevant rating, in particular, depending upon the available potential, minimality of technical and organizational changes, marketing relevancy, enabling to determine the manufacturing areas most prepared to cooperation, and estimate marketing contribution into market success.

19

Authors: Oleksii Chugaiev

The economic power of a country is the ability of all its residents to influence the other subjects of international economic relations by economic means and to withstand external impact. The abstract nature, multidimensionality and complexity of the concept of economic power determine the plurality of methods for its quantitative measurement. The examples of the existing assessments of countries' economic power at the beginning of the 21st century are given based on its key determinants. The methods based on the criteria of GDP, national wealth, trade sphere of influence, multi-component indices and subjective assessments are preferably used. Most assessments show the distribution of economic power between countries in a fairly similar way. However, the methods based on national wealth and its components give a distinct advantage to developed countries, and the methods of subjective assessments in individual countries can show unexpected results. The problematic aspects of the existing methods include the failure to take into account economic dynamics, informal economy, environmental impact, non-periodicity of statistical data publication, coverage of a part of economic entities, one-dimensionality, arbitrary weighting coefficients of factors or duplication of information. We propose the economic power index based on fixed values and dynamics of adjusted net national income. The application of such index made it possible to assess the economic power of the vast majority of countries and a number of integrated entities. The leading countries, i.e. USA and China, were similarly assessed. Taking into account the incomplete integration, the EU takes the third place. The developed countries account for a half of economic power of the world’s countries, the newly industrialized countries — for more than one third, the least developed countries — for less than 1 per cent. The enhancing effect of integrated entities on their key member states was assessed. The advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method of assessment were presented. It has advantages when comparing countries with similar economy size and does not have any significant advantages in relation to the method of GDP when comparing economies of a significantly different sizes. The proposed method points to the relatively larger power of the North American countries, developed countries and East Asian countries as compared to their share in the gross world product.

26

Authors: Liubov Galperina, Yuliia Klen

The article explores conditions, factors and results of mergers and acquisitions in international business with the example of the energy industry. The directions of world energy market transformation in the framework of PESTLE analysis have been determined by the factors influencing the efficiency and future of the companies that have effected mergers and acquisitions. The transformation of the global energy market is associated with changes in the main market parameters that affect the sectoral and regional structure of international mergers and acquisitions. Including: growing demand for energy from the growing population of the planet, including due to an increase in the middle class share; fluctuation of world oil market prices; the growth of supply of shale oil changing the transnational flows of trade in primary petroleum products; rising demand for renewable energy as a result of cheapening technologies and diversification policies; the growth of renewable energy sources supply; increase in demand for atomic energy; improvement of energy infrastructure; introduction of energy efficient and low carbon technologies; introduction of safe technologies by energy companies; reduction of transaction costs in power grids due to optimization of modes at application of Smart Grid at all levels (local, on-site, regional, national, international); the expansion of the world-leading countries in the primary energy markets; demonopolization of national energy markets and liberalization of energy markets of the EU, USA, Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc. The world market of mergers and acquisitions has been characterized with the definition of key features of its development. International mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector are analysed on the basis of regional and industry characteristics. The international mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector has been analysed, taking into account the main scenarios for the development of the global energy market (reform, restoration, competition). The tendencies of mergers and acquisitions in energy in the context of the energy markets transformation have been revealed, including, but not limited to: the increase in the number and value of transactions in renewable energy under any scenario of the global energy market development; the cyclical nature of the mergers and acquisitions development; synchronization of mergers and acquisitions cycles in energy and world market of mergers and acquisitions; increase in the number of transactions; involvement of innovative energy companies that implement energy-efficient production, intelligent technologies, and robotics in the consolidation processes; increase in the share of cross-border mergers and acquisitions; accelerated regional growth in the number and value of mergers and acquisitions transactions in the developed countries of Western Europe, North America (USA, Canada), Asia-Pacific (China, India, Australia); the high growth rates of international mergers and acquisitions among developing countries in the countries of Central and South America (Mexico, Brazil), as well as in some African countries where the renewable energy is being rapidly developing (Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria).

