O USO DO MODELO VAR NA DETERMINAÇÃO DO PREÇO DE BOVINOS VIVOS NO PERÍODO DE 1995-2014
Authors: Mateus Boldrine Abrita, Allan Silveira dos Santos, Gercina Gonçalves da Silva
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The meat market is of great importance to the Brazilian economy. Thus, the objective is to analyze how the GDP, workers' in comes, exports and slaughter of cows interfere with arroba price of cattle in Brazil from 1995 until 2014, for such a methodology of models was used auto regression VAR. The study hypothesis is that the number of cows slaughtered in periods prior to analysis, is also an important source for determining prices in the current period. This variable should be lagged, as arise in the slaughter of cows occurs today and these fail to produce calves the market impact will be a few years a head, when the calf was at the point of slaughter. The results indicate that all variables impact arroba of cattle according to economic logic of the system. GDP, exports and positively impact revenue, since the slaughter of females has a negative impact in the shorttermand positively in the medium term.