Growth and Instability Analysis of Rice Production and Export of Pakistan
Authors: Muhammad Abdullah, Jia li, Sidra Ghazanfar, Jaleel Ahmed, Imran Khan
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Rice is an important crop for Pakistan because it is a source of earning foreign exchange for its economy. This study was conducted with two objectives; (a) to analyze the pattern of growth and instability in production, area, yield, export quantity, and export value of Pakistani rice and (b) to determine the relationship between production, export quantity and area in Pakistan for rice crop. For the analysis, the time series data from the year of 1972 to 2011 regarding rice production, area under rice, rice export quantity and value were obtained to calculate the compound growth rate, coefficient of variation for the stated variables and to find relationship between the stated variables. The results revealed that the overall compound growth rates for rice production, area and yield were found to be positive and showed annual growth rate of 6.81%; 5.43% and 1.30% respectively. The instability analysis was applied by using the coefficient of variation calculation and the results showed that the rice production, area and yield were found to be considerably instable as the overall coefficient of variation values were found to be 30.06 %, 15.62% and 14.48% respectively. In terms of growth rate of rice exports quantity and rice export value, the compound growth rates for the overall period were found to be 15.80% and 30.06% respectively. The instability analysis was also applied by computing coefficient of variation for the rice export quantity and rice export value in dollars terms and the results revealed that in the overall period very high instability in rice export quantity and rice export value was observed as the values were found to be 58.76% and 89.32% per year respectively.