30

Authors: Svitlana Radziyevska, Ivan Us, Dmytro Pokryshka

The end of XX – the beginning of the XXI century was marked by the bright discovery that Chinese economy became one of the leading factors in global development, the powerful locomotive of globalization. On the background of negative impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-2010 the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has proven to be the most stable and able to definite development, though at a slower pace on the vast majority of countries in the world. Only due to China the centre of world progress started shifting from Western Europe and North America to the APR. An analysis of peculiarities of the course of globalization processes shows that China, under the slogan of open peace-loving politics, actually strengthens its political and economic activities aimed at transformation of the existing unipolar world headed by the United States into a multipolar world. China's foreign policy is aimed at achieving the status of a superstate until the middle of 21st century. In the article PRC Concept “Belt and Road Initiative” is considered as a proof of existence of such a strategy. At the same time, attention is drawn to the fact that in order to achieve its goal, China establishes trade ties with all countries of the world, primarily through the introduction of free trade zones (FTAs) and an increase in investments, which is clearly manifested in its Eurasian policy, as well as in the implementation of the Concept of “Belt and Road Initiative”. The article proves the expediency of establishing an FTA between Ukraine and China and more active involving Ukraine in the implementation of the New Silk Road project based on the analysis of trade and economic relations between Ukraine and China and based on the specific state of its economy in the conditions of geopolitical and geoeconomic instability. The article covers the key tendencies of Ukraine’s foreign trade cooperation with China in the context of the FTA initiative. The main goods, which account for the majority of exportimport operations from both countries are determined. The customs tariffs of Ukraine and China for individual goods, export of which is important for the Ukrainian economy are analysed. As a result of this analysis, it was determined that the main issue of potential negotiations on FTA with China is the need for a significant reduction of China’s tariffs on wheat and maize, which is 65%. The political risks of concluding an agreement on the FTA, in particular, because of the possible negative impact of such an agreement on the prospects of Ukraine’s EU membership, were identified, and recommendations were made to relevant government bodies both to ministries and to the profile committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

16

Authors: Iryna Kalenyuk, Anastasiia Dyachenko

This article analyzes modern development tendencies of university activities, it proved establishing of a global educational system, which shows increase of university education role, competition escalating and transformation of modern universities functions. It comprehensively studies the process when universities, both traditional and modern – business ones, are extending their functions. The article studied the development of scientists’ beliefs related to the essence and forms of entrepreneurial universities. On a basis of generalization of existing approaches, the authors give definition of the essence of entrepreneurial university as a subject of educational, scientific and other allied activities, which receives financial resources from diversified sources, extends fields of its activities and services. The foundation of the system of extended and main criteria for definition of entrepreneurial universities was laid. The main ones are the following: considerable financial autonomy and receiving of significant funding from non-governmental and diversified sources. Amounts and financial funding structure of the world leading universities were analyzed. It was proved that income from activities, which are allied with the main one (educational) activity, increase. The article provides the amounts and the significance of international grants that ensure financial firmness, financial motivation of personnel, upgrades of facilities and resources, initiation and effectiveness of scientific-research activities of universities. Special attention was paid to research of such financial resources of the world leading universities as endowment funds, their scales, features and importance to boost economic capacities of higher education establishments. It was proved that it is important to consider world experience of entrepreneurial universities’ work within development and improving of competitive performance of Ukrainian higher education establishments in global educational system.

20

Authors: Anatoliy Kolot, Oksana Herasymenko

The overview of the current trends in social and labor segment globally and in the Ukrainian economy is provided. The crises in functioning of the social and labor segment as the forms of expression of the deficit of decent work were isolated. The reasons destabilizing the social and labor segment and limiting the development of the decent work institute are presented. The findings on the situation of self-employment and vulnerable employment worldwide are given. The modern transformations in employment through the lens of decent work are disclosed, with a focus on vulnerable employment. A correlation between inequality in income and a deficit of decent work is shown. The relationship and interaction between decent work and human values in terms of the new economy and postindustrial society development as a philosophical platform of the modern concept of decent work is proven. The aggravation of the crisis of values of the labor g life in the light of deficit of the decent work is explained. The conceptual foundations of the decent work are revealed. The author's vision of the decent work institute as an integrated political, economic, and social platform of sustainable development is reasoned. The criteria and components of the decent work are presented. The importance of inclusive labor markets to expand the scale of decent work is disclosed. The strategic landmarks of overcoming the deficit of decent work are delineated

