Predicción Temprana de la Condición “Neutral”, de “Niño” o “Niña” de la Temporada de Huracanes en el Atlántico en Función del Valor del Índice ONI del Mes de Enero
Authors: Rafael Bécemberg
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It is undeniable that the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is exposed to significant risks presenting a high vulnerability associated with the large concentration of population that is settled in areas without urban planning, specifically in the northern coastal strip, exposed to a set of threats, both natural and anthropic, among which are those of the oceanographic and climatic type whose study is little developed in the country, which could be justified by the fact that its influence is relatively moderate compared to others countries
Among the most relevant "threats" is the one associated with the phenomenon El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is undoubtedly the most important interannual climate variability that has been identified at the present time, due to the effects that has on the weather conditions both in the vicinity and in places very distant from their place of origin, especially on parameters such as water temperature, marine currents, wind patterns, rainfall regime, and in general on economic and human activities, being in fact, responsible for a large part of the changes that occur year after year in local weather conditions in many regions of the world.
In this work we found a relationship that allows us to forecast with a high level of certainty what a year will be like, from the point of view of whether it will be a "El Niño" year, a "La Niña" year or a "Neutral" year with the associated considerations regarding the number and intensity of the phenomena that could occur during the study period, highlighting the fact that the prediction can be made without using large and complicated climate models, using only the data of the sea surface temperature anomalies that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) periodically registers in the Pacific Ocean.