25

Authors: Yevgen Panchenko, Mykola Voychak

The nature of the natural increase in the share of high-tech exports in the overall world exports and trade in general is revealed. The trends in geographical and industrial developments of a high-tech exports in 2004-2015 are shown in the world, developed countries and the EU. Based on the study of dynamics of the high-tech exports of the leading countries in general, as well as engineering products segment, the basic models of state regulation in this sphere are identified i.e. active dirigisme, moderate dirigisme and liberalism. The experience of maintaining a high-tech exports to the US, Germany, Britain, Japan, South Korea and China is summarized. The tendencies of high-tech exports of Ukrainian enterprises in industries such as aerospace engineering, electronics and telecommunications, scientific instruments, computer and office appliances, as well as military industrial products were analyzed. The directions of forming the state support of domestic exporters of high-tech products were identified.

22

Authors: Oleh Mozhovyi, Dmytro Malashchuk

For the purpose of further development of the world financial market theories fundamentals, the article specifies interpretation of its concept as a combination of interrelated segments — stock market, foreign exchange market, credit market, insurance market and investment market, subject to functional and institutional aspects. Based on the extended interpretation (of the financial market as a combination of inter-related segments) and analysis of a number of financial market notions, there have been comprehensively considered the notions of the world financial market in functional aspects (as a field of market relations which provide accumulation and interstate flow of money capitals in order to assure continuity and profitability of the recovery process) and institutional aspects (when attention is focused on a number of banks, specialized financial and credit establishments, stock exchanges through which world financial flows move). To identify specific features of the modern world financial market the systems approach principles were applied as a general scientific methodology of fundamental research. Based on such approach the inter-relation of segments, items and objects has been analyzed, the relation between the development factors of the world financial market has been determined.

22

Authors: Ellana Molchanova

The main ways of conceptualization of the beginning of a new economic order from Malthus’s ideas are researched. The main approaches to the determination of the key moments of formation of new economic order models and the main aspects of disregard of scientists’ ideas being fully justified but conflicting with imperatives of our time are analyzed. The main theoretical approaches which showed human influence on the environment and environmental effects of human activity are researched. Models of environmental effects of human activity are considered. Limits of population growth and human activity environmental effects are determined. Main computer models which have become prototypes of the modern econometric models for economic forecast are determined. The first approaches to the multidiscipline research of the main humanity problems are proposed. Ideas of the Rome Club have united the most of scientists of different streams, opinions, scholar schools and different sciences. This allowed to investigate in a wider manner multisided aspects of formation of a new economic order and to substantiate the current necessity of its transformation. The basis of the proposed research is formed by scientific researches of multi-discipline nature of the leading economists, members of the Rome Club. Besides, in the article a parallel is drawn concerning researches of scientists of the Rome Club and representatives of scholar schools of Latin America, Japan and Holland etc. All researches were focused on leveling of incomes per capita in the developed countries and the Third World countries due to the continuous support of low developed countries and optimal re-distribution of the economic structure. All proposed ideas were always criticized by the world community. On the one hand — developed countries, which should allot money for liquidation of disproportional development of the world economy and promote reduction in pollution of the developing countries. All the considered and proposed models come down to the increase in economic development of the developing countries at the expense of a group of developed countries. As well, a concept of “new humanism” is discovered. According to this concept, the main reasons of aggravation of global problems are political, psychological and cultural characteristics of public spirit represented by political negligence, irresponsibility resulting in inefficient political management. An idea of formation of a global government headed by leading countries of the world is visible. However, the said concept returns to the existing paradigm of the new economic order. Support of the current concept will lead to forecasted series of global economic recession with a series of ecological disasters.

31

Authors: Svitlana Radzievska

The article proves that the main factor of crisis is introduction of the sixth technological structure and the crisis gets global status as the result of financialization of global economy. The analysis of works of leading foreign scientists suggests that the term “financialization” grew out of the ideology of liberalism in the 1920s and was widespread in the 1990s based on the establishment in the late 1970s — early 1980s of the ideology of neoliberalism. Financialization increases volumes of global financial sector, strengthens its role in the enlarged reproduction of global economy, redistributes in its favor income of global real sector diverting financial resources needed for its development and thus holding back the process of production technological renewal. Countries of the world kernel, financial sector of which plays a leading role in the global financial sector, get the opportunity of redistributing income of real sector of the countries of global periphery in their favor. It is emphasized that introduction of new technological structure creates opportunities for technological development of the periphery countries, but dominance in terms of financialization in the global financial market of speculative capital makes it difficult for them to obtain a reliable source of medium- and long-term loans and investments. Opportunities are created For developed countries to get rid of their previous productions of dominant technological structure by transferring them to less developed countries and conserving the existing technological hierarchy of the global economy by implementing new technological structure of production, which allows us reasonably believe the financialization is a factor to preserve the differentiation of levels of technological development of countries of the world. Two ways to improve technological level of countries of global periphery are analyzed: way of catching up development and way of advancing development. The article proves catching up with leading countries and even getting ahead of them becomes possible only when moving from the “pursuit curve” to “lead motion” innovative technologies are introduced before them. This opportunity to make technological leap for the periphery countries according to the Kondratiev “long waves” occurs once every in 50-60 years and requires relevant scientific, technological, financial base and leads to serious life changes of the whole society. It proves that the only entity for making such technological leap is the national state.

20

Authors: Zoryana Lutsyshyn, Natalia Kravchuk

From the compositional point of view, research on this topic has revealed two main directions: (1) an analysis of global development asymmetry that has activated gravitational processes in geo-economic space; and (2) a direction that focuses on the profound study of the causes for heterogeneity in geo-economic space and divergence in global development under the influence of gravitational factors of nature on the endogenousexogenous axis. Systemic determinants of gravitational processes are revealed in geo- economic space and the asymmetry of global activate ravitional processes in geo-economic space are observed, and methodological interconnectedness coinfluence of two complementary determinants of global development – convergence and divergence and the contradiction between them are examined, which at the same time underlie the inevitable internal contradictions of the process, creating conditions for further configuration of the «new globalization community», which is built on the principles of nonlinear dynamics and logic gravitational processes in geo-economic space.Taking into account the relevant uncertainties, the attention is focused on the isolation of several myths around which the debate that has important methodological significance in the context of the current global inter-system transformations is held. Geostrategic matrix divergence of global development is produced,which is based on techniques which incorporated cluster analysisthat are built on linguistic variables and integrated analysis of the key trends of country and global development geostrategic position of Ukraine in geo-economic space in the projection on the issues of global inter-system transformations isoutlined .It is proved that the level of gravity load increases in the deepening of the global asymmetries , and that the current global transformation is not yet complete, and polycentric new architecture geospace is not formed. In the near future we should expect the growth of gravitational processes in geo-economic space under the influence of fragmentation in information technology development countries, worsening energy problems, strengthening of the environmental risks and disasters, adverse trends sociodemographic. The divergence of global development will be strengthened as institutional «failure» and socio-cultural constraints. These aspects should be the subject of research and theoretical basis for the formation of new approaches to global development.

21

Authors: Viktoriia Gurova

The paper represents a research of theoretical principles for determining national innovation systems, as well as analyzes performance results displayed by national innovation systems of the leading countries in the global innovation space, while also describing characteristic features thereof and formulating recommendations for NIS build-up based on the same, implementation of which should serve as the basis of the national innovation system effective performance. It has been determined that at the current stage of global economy development such factors as science, technology and innovation play an important role in formation of a competitive economy. It has been established that the overall funding level with respect to science proves one of the key characteristics of an innovative country, and therefore NIS performance analysis was carried out based on the national expenditure indicator regarding research and development as well as on the country's position in the Global Innovation Index. The analysis carried out showed that the NISs of certain countries were more efficient than those of the others due to peculiarities of the innovative system elements that can be further referred to as determinants of building an effective national innovation system of a country.

25

Authors: Ahmed Shahid, Ismail Saba

This paper has made an attempt to examine relationship between military expenditure and economic growth using 56 country panel data spanning over 1995—2011. Panel fixed effect model has been estimated for all 56 countries and sub-groups classified on the basis of World Bank income criteria. The results of this study indicate a positive effect of military expenditure on economic growth but this positive effect is negligible compared to the alternative uses of scare resources on non-military expenditure. Thus, the effect of military expenditure on economic growth is very low compared to the effect of expenditure on capital formation, hence military expenditure as a sub-optimal means of increasing economic growth compared to alternative uses of government spending on formation of fixed capital. This study raises an important argument of huge opportunity cost of military expenditure. The present study concludes that the boosting of economic growth through higher military expenditure is neither effective nor efficient way of achieving higher growth in the economy.